avi lewis is running to be the third lewis to hold a leadership position in this party, as his father and grandfather were leaders of different branches of the party. so, he's the establishment candidate, right?
no. he's the outsider. the establishment candidate is a centrist mp from a conservative riding that presents herself as a conservative because that's how she wins her conservative riding. she is scripted, uncharismatic, careful and dull. lewis, on the other hand, seems to have some good script writers, and sounds like a confident idealistic visionary.
lewis isn't a young person. what are his qualifications, in middle age?
the answer is his name recognition. oh, and he's married to naomi klein. that's it. the latter sounds substantive, but the ndp practically banished naomi klein, who took the fall for thomas mulcair's hard swing to the right in 2015, that let the liberals run to the left of the ndp, which swept the carpet out from under them. lewis isn't just an outsider, he's almost persona non grata. they're only letting him run due to his name recognition in the first place; otherwise, he'd be banned, like yves engler.
there's a lot of other conflicts here that are being touched on but not talked about. organized labour is inherently conservative, and is resisting necessary environmental regulations. it is choosing to avoid short term pain, and not accepting the need of short term losses for long term, strategic gains. lewis is raising money and giving good speeches (is somebody helping him write those?) but he's not taking the base with him. lewis is jewish, and the ndp has a developing anti-semitic bent in it and is trying to position itself in alignment with it.
this is exposing a rift in the party that reflects the organizing structure. the ndp is not like the other major parties in canada in that it doesn't have local branches. the ndp is the ndp - it's the ndp in bc, in alberta, in ontario, in quebec. there are no provincial parties.
the rift is in realizing that avi lewis is raising all of the money but he'll never win a riding while heather macpherson is lagging far behind in fundraising and excitement, but she will probably hold her seat. the rift is in realizing that what the ndp is nationally, which is a party run on lofty ideals, is not the same thing as what the ndp is locally, in ridings it can actually win, which is more often a kind of compassionate or progressive conservatism, that often falls to the right of the liberals and to the left of the conservatives. i would not vote for that centrist ndp, but i don't live where they run; that centrist ndp may want to distance itself from the national party, which is raising funds in areas where it can't really compete.
the ndp should avoid the mess it's about to walk into, which is electing a leader that can't win a seat. this is the quandary. most of the remaining sitting ndps are like heather macpherson - they're broadly centrist mps, with strong conservative streaks. if any one of them were to step down for the leader, as is convention, avi lewis would be unlikely to retain the seat because he lacks the centrist qualities that helped them win. i can't think of anywhere he could run and win. but those centrist qualities don't reflect the party's base, which want an idealist. no single riding has enough voters to get avi lewis into parliament, but there are way more avi lewis supporters scattered around the country than supporters of anybody else. 40% of a small riding is far less than 5% of the whole country, but you have to win a riding to get into the house.
i'm left wondering if avi lewis might have been better off running for the greens.
as it is, i have no suggestions on where avi might want to run, but i'll point out that chrystia freeland's previous riding is better than most.