the results are too bunched to declare a movement from the ndp to the conservatives with any certainty; it's all in the margins. and, i'd hazard a guess that the conservatives were merely underpolling at the end of the vacation season, so there's an alternate explanation for their movement upwards. but, if you expand the ranges out properly, you see a clear decrease for the ndp and a less clear increase for the conservatives. of course, the bloc are also up.

then again, if conservatives were underpolling due to being away on vacation, the same logic may suggest the ndp were simply overpolling for the same reason. the lesson may merely be that summer polls are sketchy. and we already knew that.

i mean, yeah, it looks that way on first glance; i don't deny that, and i don't claim otherwise with any force. i'm just pointing out that it's just not actually clear, yet. we'll find out next week if a trend actually develops or not. but, multiple polls have pegged the potential ndp-conservative swing around 3-5%, so there's really not a lot of movement to play with.

that said, "immigration" is pretty much the only way this happens. it's the one way that the conservatives can get into the "tim horton's socialist" part of the ndp voting base. i pointed this out a few weeks ago. but, one would expect to see the offset in ontario, if that were true. rather, it seems to be mostly happening in rural bc and in quebec. in quebec, this is easy to understand. in rural bc, i would seek an alternate explanation.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-poll-tracker-sep28-1.3247187