well, we have some more data to play with. i'm going to do a little update.
june 5
a few weeks ago, i would have suggested that puerto rico should favour clinton because it's offshore. since then, we've seen that logic fail to pan out - and we've also learned that clinton doesn't really have any meaningful advantage with hispanics, except in closed primaries, which is more of a reflection on class than on language. puerto rico is an open primary and it doesn't have the wealthy, educated (and older...) hispanic voters that have backed clinton in places like florida. so, sanders really ought to be given a fighting chance, here. let's be a little more optimistic than we should be and say he can win 60%. sanders +12.
june 7
california
some people are making note of the fact that oregon wasn't a blowout, but the more important thing to pull out is that it's actually the first closed primary that sanders has won in the whole process. let's say that independents in california can hit 30% of the vote, and sanders can win 75% of them - not unreasonable numbers. then, assuming that democrats vote the same way they did in oregon, you'd get the following percentage of voters for sanders:
.55*.7 + .75*.3 = 61%. so, a big win is really perfectly reasonable.
now, let's be a little optimistic: let's say the state erupts and you get independents at 40% of the vote, and he wins 80% of them. well....
.55*.6 + .8*.4 = 65%. so, we see diminishing returns. but, let's take that 65% as a less than absurd possibility. sanders +143.
that's sanders +155.
new jersey
new jersey allows independents to vote, so the closest thing to it that we can base information on would have to be rhode island, where sanders got to 55%. but, new jersey has been hit hard by deindustrialization, too. so, let's be optimistic and go for 60%. sanders +26.
that's sanders +181.
montana & the dakotas
well, he did well in the surrounding states, so why not project 75%? sanders +29.
that's sanders +210.
new mexico & dc
these are both closed primaries, and the data is pretty clear about what happens to sanders in closed primaries, everywhere except the most progressive state in the country. i previously strongly suggested that sanders has to win dc as a statement on his ability to win liberal blacks, but the closed primary rules have demonstrated themselves far too restrictive to even contemplate it. if she loses a closed primary in dc, she should conclude her coalition has completely evaporated and immediately withdraw. clinton +20.
let's round it down to sanders +175. the current difference is around clinton +275. so, the end result is clinton +100. let's say it's under 100: 90, 80 - something like that.
so, does he have any chance of winning? not by the delegate count.
but, let's say that he actually pulls that off and keeps her to under 100 in pledged delegates. there's 4051 delegates. 100/4051 = 2.5%.
is that really a win for clinton? if she can't win independents, anywhere? if she gets hammered on the last day? if she has no momentum at all? where do you draw the line at a functional draw?
i think the democratic party has broadcast it's plans pretty clearly; his chance of getting the nomination are not slim, they're infinitesimal. but, he does still have the opportunity to make them look incredibly stupid in forcing them to cut off their collective noses to spite their collective faces.
and, cruz may end up being right about something after all: those responsible for trump's victory will be judged very harshly.