Friday, December 13, 2019

let me clarify a point.

i'm not saying we should try to squirm our way out of nafta, or something. i fully grasp the importance of nafta to the economy, for better or worse. i grasp the imperative to not end nafta.

but, i think we could have waited this out, and i think our timing for ratification is based more around the personal ambitions of the actors than the actual interests of the country. this could have been an election issue, and might still be one. there may be a better deal at the end of this.

i mentioned before that, from what i can see of it, it's a wash - the focus on lifting mexican labour standards is long overdue, but the continued insistence on these investor-state dispute mechanisms, instead of courts, could threaten local sovereignty near the border(s), which are also disproportionately indigenous. you would have to do some complex modelling to try to balance these things, and the few studies i've seen essentially do balance them out - i think the general perception is that mexico will be a tad better off and canada a tad worse, but it's round-off error on both sides. so, you have to just kind of go along with it. as mentioned, the important thing is making sure the deal doesn't collapse.

i'm still in favour of moving slowly on ratification, and letting the process play out, fully.