Tuesday, September 22, 2015

the ad is actually clearly geared at what should be tory-bloc swing voters that may be currently leaning ndp out of groupthink. remember that the bloc was initially a conservative party splinter group, so it's always had a right-wing side in the party. this swing would be represented in provincial politics by the adq, although of course the pq have not been shy about trying to swing them over the last several years, either. a quick glance at the numbers would suggest that the ndp is likely attracting quite a bit of support from right-leaning voters, as even the most generous tabulations of conservative + bloc results are well under adq levels.

sure: it's a last gasp for dead air. but, it maybe offers a little insight into internal bloc polling as to what is left of their voting base and who may benefit from further erosion in it. it seems to imply that they have nothing left to lose on the left side of their base. i don't think the idea of remnant bloc support bleeding to the conservatives has been considered by many people, but perhaps it should be.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/18/voting-ndp-means-a-pipeline-of-niqabs-bloc-attack-ad/