Tuesday, August 11, 2020

i almost tricked myself into posting an argument about the child ifr using total case statistics, which would be misleading at best.

but, do you want real world stats, here? empirical probabilities?

i don't know how many children have contracted the coronavirus in california right now, but there has been a total of one death. it seems that roughly 17% of the population in california is under 18. if we naively assume that 17% of the 600,000 cases are in children, that is 102,000 cases. 1/102000 = 0.00000980392 = 0.000980392%.

those are not quite real world numbers; an ifr would need to be calculated from actual cases, which are probably closer to six million than 600,000. but, it is clear that even if a few more children perish, the empirically derived, real world probability is going to remain infinitessimally small.

the facts are that the ifr is just so low.....

with kids, it really is least concern. but, it's real - and expect your kid to get sick, and to need to take precautions regarding that, at least.