vox populi
Whats with the Nanos polls ? They are the only polls that are putting the conservatives ahead. It makes you wonder who they are contacting !

jessica murray
that's not actually true. the ekos polling is also putting the conservatives ahead. and, you'll notice something: nanos & ekos (& forum...) are the only pollsters that are still utilizing random sampling. i don't like what nanos is telling us either, but the reality is that his polling is superior - so long as it's looked at purely federally. it's the local results that poll watchers need to see, and nanos' polling is useless on that (because the sample sizes are too small).

the most recent forum poll finally aligned with the consensus from polls using proper sampling techniques, which is that decided voters are hurling us towards a conservative minority - but undecided voters have the power to put either the liberals or ndp ahead, if they lean in a specific direction in the right places.

the point is that, while you're correct to suggest that there's a disconnect, you're not taking the scientific side of that disconnect. the unfortunate reality is that the traditional and more reliable polling firms have had harper polling more or less steady around 29-31 the whole time, and the media is confusing people by suggesting otherwise on the backs of citing polls of questionable methodology.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-pollcast-sep22-1.3238790