these are the post-debate numbers, for actual scientific pollsters.

Mainstreet Research     October 10, 2019     16.6     ±2 pp     IVR (rolling)
Nanos Research           October 10, 2019     15.3     ±2.8 pp     telephone (rolling)
EKOS                          October 10, 2019     13.1     ±2.2 pp     telephone/IVR
Mainstreet Research       October 9, 2019     15.1     ±2.04 pp     IVR (rolling)
Nanos Research             October 9, 2019     14.1     ±2.8 pp     telephone (rolling)
Forum Research             October 8, 2019     13        ±3 pp     IVR
Mainstreet Research       October 8, 2019     14.3     ±2 pp     IVR (rolling)
Nanos Research             October 8, 2019     13.4     ±2.8 pp     telephone (rolling)    

nanos has a three point margin. so, a movement from 13.4 to 15.3 is within the margin of error. and, if you look at the pre-debate numbers, you'll see that he has them fluctuating around 13-16 the whole time. so, regardless of the headline, nik is not actually picking up a meaningful signal - although he has had them consistently a little higher than some of the other firms.

mainstreet has a 2 point margin, or so they claim. so, a movement from 14.3 to 16.6 is also in the margin. i would expect to see that fall tomorrow or the next day. mainstreet's numbers appear to be converging with nik's, which is a good thing, but it doesn't indicate movement.

forum and ekos have them at 13, which appears to be on the lower end of the scale.

but, the range is 10-19, and that's not a difference compared to the pre-debate numbers.

the ndp will probably lose almost all of their seats east of the rockies.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this