remember: trump is not winning because he's crazy and people like it. he's winning because he was controlling the center of the republican spectrum. he was the buffer against the crazies. and the more advertising was thrown into cruz, the better trump looked.
when the field was split a dozen ways, it was rational to support trump if your goal was solely to defeat cruz because he was the only candidate that seemed like he had a real shot of doing it. but, now that there is only one serious option (kasich), there is a possibility that the support will coalesce. i had initially bet on this happening around bush, and a little earlier, but he spliced and ran before the fight even started.
kasich just needed a trickle to form, in order for it to build into a stream.
kasich should be favoured in virtually every remaining state. he could conceivably run the table. it's not cruz v trump, with kasich splitting. it's trump v kasich, with cruz splitting - but beneficially.
put another way: cruz won't be able to cut into centrist support for trump. but, kasich will be able to peel it off quite easily, if it looks like he can actually win.
in fact, i'm going to call it right now (i'm allowed to change my mind): kasich sweeps the northeast on april 26th.
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but, the point is that none of the candidates were reflective of the voters' will. so, do a country-wide IRV with the three remaining candidates.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/john_kasich_is_trying_to_destroy_the_gop_primary_process.html