Tuesday, April 29, 2025

i need to put a call out to frank at ekos or nik nanos or somebody else to get this analysis out.

the ndp did not fold into the liberals tonight. i can see enough of an analysis in specific ridings like windsor and hamilton to realize that's false.

the ndp vote bolted hard to the conservative party, and you can see that in the age demographics.

the reason the conservative lost is that carney then showed up and swung conservatives to the liberals. 

this was a complex tango, a two way shift, and not just the destruction of the ndp. we will wake up to a completely altered political spectrum, where the liberals represent older and more conservative voters and the conservatives are the party of youth, hope and future. it's a complete spectrum reversal.