so, what's the polling update, then?
it would appear as though steyer is falling, and biden is gaining those votes back. if these polling numbers hold, biden will win in a landslide.
if. we've seen this before. but, i'm not going to make numbers up - the polling says what it does.
this is the first example we've seen of what i was saying about bernie's competitiveness being a sort of a mirage - he's only appearing to do well because the vote is so badly split. any consolidation will see him leapfrogged.
if. we've seen this before. but, i'm not going to make numbers up - the polling says what it does.
this is the first example we've seen of what i was saying about bernie's competitiveness being a sort of a mirage - he's only appearing to do well because the vote is so badly split. any consolidation will see him leapfrogged.
really, the story in new hampshire and nevada was that the centre of the party couldn't pull it together behind one candidate, allowing sanders to win with a rather small plurality. if new hampshire would have decided on either buttigieg or klobuchar, they would have won by a large margin. likewise, if iowa or nevada would have gone all in on buttigieg (biden got under 15% in all but two counties; buttigieg was really the more competitive candidate, overall, despite underperforming with white voters in las vegas).
so, bernie may get beaten very badly here, if the split undoes itself. and, that may happen over and over again in these southern states, if they've come back to biden, in the end, and are sticking with him. but, that doesn't mean sanders is done....
black voters in the south may expect moderate northern and western voters to fall in line behind biden. i think it's increasingly clear that that's not going to happen, not any more than the opposite did.
so, rather, what's opening up is a potential schism in the moderate wing of the party, with southern blacks insisting on biden and the rest of the country increasingly settling on buttigieg, who still appears likely to do well everywhere except the south.
for right now, the thing in front of us, immediately, is south carolina and the polling does seem to suggest a landslide victory for biden, driven by a consolidation of the black church vote.
but, unlike previous cycles, there appears to be little evidence that this is going to clinch him much of anything, or even that the rest of he country is going to take much notice about who south carolina votes for at all.
so, bernie may get beaten very badly here, if the split undoes itself. and, that may happen over and over again in these southern states, if they've come back to biden, in the end, and are sticking with him. but, that doesn't mean sanders is done....
black voters in the south may expect moderate northern and western voters to fall in line behind biden. i think it's increasingly clear that that's not going to happen, not any more than the opposite did.
so, rather, what's opening up is a potential schism in the moderate wing of the party, with southern blacks insisting on biden and the rest of the country increasingly settling on buttigieg, who still appears likely to do well everywhere except the south.
for right now, the thing in front of us, immediately, is south carolina and the polling does seem to suggest a landslide victory for biden, driven by a consolidation of the black church vote.
but, unlike previous cycles, there appears to be little evidence that this is going to clinch him much of anything, or even that the rest of he country is going to take much notice about who south carolina votes for at all.