again: we need some polling.

i suspect that even harper & kenney are only running the mid to high 40s right now.

there was a mainstreet poll released last night that put the conservative vote in edmonton centre down 40%, as i have been proposing. but, i would have suggested the liberals were leading. it turns out the ndp were the biggest beneficiary.

the conservative vote is stable, so you can do the math i'm doing with a non-uniform proportional swing. but, the liberal & ndp votes are all over the place, so we need direct riding polls to figure out where they are. don't trust the models on this.

i would guess that there are at least ten ridings in alberta in play right now.

sorry, that was edmonton mill woods.

well, it was...

it was both.

gah. no coffee.

if you look up the mainstreet polls released last night, you'll see what i mean about the 40% cut v. the 20% cut.

just get some riding polls out. all of calgary. all of edmonton.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-alberta-calgary-petty-1.3269499

hahaiquit
millwoods is mostly Muslim, Stepehn Harper don't stand a chance, even here in mostly conservative St, Albert have yet to see any support for Harper, it liberal orange wave

jessica murray
that's a nice excuse, but the numbers in edmonton centre better fit my model, as well. & i believe st. albert is the one where rathberger is splitting the vote so it's outside of the argument.

harper won milllwoods last time with over 60%. the models had them down 20% at 45%. they are actually down 40% at 36%.

that's a big drop. and the models completely missed it. it's hardly due solely to muslim immigration over the last four years. but keep digging your grave on that, if you must.

there is no way to make sense of the numbers other than to conclude that virtually the entire cities of edmonton and calgary are in play. there's only so much time left to organize and make sure the vote doesn't get split.

it would be an amazing victory to throw out kenney or harper, or both.