liberals: around 160
conservatives: around 140
bloc: around 30
ndp: around 10
green: exactly 2
i also suggested the following:
what is going to happen is that ndp voters are going to swing to the conservatives in urban areas, and the result is that the liberals will win those seats more easily, because the seats were two-way races between the liberals and ndp (these are seats the conservatives are not competitive in).
i undershot this, and i want to correct something i'm hearing on the news. the news is suggesting that ndp voters are swinging to the liberals, and the conservatives ended up winning. that is an intuitive analysis and the numbers don't add up because the conservatives were in third place in all of these ridings - windsor, london, hamilton. if the liberals are in second, and the ndp vote shifts downwards to the liberals, the conservatives would not win. that's wrong.
what is happening is that ndp voters shifted to the conservatives in these ridings in such large numbers that the conservatives actually leapfrogged the liberals into first place. the ndp collapse is not from 40% to 20% in these ridings, it's from 40% to 5% and the movement is dramatically to the conservatives, who are jumping in these ridings from 15% to 55%.
the numbers are still coming in and my initial analysis could still be correct in the end, but if these numbers hold they're stark and startling. actually look at them. it's a giant swing from the ndp to the conservatives, and it's young people driving it.
conservative youth movements like this are scary stuff.