Wednesday, August 19, 2020

this is the most ridiculous nonsense...

if the russians move in in any serious way, and i do actually think they should, it's not going to be as simple as removing a dictator (and lukashenko is legitimately a dictator) and putting in a foreign-backed puppet. the discourse is so far removed from reality, that it's not even worth debunking.

rather, if the russians get triggered, they are likely to bring in the kind of strategic and structural changes that they brought to syria.

so, that would mean:

1) closer military cooperation between minsk and moscow (if that's possible)
2) replacing lukashenko with somebody around him as a temporary leader. i don't know the situation well enough to make suggestions, but it would probably be a military leader.
3) stabilizing the region from foreign influence
4) fresh elections

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/18/lukashenko-putin-russia-belarus-tsar/