we knew biden was going to do well with black voters.

but, it seems like biden didn't do nearly as well as clinton did, let alone as well as obama did. it's not yet clear if he got over some imaginary line or not.

- black turnout seems to be down, overall

- biden's percentage of that reduced black vote is much lower than clinton's, more than 20 points lower

- youth turnout appears to be down

sanders has every right to be crushed, and he sounds crushed. he just spent five years campaigning here, and might not crack 20%. but - and i'm sorry - he only ever had one tactic, which was to split the vote, and he refused to take it, instead insisting that he could win the votes of people that have made it clear for his whole life that they don't like him.

if black turnout ends up down across the board, that pulls biden's argument out from under the rug. i never thought this was a good argument in the first place. but if your argument is that biden is required to maximize black turnout, and he comes in with decreased black turnout, he's clearly a losing candidate in the general. so, i'd like to see a breakdown of white voters, who the numbers state are the more important demographic in the general.

the most important takeaway here is that biden wasn't able to get black voters out in high numbers.

if these numbers hold, biden will get a lot of delegates, but i don't think it will give him much of a bounce, and i'd still expect him to finish fairly far down the list in most states on tuesday.

let's see if we get any polling...