but now it's 5.
it's march, and this back and forth happens in march, but what i'm getting at is the forecast and not the weather itself. whatever is causing the weather, the forecasts should be able to get it within 12-24 hours at worst, if the models are nearly complete. they're not getting it because they're not complete. i've alluded to a missing factor. i've also alluded to the models over-shooting enso and under-shooting the atlantic.
there's apparently a scary amount of hot air off the coast of arizona right now creating a ridge over north america.
however, the totality of these observations at this time of the year is more consistent with a series of ssws, and i'll draw your attention to the strong aurora borealis happening right now.
the weather is complicated. there's lots of things happening, and they cancel each other out. it's not trivial to account for everything and get it right.
but the forecasts are consistently getting it wrong in exactly the same way over and over and it's resulting in a constant ~5 degree cooling error. that is, the forecasts are constantly for highs that are five degree less than the observed temperatures. this constant error factor is a mistake in how to work the effects of the solar maximum into the models, due to not understanding the effects of the increase in solar radiation, and the ssw events it causes.