yeah. i'm sorry. i'm hungry, and sick, and impatient and jumpy - i should have looked at this a little more closely before i posted.

look at this picture:

it's movement from 13 to 18, if you start at 13. but, it's not movement from 13 to 18 if you start at 15, which is what should actually be done here. i (accidentally) cherry picked the data. a better picture of it indicates that, while 18 is at the top of the range, it's nothing to get excited about, just yet.

it's maybe the very beginning of movement. or it's maybe just a trick in the sample.

so, i'm not conceding a signal, after all; i'm only conceding that there is evidence of a signal developing.

you've gotta give this a few more days. so, let's lay down conditions before hand.

if the next batch of sample comes in and the ndp is higher than 20%, then that's signal. if it flops around at 18-19%, then the signal is fading. and, if it falls down, it's just fluctuation around the mean - and likely explained by the long weekend, rather than the debate or a bradley effect.

what that does, perhaps, is give us a better understanding of where they're actually at.

so, calm down.

we're not under imminent threat of the magic beard veto, just yet.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this