again, this is a big step forward in russia's recently more assertive behaviour. again, i have to point out that the russians have been patient to the point of being naive. it was a matter of time, if the americans continued their aggressive policies.

i'm starting to come to the conclusion that the box has now opened: that the donkey has startled the elephant in the room into stomping too hard and it has awoken the bear from hibernation.

if russia starts invading former ssrs, i don't think it will be limited to ukraine. i think it will be indicative of a larger shift in strategy that will include more assertive roles in the caucasus, central asia, eastern europe, iran and the arab world.

i'm not using the pandora's box analogy lightly. they've been trying very hard to prevent this. but when they make the decision to use force, they're going to be liberal about it.

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140302/188009718/Putin-Tells-Obama-Russia-Will-Act-In-Case-of-Ukraine-Violence.html

there's just a really big historical line here. it's about respecting spheres of influence. the historical boundary is somewhere through poland and across through to moldova. the baltic countries are historically on the other side of it, but they're also different, culturally, and so the russians could grit their teeth and deal with it.

but ukraine is the russian sphere, by any understanding of history. crossing that line throws a lot of stated and unstated understandings out the window. if the americans think they can meddle in ukraine, why wouldn't the russians think they can meddle in poland or latvia? or mexico? or cuba?

opening this box means discarding a desire for peace, however naive it may have been, and going back to cold war type geopolitics.

something else to keep an eye out for is how this connects with china's increasing concern about american containment policies. that's the basis for a strengthening alliance.

mercosur?

there's a lot of ways the russians can cause some havoc, if they want to. but they haven't wanted to. they've wanted peace.

that might be in the process of changing.

btw, how would the turks like to deal with an emboldened and better funded kurdish resistance movement?

if the americans wanted a world war, it looks like they've got it.