this is wrong.

it's probably true that incumbents are hard to beat in the united states, across the board - because the districts are so heavily gerrymandered to ensure stasis. even in a republican state, the democrat districts are....they're designed to be democrat districts. they just set it up so there's less of them.

in canada, it depends on the type of election. we saw this in the last federal election: popular sitting mps got turfed in what was a liberal sweep. i don't think anybody expected people like paul dewar or megan leslie to lose their seats. and, the conservatives got crushed in ontario and quebec - many cabinet ministers got turfed.

if the 2018 ontario election is a change election, you want to talk about incumbency being a disadvantage. people seem to want to clean house.

i consequently think that this might actually help them - if compelling candidates appear in these ridings, that are able to generate support bases independently of the broader narrative.

it's a big if, granted.

but it's maybe more likely that some fresh blood is going to generate some excitement in these ridings than a vote for the status quo is.

that said, it's also a clear vote of non-confidence in kathleen wynne.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-liberal-incumbents-not-running-1.4606871