i had to nap a little.
these are the existing popular vote numbers:
sanders - 28.49%, 163082
buttigieg - 23.28%, 133252
klobuchar - 15.24%, 87250
buttigieg - 23.28%, 133252
klobuchar - 15.24%, 87250
warren - 12.94%, 74040
biden - 11.83%, 67695
i know that it's the delegates that matter, but this is maybe a better metric, to understand what's going to happen in these states on tuesday that have barely been polled at all.
south carolina is the biggest state so far, it is true. and, a very, very strong showing could potentially pull him up into second place.
but, if he polls in the low 30s, he could very well win south carolina and still find himself in third in the popular vote, even if he catches buttigieg in delegates.
i don't think he's going to get a bounce, anyways. apparently, the dominant factor in the polling reversal is the endorsement of jim clyburn (who is 79 years old.), which is very specific to the state, itself.
but, he's going to have to win by a convincing number to even catch up to second, going in to super tuesday - and then he has to face a broader, non-black electorate that he has tended to poll 4th or 5th in.
but, if he polls in the low 30s, he could very well win south carolina and still find himself in third in the popular vote, even if he catches buttigieg in delegates.
i don't think he's going to get a bounce, anyways. apparently, the dominant factor in the polling reversal is the endorsement of jim clyburn (who is 79 years old.), which is very specific to the state, itself.
but, he's going to have to win by a convincing number to even catch up to second, going in to super tuesday - and then he has to face a broader, non-black electorate that he has tended to poll 4th or 5th in.