i would take any predictions in quebec at this point with a grain of salt. we're going to be seeing splits and upsets all over the place in ways the models are not robust enough to pull out.

but, as far as i can tell, there's really not any reason to think the conservative or bloc totals will be significantly different than they were in 2011. a point or two one way or the other.

the only big movement seems to be somewhere between a ten and a fifteen point swing from the ndp to the liberals. this will help the liberals in montreal, and the odd riding outside it. it may also help the conservatives in a seat or two around quebec city. but it's going to help the bloc dramatically, even if they only manage to get what they got last time.

the forum poll released this morning should raise some eyebrows, in it's projection of 19 seats for the bloc. that's way higher than anybody else (except me) has suggested. i'm going to expect between 10-30.

the reason is that the movement from ndp--->liberals is going to open up a lot of seats for the bloc, even with the bloc staying put or even being down a little. something that got lost in the shuffle of the ndp pulling in bloc support was that the ndp also got a hefty ten point swing from the liberals. there were a lot of close ndp-bloc races. you take away that ten point liberal swing, or even increase the reversal to 15, and these ndp seats start melting away into the st. lawerence, mostly in favour of the bloc.

the models will have a hard time with this. but, with that 10-15 point swing from the ndp to the liberals, all the bloc need to do is run somewhere in the low 20s to win a substantial number of seats back. 19 is probably about right, in terms of what to expect.

and, i'll say this again - with the liberals running ahead of the ndp now, apparently, it's hard to see how the ndp win outremont, which is mulcair's seat.

the cbc model has a clause in it that gives party leaders an advantage. it's the kind of thing that's probably true, most of the time. but outremont is one of the most liberal seats in the country. and, mulcair was of course a quebec liberal cabinet minister - which likely is a big part of the reason he was able to win the riding in the first place.

now that the dust has settled, and the liberals are in reach of a strong minority or even a majority, it seems obvious that outremont should swing, party leader or not.

and that's going to have a big effect on how the parliament operates, in the case of a liberal minority.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-quebec-split-michelle-gagnon-1.3272915

Mo
harper surging in quebec? somebody's got their hat on too tight!

jessica murray
there was a blip in the polls about the same time that the niqab thing came up. it didn't sustain itself. it was probably just sampling error.

but, it's a good lesson in two truths:

1) day-to-day polling can be erratic.
2) you can't trust the media to interpret polls.