Wednesday, May 19, 2021

to be clear: while it does certainly seem to be the case that trump thought that restricting russian exports to germany is in american interests, that "logic" is really exactly what it appears it is: this is trumpism, and it can only be comprehended, however incoherently, through a trumpist filter.

trump's logic is something along the lines of that commerce should be restricted between germany and russia in order to maintain american influence over the region, and that germany should be punished for acting outside of american hegemony by seeking trade relations with outside actors. ok. but, you'd have to be an oligarch to think that actually makes sense.

if you're looking at the situation as a chess board, in a geostrategic manner, which trump was unable to do, your goal is not to prevent the russians from engaging in commercial activity with the actors around it, but rather to find ways to extract as much out of the country as is possible. it would follow that exporting resources from the former soviet union to the western satellites is in western interests because the west gets to use those resources rather than the russians. the russian self-interest here would actually be to hoard the resources - which is what the chinese are doing. it further follows that an american military presence is necessary in europe to protect those extracted resources, and ensure they are developed in the west, rather than in russia.

i've been over this more than a few times: i basically think that putin is a contemptible fool, with a very poor grasp of strategy, and this idea that he's some kind of strategic genius is essentially just western propaganda, designed to construct an enemy to justify military budgets.

so, if russia were acting in it's self-interest, it would act to prevent the export of these raw materials, and seek to develop the industry in russia, instead. but, it isn't. and, the properly rationalistic policy from the west is to take advantage of that by encouraging the russians to export as much as they can, for as cheap as they can, so that those resources belong to us, rather than them.

it follows that biden's policy of supporting german purchases of russian gas is a rational, pro-western policy, and the fake left media just exists in lalaland in suggesting otherwise - as always.