Friday, February 28, 2020

i'll just remind you about the demographics in the remaining deep south states.

these are 2016 results:

arkansas: 80% white. 66% clinton.
tennessee: 67% white. 66% clinton.
texas: 46% white. 66% clinton.
virginia: 61% white. 64% clinton.

so, skin colour did not seem to be a predictor factor in 2016 at all, actually - about the same number of people voted for clinton, regardless of the demographics of the state.

that might be a little different this time, oddly. biden really only seems to be polling well with blacks - nobody else likes him. latin-speaking voters appear to prefer sanders. and, white moderates mostly want buttigieg.

biden could very well see himself win south carolina in a landslide, and then barely register in almost all of the super tuesday states.

i hear bloomberg is polling well in alabama, too.

it's increasingly becoming clear that we're going to wake up to a mess on wednesday.