it was a leading question on the tpp. nobody opposes increasing trade.

that 18% green-leaning ndp vote is really on the brink of splitting, and may be an underestimate. a large amount of that is very fragile at this point. mulcair has already made a series of choices meant to position himself dead centre, and the online reaction to a lot of it has been pretty dramatic. he has those voters on his side, at most, until he passes legislation they don't like - and he *will* pass legislation they don't like. they may hold their noses and vote for him, to get rid of harper and then start criticizing him five minutes later. that might be what i end up doing. if he doesn't slow that centrist cave down a tad, he might manage to scare them off before the election.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/14/the-ekos-poll-ndp-liberals-still-struggling-to-break-free-of-deadlock/

Spencer
Ekos for the past 2 months seems to consistently low ball Liberal support by around 2 or 3 points and high ball Green support compared to most other polling firms.

deathtokoalas
this swing in the green vote is real. the ndp has been disappointing to left-leaning voters as of late.

Spencer
I wouldn't be that surprised if the Greens picked up a point or two by the end of the campaign, but I still think Ekos is high balling them when every other polling firm has them at about half of what Ekos does.

deathtokoalas
this poll put the ndp-green swing at almost 20% of the ndp vote. that's closer to 5-6%. i think it's a given that mulcair can kiss that goodbye if he starts backing pipelines and signing free trade agreements, as he's signaled he will. but, holding them up to the election is a question of how loud the centrist rhetoric is, and how intent those voters are to ignore it to push a change in government. they have little choice but to conclude he at least couldn't be worse than harper. but, protest voters vote with their hearts. he could very well scare off enough of his base to drop him to second or third, in his rush to the middle.