i understand that the graph isn't perfect.

but, the up and down nature of it (no plateau of sustained levels) is pretty strongly suggestive of the lockdown having almost no effect.

this is just one city, and i must concede that new york was often presented in the modeling as the worst case scenario, as what happens when you do nothing at all - despite the fact that they did in fact do quite a bit. so, if it turns out that the actions taken by statist authorities had little to no effect on the outcome in new york, that may actually have minimal forecasting effects for other cities, for the reason that they acted too late; we don't yet know whether the numbers we're seeing in new york are proof of the futility of acting against the virus, or just evidence that they were too slow to act. we'll need to see the numbers in other cities, first.

but, they're saying now that there were thousand of cases in new york as early as january, meaning it took months to actually ramp up like this. what that means is if you're a city like toronto which we think is weeks behind new york, and you're watching your numbers tick up from 30ish to 50ish, this graph should scare the hell out of you.

one thing that we appear to have learned from this week is that immunity was high enough in new york to prevent an easter spike, but wasn't in detroit. it seems like toronto isn't far enough along the curve to be able to even detect an easter spike, yet.

this could be a vicious week here, in eastern canada. and, i suspect it will be. so, despite confusing messages, it's more important to be careful in ontario if you're at high risk than ever before.

whatever the effects of the quarantine end up being here in the end, i hope that locking down too early doesn't have the effect of creating lockdown fatigue. but, if people don't understand the risk this causes the elderly at this point, will they ever?

right now, convincing examples of bent curves are almost non-existent - almost everywhere, we're seeing peaks and falls or slower ramp ups than initially thought. but, it will be this week and the next that the regions that locked down as early as possible will get to the point in the curve where you can start to really make more serious deductions.

i hope that the loss of life is minimal.

but, eastern canada should brace for the worst.

thankfully, it seems clear that we have.