online polling doesn't have a good track record, and the nanos polls were taken over the long weekend. you can see the conservatives snapped back to almost 29 this morning when the wednesday numbers were included (he's doing three day rolling averages, remember). the forum polling has been unusual for a long time and i'm not sure what to make of it; it seems to me that they're underreporting their margins, but i couldn't tell you how or why (perhaps their ivr system is flawed). it's less that there's a specific trend and more that there's a wider range of outcomes.

i'm still looking at the last ekos poll as the most accurate recent snapshot, but that should hopefully change over the next few days.

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/08/stephen-harper-federal-election-2015-projections_n_8105740.html

Suleyka Montpetit
The only change you can be hopeful for is the downward trend of the Conservative. The house of cards is falling down and everyone can see it.

Jessica Amber Murray
the lowest that the conservatives have ever polled in the history of the country is a little above 29% [if you take into account the split in the 90s, and the liberal-conservative voting patterns in the late 1800s]. polls that put them below 29% are consequently historic in scope. i may agree that harper has been a poor prime minister, but it's another thing to suggest that conservatism is at such depths. if that is true, then this election is not about stephen harper. it's about something more fundamental.

i don't claim that they're polling much higher than that. and i suspect that you may see some other parties on their right increase their vote share, especially in the west: the christian heritage party, or perhaps the libertarian party.

but it is very, very hard to believe that the conservatives are polling under 28 - because they never have before. ever. or, at least not without fracturing themselves into multiple components.

Cav
your comments and opinion would have far more credibility if you knew proper grammar and punctuation. This isn't teenage texting hour. Do you know what a 'capital' letter is?

Jessica Amber Murray
that's some fighting words from a sheridan college graduate. i refuse to capitalize! i am an anti-capitalist, an alphabetical egalitarian and a general grammar anti-authoritarian. i will flaunt the dictates of any and all centralized grammar authorities - and with reckless, wanton abandon.