Thursday, August 6, 2020

so, i went looking for an official ifr for kids, and it seems to be a standard practice right now to refer to the ifr for not just kids but "young adults" in general as "close to zero". here is one example:

The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3 percent for ages 50-59, 1.3 percent for ages 60-69, 4.6 percent for ages 70-79, and 25 percent for ages 80 and above. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v2

that appears to be about as close as i'm going to get, right now.

so, 0.05% is probably a high estimate. but, when you start pushing the ifr much lower than that, you're just competing with error for results - it's effectively 0%, statistically.

no, that doesn't mean that the odd kid won't die; so long as the ifr is non-zero, which it clearly is, at least one kid will die. and, i'm sure the cameras will be on it like vultures on a carcass.

but, it's a number, and you need to plug in numbers if you want answers.