Sunday, January 28, 2018

i will accept the argument that qe might have an effect in preventing deflation, which is what you would actually expect in a situation where:

1) the money is trickling up.
2) the population is increasing.
3) the money supply is stagnant.

in that situation, more mouths to feed and less money to go around should lead to deflation, as people have less to spend - or it least it should under market conditions. and, people are probably actually going to mark the food down if people can't pay for it, yes.

the elite might not care, except that the corollary of such a situation is civil unrest, and that's likely the actual reason underlying the policy.

but, it also cuts to the criticism that obama's stimulus was too small. i mean, i'm sure he had lots of political discussions about the size of the stimulus, and how it might be a liability for fiscally conservative democrats. but, the numbers picked were lower than suggested - and lower than the near simultaneous stimulus announced by the chinese, who seem to have been legitimately concerned about growth.

america's stimulus seems to have rather been about preventing deflation. meaning that this qe was just designed to stop the ship from sinking, not get it up and sailing again. meaning that even if you have faith in the market to set things right once the government has intervened, a faith borne out of zero evidence, and a faith that i do not hold, it still follows that the stimulus that is being withdrawn was too small to put the market on the right footing, in the first place.

to be clear: i'm going to argue that the economy needs stimulus all of the time, no matter what and that qe should be permanent. more moderate keynesians will suggest that the government only needs to intervene when investment dries up, and that once the economy is back on it's feet, the stimulus can be withdrawn. ok. but, even those that accept the more moderate position are mostly going to argue that the stimulus was too small to get the economy back on it's feet, and was really only enough to put off the inevitable deflationary spiral that going bareback for too long will inevitably produce.

this is bad policy, all around. and, i know the business press has it's head stuck up it's ass. but wait for it.

this is the reason that they tell you that leftists don't understand the economy.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.