in canada, what you have is a small bloc on the right and a much larger bloc on the left. and, while you get intense competition inside of these blocs, that is intra-species competition, you get virtually no competition between the blocs at all.

it's really a perfectly divided society, in that way.

so, when you adjust properly for turnout, you can see 15-20% swings between the parties on the left. but, you'll never see more than a few percentage points worth of change between parties on the left and on the right.

the fact is that the liberals are not in competition with the conservatives in this election, or any other. they are mostly in competition with their own voting base, which they have developed a habit of attacking. they're losing not to this village idiot andy (can i call you andy? no? fuck you.) scheer, but rather to their own rhetoric, which they've utterly failed to live up to.

if turnout is down, you could see the conservative numbers inflated again, as they were in the mid 00s. don't misunderstand that as a movement to the right - it's a statistical trick, an illusion in the numbers.