Tuesday, January 6, 2026

the reality in venezuela is that while the "opposition" has commanding support amongst the small upper middle class, which is far more vocal than it's numbers are, they have essentially no support at all in the much larger working class, and what just happened will make it harder for them to win an election, rather than easier. the idea that maduro rigged the elections reduces to a rejection of the proletariat's right to vote in a society that has historically suffered from immense class and wealth divisions, and has been one of the most unequal in the world. the bolivarian movement suffered from corruption at the top, but it did succeed in reducing the extreme levels of inequality that defined pre-chavez venezuela and in making the lives of the proletariat more manageable. this has been at the expense of the upper middle class, which form the opposition, and has been responsible for rioting and violence in the streets as a result of it. 

the numbers are simply not workable for the venezuelan right without a lengthy and sustained propaganda campaign intended to peel working class voters away from chavez' party, and that would be very difficult given the measurable improvements in their material conditions that have taken place over the last several decades. the opposition, the venezuelan right, has no argument and no chance to win.

it's consequently not clear how the united states might manage to steer it's own candidate into power without rigging the elections, themselves. as of the moment, the removal of maduro has not removed chavez' party from power, so there wouldn't appear to be a high likelihood of proletarian revolt. the most likely eventual cause of a shift in power is going to be an election in venezuela that returns chavez' party to power. it's not maduro himself that is popular in venezuela, and i agree he has been in power too long and should step aside for his successor. rather, it is the memory of chavez that has kept maduro in power, and that memory remains, and will likely carry forward to his successor, whether it is the vp or somebody else.

i have yet to see the slightest bit of evidence that maduro is a "narco-terrorist" and my understanding of the reality is that there isn't any evidence of the accusation because it isn't true. it's going to consequently be interesting to watch a trial unfold. it's really the american justice system being put on trial. if they convict maduro of charges that are clearly false based on collusion with the white house and state department, any lingering hope and belief in a functioning american judiciary will cease. that will be the true endpoint for american democracy.

however, if he wins the case (if the charges are even dropped...) there is little reason to think he won't just fly back to venezuela and call an election, and you can be sure he'll win that election, due to what just happened. nothing unites a society better than a foreign attack. you will see members of the upper middle class that despise bolivarianism vote for maduro to protect venezuelan sovereignty, which is more important.

presuming that the justice system in the united state remains functioning, the only way i would predict maduro actually remaining removed from power is if it is a part of a deal made with the justice department, and that might be the actual point. the charges might just be leverage in a negotiation that results in maduro stepping down from power in exchange for the charges being dropped.

if that is the case, delcy rodriguez will almost certainly win the next elections in venezuela, and in a very legitimate landslide victory with a coalition consisting of proles seeking to protect the gains of bolivarianism and bourgeois voters looking to protect venezuelan independence and sovereignty.