there's going to be wide variability. it's going to be all over the place. it's part of the reason these things are so hard to predict.

but, my own feeling about how the results of your average precinct will look are going to be something like this on the first ballot:

biden: 25%

sanders: 23%

buttigieg: 20%

---------------------------

warren: 14%

klobuchar: 14%

rest: 4%

to be clear - i think warren is going to miss a lot of cut-off points. i think this is a three-way race, not a two-way race. and, i think klobuchar will almost catch her, or even beat her.

....in iowa. specifically.

where do those numbers go? 

i know people want to think that warren supporters will go to sanders, but they're missing the point about why they're not supporting sanders in the first place. the data i've seen actually suggests that a lot of warren voters are going to go to buttigieg first, and then sanders and biden in roughly equally numbers.

klobuchar's numbers will mostly split between buttigieg and biden.

and, let's give sanders a slight bias for the remaining 4, to be fair.

so, the second round looks like this:

biden: 25 + 3 (warren) + 6 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 35
buttigieg: 20 + 8 (warren) + 6 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 35
sanders: 23 + 3 (warren) + 2 (klobuchar) + 2 (rest) = 30

that's what i think your average district looks like on the second ballot, if warren fails to meet the threshold, which i think she will more often than not.

but, what if i'm wrong and she surprises me? then you'd end up with something like this:

biden: 25 + 4 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 31
sanders: 23 + 2 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 26
buttigieg: 20 + 4 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 25
warren: 15 + 4 (klobuchar) + 1 (rest) = 20

i think that's more in line with the broad perception, right now. and, you can see the general benefit that sanders gains from having warren in the race, even if this wasn't the cabal's intent - democrats that won't vote for him will vote for her.

but, i think there's a lot of reasons to think that warren is going to do very badly tomorrow and more or less need to end her candidacy next week. we'll find out...