Friday, August 28, 2015

steal?

i admit i don't watch much (any) tv, but this makes no sense to me. i've always assumed that the conservative base is primarily composed of social conservatives and that, if you were to measure it directly, you'd find out that they are the least knowledgeable about basic economic ideas and terminology. the exception to this comes in the form of certain types of investors and just flat out upper class earners, but they're certainly not interested in "jobs and growth" when they vote for the conservatives on "economic issues" - they're concerned about markets and tax rates.

conversely, liberal party supporters tend to actually mostly vote on the economy - it's their primary vote driver.

i've posted about this elsewhere, but i just don't think we can draw much out of these polls as we think we can because we can't really determine what the respondents actually mean. when you have a government that is constantly barraging people with ads that claim they're best at "managing the economy" (which is an absurd concept), it should come as little surprise that they rank highly - not because people like their policies, or even understand them, but because it's what they're bombarded with. the polls become a measure of the effectiveness of the conservative advertisement. and, sometimes you have to wonder if it's even intentional - the poll questions are worded almost identically to the ads. it's the same thing with the leadership question.

so, when the polls shift, then, what are you seeing? ideological shifts? the onset of the ultra-paradoxical phase, where stimulus leads to rejection? collateral damage from something else?

essentially all data you could construct from any source at all suggests the liberals should be blowing away the competition on anything remotely related to the economy. it's really not debatable. it's in the realm of objective fact. and, my experience has been that pretty much everybody that i've ever actually *talked* to has understood this - even very solid ndp and tory supporters.

i'm just not sure this is actually what people care about, or if it's what they've been told they should care about; and i'm not sure that people actually support the government's economic positions, so much as they're constantly being told they're the best on the economy. and, if you unravel the situation with this in mind, and then you look at the polls, you're left to conclude that the opposition parties should be focusing on everything *except* what the narrative has been defined as.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/27/can-progressives-steal-the-jobs-and-growth-issue-from-the-tories-absolutely/

jh
Interesting analysis. Im going with collateral damage for something else. For example the cons marketed two things which have benefited the NDP. 1st -"Liberals have demonstrated that they cannot be trusted. They managed to balance a budget on the backs of the most vulnerable and then pretend they are progressive. Of course it boggles the mind at why people aren't worshipping the Liberals!"

2nd- Liberal performance on managing the economy is very much debatable. They did balance the budget, but how they did it it, and at what cost is what people may remember. Did the actual Canadian economy grow and jobs increase? Were people better off ? Maybe on paper but most are not going to look that up. They are thinking what they are experiencing day to day.

Arrogance, deception and corruption scandals is what led to devastating election results the last time around. This was marketed very well by the Conservatives so uninformed people did buy into that narrative.

deathtokoalas
yeah, this is another media narrative that i'm convinced is wrong.

if you look at the combined pc & reform vote in 2000, it was 38%. in 2011, he managed a hair under 40% in an election where a lot of liberals stayed home. he got 38% in 2008 and 36% in 2006 - and 30% in 2004. the reality is that he's been spending the last 15 years hanging on to the progressive conservative vote for dear life, and he hasn't cut an inch into liberal support. so, where did all these liberal voters go, when he made a big stink about the scandals?

well, they went to the ndp, eventually, although a few seem to have parked with the greens on the way there. and, if you ask them about this directly, they won't tell you anything about scandals. they'll tell you that they didn't like the idea of electing paul martin (due to his budget cuts in the 90s) and didn't like ignatieff for his foreign policy views.

i'm less pointing out the objective supremacy of the liberal economic record in the sense of it being spotless, and more comparing it to the conservatives. harper & mulroney have both been just atrocious on any metric you could possibly pull out. it's just not a comparison.

i do think the scandals may be swinging some red tories to the liberals.

but i'm broadly leaning towards the ultra-paradoxical phase to explain the polling. you have to keep in mind that harper's economic competence (in the polling public's mind) has generally outperformed his polling results. people will repeat the ads, say the economy is most important and then tell the pollsters they're voting for somebody else. it's like the information sinks in on the surface, but doesn't *actually* sink in in the sense of forming voting intentions. how ads effect us is kind of weird, right? we sing major brand jingles and refer to products by their trademark names (like "mayonnaise"), but, at the end of the day, we buy the better bargain.

i think he may have over-advertised, to the point that now people just get irritated by the ads. and, the more he spends all that money, the harder hit he may end up.

maybe he could try flooding the lab, or something. i'm not giving him any ideas, though.
this is a more important issue than it appears at first glance - and that 15% number is misleading, given the low bandwidth definitions.

for people living in isolated, rural communities the internet is a kind of a gateway to the world. rural culture expects conformity, and often in ways that uphold social arrangements that much of the developed world considers to be out of date. this is the primary reason that the conservatives get such a lock on these constituencies. their policies are not particularly beneficial to farmers, but their perceived ideology places them as a buffer to protect their purity from infiltration by the outside world.

it sounds trite and cliched. but, wiring rural canada may be the only way to break the conservatives' perpetual lock on rural communities. and, as such, this is really a social engineering plan - one that both the liberals and the ndp (as well as the greens) ought to be backing with the strongest language. it would be very smart politics for them to stand up on this - and follow through with it.

that is, of course, why the conservatives will likely stall on it. they'll do it, sure. but only slowly, and with obfuscations that retain the national post as the de facto dominant source of information. this is simply not going to be in their interests until the dull roar turns into a resounding scream.

rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/fact-check/2015/08/fact-checking-conservatives-rural-broadband-strategy
i'm glad somebody did this, but it's youse guys...

first off, ivr actually has a far better track record than self-selecting online panels. this idea that you've got kids mashing numbers or whatever is kind of silly. but, the lack of randomness in the online polling is a significant problem - and this kind of polling has tended to do very poorly in shifting elections near election dates as a result of it [the last ontario election is an example where phone polling was very accurate and online polling was way off]. in stable campaigns, it's less of an issue. in this election, i would expect to see wide fluctuations, which is the particular weakness of the panel method.

after the bc election, firms have indicated that they will pay closer attention to overweighting the youth vote. they claim they got it wrong because they weighted young people by their size in the census, rather than their likelihood to vote. that correction would have taken most of the polling into the margins. this is a valid thing to point out, but it's not dependent on the survey method - and they claim they're adjusting for it. we'll see how that works out.

that said, this particular ivr poll is probably pushing the margins a little. that's an important point you forgot to mention. when a polling firm says they've got the ndp at 40 and the conservatives at 23 with a 3% margin of error, 19 times out of 20, what that actually means is that they claim there's a 95% chance that the ndp are between 37 and 43 and the conservatives are between 20 and 26. a little common sense will suggest that the ndp are probably closer to 37, and the conservatives are probably closer to 26. note that that also puts the liberals between 27 and 33, and comparisons to previous polls would suggest they're probably still in the 20s, anyways.


but, expanding on the regional part - i think the ivr polling had the ndp at 32% in alberta. that's a pretty good showing in a federal election for a party that isn't the conservatives. and, given the circumstances, it's entirely believable. but, it's really just good for second place everywhere outside of edmonton. the difference between 34 and 37 nationally would not be much if it works out purely to that kind of boost in alberta. they also had them in first in ontario, which is less believable. but, even a nice ndp bump in ontario is probably not going to make a lot of difference if it's almost entirely in traditional conservative-liberal races, and just ends up splitting the vote - while not making a dent in the conservative dominated rural areas. the reality is that the conservatives could easily win a plurality of 50+ seats in ontario with 25% of the vote, given the nature of the rural/urban split - and that they get very quickly diminishing returns as that number increases. they could get walloped in toronto, and still end up with the most seats.

the polling also broadly indicates that support for the ndp is largely "leaning", and that current snap polls may consequently be exaggerating support for the ndp and underestimating support for both the bloc and the liberals.

something else to keep in mind is to look at the swings and ask yourself "does this make sense?". if you saw a poll with a 10% swing between the ndp and the conservatives, you'd be wise to be wary. in the ivr poll, there was an apparent 6% swing from the conservatives to the ndp, which had the firm claim it was clear that the ndp was gaining at the expense of the conservatives. but, you can disentangle that a little if you look at it carefully.

you could first take note of the margin of error to cut it down to 3%. and, then you might want to take note that the liberals went up by 2% and the greens and bloc each went down by 1%. that leaves a 1% swing between the conservatives and the ndp, which is likely accurate if it's restricted to alberta - which makes sense, in context.
yeah. that's right. keep lobbing nonsense back and forth. the banks love it.

you want to know the actual truth?

trump would likely relax border controls. he'll very quickly fold to business interests. if he somehow wins this thing, nobody will even remember this phase of the campaign.


this guy is the biggest rubber stamp ever.

although you'll have to expect a lot of things will go "missing", too.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

is this really still shocking in 2015, or is it just kind of clownish?

"i just made another killing,
gonna spend it all on bitches."

yikes.


the weeknd are by no means the worst pop act i've ever heard. in years past, i would actually tend to gravitate towards the artsier fringes of pop music (radiohead, for example), so it's not like it's inherently outside of my sphere the way that the bulk of modern pop is. but, if the weeknd is the modern equivalent of art-pop, it really leaves the form with a lot to be desired - both conceptually and practically. i suppose that's reflective of the broader culture, really.

i can't say i've ever taken the time to sit down and listen to an entire record, but what i'll say is that most of what i've heard from him presents an idea or two that could potentially be expanded upon, and yet never is. and, so it always feels unexplored - half-finished, unrefined.

i don't know how old he is or how much potential there is that he'll ever build on the bits and pieces and flashes that he's shown for himself up to this point. but, i guess he's making lots of cash. and gets lots of bitches. so, there may be little incentive, anyways.
to make sure they're still real.


my guess is that it meant to save energy, although it may have perhaps miscalculated this particular hill.


i think the court is wrong. and i'm openly queer, fwiw.

i'm a canadian, so i'm approaching it from a slightly different perspective. but the issue the way i would understand it is related to the question of general service v. individual service. there's a difference between walking into a store and ordering a pre-made cake and requesting that a cake be made with a specific design on it. while the discrimination law ought to apply to the rejection of discrimination on general service (walking in and buying a pre-made good), i don't see any legal precedence or coherent argument that suggests that a store owner does not have the right to deny individual service, for whatever reason it could possibly imagine. it could deny a floral pattern because it doesn't like flowers. it doesn't have to explain or justify this, and it's really beyond any legal scope to question it. so, it's not a question of religious freedom, or even a first amendment protection. it's just the basic autonomous right of individuals to choose who they wish to carry out business with. the entire question is really outside of the scope of law; this case should have never even been heard, and the arguments are really not relevant in the context of any of the discussions being had. so, i would expect the supreme court to reverse this ruling, if it gets there. this is an example of what you call judicial activism - it's not legally rooted.

i would further expand on the issue as it relates to access. in canada, there is a specific circumstance where the court would rule that the business must provide service, and that is only if it has a monopoly. that would apply mostly to government services. so, you can't deny a driver's license for this reason, for example. that's what anti-discrimination laws actually exist for. but, we're talking about wedding cakes on the free market, here. chances are pretty high that you can just go to the next store down the street. and, that's what the judge really should have said - that the government does not exist to police this sort of thing.

there's an irony underlying the situation. you don't have to agree with this guy - i certainly don't. but you have to respect his rights to make his own autonomous decisions and carry out his own autonomous actions. you're the one that's being aggressive here, not him; you have no right to try and force him to bake a cake if he doesn't want to - and it doesn't remotely matter what the reason is.


to be more succinct: this doesn't have anything anything to do with the first amendment, it doesn't have anything to do with religious freedom and it doesn't have anything to do with anti-discrimination laws. it has to do with somebody trying to order somebody to do something they don't want to.

there's no fancy legal argument necessary, and getting lost in one is just confusing. the most powerful legal argument the store owner has is the following simple statement:

"no. i don't want to."

once the layers of superfluous arguments are stripped away and that simple point is understood, there's really no further room for debate.

underlipetx
+deathtokoalas except for the fact that if you turn the tables it's okay. When someone wants to have a cake done with a bible verse on it and the bakery refuses, the courts favor the bakery. There's a bias agenda in here people refuse to acknowledge...

the simple statement would not be "no, I don't want to" but "no, it violates my religious beliefs",

deathtokoalas
+underlipetx see, this is a typical right-wing culture war argument, and i don't really want to get into it. the courts should uphold the autonomous rights of individuals to make decisions as to the nature of the business they carry out. critical theory would tend to come down on the other side of this, but activism in the judiciary exists on both the right and the left. the bottom line is that they're both wrong, and this isn't a spectrum issue - it's an issue of fundamental rights and freedoms to not be ordered to do something you don't want to.

the religious freedom clause in the united states constitution is widely interpreted, and widely misinterpreted. but, one thing that is absolutely clear is that it's not meant to be applied to financial transactions on the open market.

the point, though, is that it doesn't matter what the reason is. that reason belongs to the individual making it, and it is not within the realm of state criticism.

as stated - the case should have been thrown out.

underlipetx
+deathtokoalas yes "right wing culture war argument" as in point out the hypocrisy, but then of course we just label it as "right wing culture war argument" and feel okay about it...... Freedom of religion act is meant for protection wherever you go. It's religious discrimination when someone believes that religions place is only "in the household and churches"

although I believe we agree on the issue as well.

wouldn't that go against the view of right to healthcare as well? Honest question since you're from Canada, cause that "right" is saying that you can force someone(a doctor) to treat you.

Drew Gaughan
+underlipetx No, it's not hypocritical because those doctors are government employees providing a service which every Provincial citizen is guaranteed. They aren't baking you a cake.

underlipetx
+Drew Gaughan doctors aren't governmental employees, even in Canada they still have "super hospitals" or privately owned ones, even so, that statement would say it's okay to force a doctor to do something cause the government says so isn't valid. Just a note in not comparing this to baking a cake, it's a separate question.

Drew Gaughan
+underlipetx We don't have privately owned hospitals here in Canada, save for a few in major cities. The problem here is your conflating a life-saving profession with baking a cake. Should a police officer have the right to refuse answering a 911 call because they don't like the colour of the house which they were called to? No, and neither should a doctor refuse to perform a surgery because they dislike the patient.

underlipetx
I said earlier, I'm not comparing this to baking a cake, its a separate honest question I was asking, and since 2005 where the founder of the Canadian healthcare system was sued and deemed that his care system  was " a crime against humanity" they allowed the establishment of super hospitals, which in America is just called hospitals. 

deathtokoalas
+underlipetx i'm not getting your reference to a 2005 case. i think the closest thing to a "founder" of health care in canada would be tommy douglas, and he died in 1986.

i'm going to take a step back and try and go over this slowly.

first, freedom of religion in the united states is about the government. it's not about behaviour between individuals. what it says is that there can't be laws that force people to do certain religious things or give people certain religious benefits. the basis for this law was to prevent denominations from fighting with each other, which was a legitimate issue at the time. for example, you couldn't pass a law that states that the trinity is true and unitarians are heretics. it's that sort of thing that it meant to address.

the truth is that this part of the constitution is very antiquated and should really read off as rather quaint.

there are a lot of conclusions to draw from this, some better than others. but, the interpretation you're pulling out of it is really just simply wrong. none of the people involved in the process would have for a moment thought it a good idea to get the state involved in policing market transactions - one way or the other. they would have neither supported a religious restoration type act (for reasons other than the first amendment) nor would they argue that the state has the right to order a baker to make a cake. they would have just said that this is a crazy thing to contemplate, and that the entire discourse is tyrannical. the baker decides to make the cake. the customer goes to another store if they're refused. now, let's all smoke a j.

however, they would have all mostly argued that the market is a useful tool to carry out social change. they would have certainly supported the idea of boycotting the bakery in order to put pressure on the baker to change his position. and, some of them may have argued that the anti-discrimination law is in breech of the first amendment, while rejecting the idea that the baker's opinions are protected by "freedom of religion". the idea is that the anti-discrimination act would be a law establishing the primacy of irreligion. let's be clear that this is a very different argument. and it's a bit of a stretch. but, it's the one you need to make if you're walking down this path.

so, the idea that the first amendment bestows rights on individuals in market transactions is wrong. it's just not what is in your constitution. however you feel about the discussion, this is simply not a first amendment issue.

however, the baker still has a constitutional argument. it's just not a first amendment, religious argument - it's more basic than that.

in canada, our human rights laws have specific scope. the federal human rights code deals with issues under federal jurisdiction - government services, basically. the provincial human rights code deals with issues of power. it's actually very specific in what it reduces itself to, but the idea is that somebody in power cannot discriminate against somebody they hold power over. canadian law would be entirely silent on the issue at hand, and the case would no doubt be thrown out of court.

i will address the doctors in a new reply.

deathtokoalas
canada has a clause in it's constitution that will come off as rather alien to americans. it is the following:

7. Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of the person and the right not to be deprived thereof except in accordance with the principles of fundamental justice.

it looks a little bit familiar: you have life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. but, the difference is rather dramatic.

canadian courts have interpreted this part of the constitution, in conjunction with relevant legislation, to mean that canadians have a constitutional right to receive health care (see the morgantaler cases).

now, let's consider the driver's license thing again. let's say the guy that works at the dmv is a religious fundamentalist and is absolutely insistent that women should not drive. is it tyrannical to force him to hand out licenses? the answer is no: because he can quit his job. as an employee of the dmv, he is required to carry out a job description, and that job description is to uphold the rights of women to not be discriminated against when they're getting their license.

this is the kind of argument that we use in canada with doctors and care. patients have a right to certain access; as a doctor, it is a part of their job to provide that. the state will not force them to provide care. rather, it will tell them that if they do not want to do their job then they can find another job.

conversely, nobody has a right to buy a cake. i certainly suspect that the case was driven by entitlement issues. but, that's not an actual right - not in canada, not in the united states, not in the un - nowhere.

underlipetx
+deathtokoalas
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaoulli_v_Quebec_%28AG%29

I will rephrase that it was deemed "a violation of human rights"

The person I was thinking of is Claude Castonguay, the former Minister of Health who was in office when the current medicare legislation was enacted.

deathtokoalas
+underlipetx the chaoulli case has not led to any concrete reforms in canada. but, this is not related to the question at hand.

the canadian health care system is essentially a system of insurance monopolies. every province has it's own insurance monopoly, which is funded through progressive taxation. that means everybody uses the same system, which means nobody gets to jump ahead.

the case in question was asking the question of whether this is constitutional. the argument was that the absence of a market increases wait times, which breaks the clause i referenced previously.

a lot of the debate circles around the validity of the idea that an open market would actually reduce wait times. the general opinion is that this is false. this is important, because if the premise is flawed then the argument collapses.

but, no, this case did not rule the system a crime against humanity, and did not create superhospitals. it has not led to any legislation whatsoever

underlipetx
I rephrased as a "Violation of human rights"(it was also deemed a crises as well) and its has led to the ability to have privatized healthcare which they do have that in Canada

deathtokoalas
+underlipetx that's still not quite right. again: this has gone off-topic. the issue in this case was not whether doctors may be allowed to refuse service, but whether the provincial government may be allowed to maintain a monopoly in health insurance. canadian court rulings can sometimes be very subtle and hard to understand from the outside.

what the ruling did was give the quebec government a choice to increase funds to reduce wait times (and uphold the right publicly) or allow that part of the law to expire (thereby theoretically allowing for faster access in a theoretical private system). it was based solely on the idea that the existing system was not providing fast enough service, and that reality was infringing on the existing right.

now, a lot of people have read the ruling as an attempt for the court to increase public investment, rather than allow private practice. but, the government did not amend any legislation or react with any greater funding.

the result has been a small industry of private doctors in quebec that cater solely to the ultra-rich. it's what is called "two-tier healthcare", and does in fact allow the extremely wealthy to jump the queue ahead of everybody else. it's well outside of the financial means for the average person, and has consequently not altered the health care system in any meaningful way.

the general consensus is that should the private system be expanded then the wait times will reappear. at the end of the day, you have x patients and y doctors. whether it's a public or private system doesn't have any effect on how long it takes for those x patients to get to see those y doctors - unless you create a special category of doctors that only the rich can get access to. then, they can get in faster while everybody else has to wait.

there's an argument that a class-action suit would reverse this ruling by arguing that the two-tier health care is increasing wait times by taking resources out of the public system. it hasn't yet materialized, because the private industry is only capable of appealing to the elite and is consequently only siphoning the system of minimal resources.

this is a provincial ruling, not a federal one. most provinces in canada prohibit private practices.

underlipetx
its not off topic as much as comments to the others on this thread, however I do believe your comment is wrong to say that it "cater solely to the ultra-rich"

What is a reality is that if you do not have private health insurance and you want to do something as little as a blood test, that can take up to 2-3 years on a waiting list for a family doctor.

here is a video from a youtube personality who shows the results of such instances:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2jijuj1ysw

(yes hes a youtube personality, so its done in a  bit of a goofy way.)

deathtokoalas
+underlipetx you have a tendency to exaggerate.

blood tests are actually done largely by private offices, or at hospitals. remember: canada's system is an insurance monopoly, it's not government operated. so, you go to the private clinic and they accept your health card. they then bill the insurance company for it.

if you go to a doctor and they want a blood test, they usually send you to one of those private clinics. they tend to give you a few days so you can carry out instructions, like prepare to fast for a few hours.

i've had plenty of blood tests done. i've really never taken notice of how long it was - a couple of days. i mean, they'll book you based on your schedule. i may have not taken the first opening. two-three years is ridiculous.

the market forces at play in quebec act to keep prices disproportionately high; there is a high-quality tax-funded public system available, and, yes, people complain about the waits, but people are whiners. despite the language in the court ruling, the private industry is selling the privilege to jump ahead based on social status.

mris, for example, run into the tens of thousands of dollars. if you can wait a month or two for the people ahead of you to finish, the public system will pay for it. most people make the obvious choice. but, if you've got tens of thousands to burn...

Emmanuel Villa
If your a private business you should be allowed to serve who you please

L1ttleT3d
+deathtokoalas You feel the same about black people, right? I should be able to deny service to black people if I wish? And women? I should be able to deny women jobs or service if I want to?

deathtokoalas
+L1ttleT3d see, this is the part of the thing that the authoritarian left has a very hard time understanding - they think all situations are comparable in these broad general ways, and everybody should always be forced to abide by state dictates in all circumstances. this is not a liberal position. it's a totalitarian statist position. liberals need to be very subtle in terms of how they analyze freedom, and allow for complex clauses that are specific to certain contexts and circumstances.

your question is consequently impossible to answer because the way that it's phrased is incoherent and nonsensical. i cannot answer a question about always denying or not denying service to any specific identifiable group - and it's absurd to suggest anybody should. if you'd like to be a little bit more specific, i'll be happy to expand upon my views.

again: i'm a canadian. our constitution is probably the apex of applied liberalism; it's not the un charter, but it's as close as anybody's ever gotten. and, our rights are all subject to exceptions within the limits of a free and democratic society. rights are always a balance of interests. i'm not able to think in these simplistic, generalized, binary terms that give one side a sickle and the other five minutes to run. it's not a culture i exist in, or a legal tradition i understand.

so, you'll have to be more specific, please. i need a specific scenario. and i will deny you the right to generalize it.

L1ttleT3d
+deathtokoalas Sure thing. Specific question 1: Mary and Peter are up for the same management job. Mary is infinitely more qualified but is a woman and so will inevitably need time off for "woman issues" and pregnancy. It's my business. I don't want to hire Mary - I WANT to hire Peter. Are you going to make me do something I don't want to do? You're not one of these authoritarian government intervention lefties, are you?

Specific question number 2: I have a flower business. I believe mixing the races is abhorrent and violates natural law. A mixed race couple wish me to provide flowers for their wedding. I don't WANT to. Are you going to make me do something I don't want to do? You're not one of these authoritarian government intervention lefties, are you?

Specific question number 3: I am a landlord. I have various tenants applying for housing. Jews are shifty and can't be trusted. As such I don't WANT to let my house to any Jews. I wish to place an ad in the paper that specifies "NO JEWS NEED APPLY." You're not going to make me do something I don't want to do, are you? You're not one of these authoritarian government intervention lefties are you? It's MY house. 

deathtokoalas
+L1ttleT3d regarding the first question, there is not a jurisdiction in the world that would force you to hire mary. however, some jurisdictions may require you to compensate her for discriminatory hiring practices. i would agree that this is the proper balance.

the second question is similar to the issue at hand. the couple can go to another store. that is the proper rights balance. however, they are also free to draw attention to the situation in media, organize boycotts and do other things to inform consumers of the views of the store in question and try and convince people to not shop there.

the third issue is similar to the first, with the difference that some jurisdictions will force the landlord to allow the tenancy due to the nature of housing. housing is in a category of rights that is only weakly enforced, but it is at least abstractly recognized as a right. most jurisdictions, however, would approach the situation by rewarding compensation for discrimination rather than forcing unwanted tenancy.

you can see that there is a pattern: people are free to be assholes, but may have to pay a fee for it. and, i'd like you to step back and ask yourself the following questions:

1) would mary want to work in this establishment, given that she understands the views of management?
2) would a mixed race couple want to support this business?
3) would the jewish person in question want to live in a property owned by anti-semites?

L1ttleT3d
+deathtokoalas regarding the first question, there is not a jurisdiction in the world that would force you to hire mary. however, some jurisdictions may require you to compensate here for discriminatory hiring practices. i would agree that this is the proper balance.

I live in New Zealand. YOU WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIRE MARY. You're talking like you're an expert on law. You clearly are not. You need to change your language accordingly.

1) would mary want to work in this establishment, given that she understands the views of management?
2) would a mixed race couple want to support this business?
3) would the jewish person in question want to live in a property owned by anti-semites?

Your position is fairly consistent. I'm cool with that in a way - liberty over equality. We just prioritise them slightly differently.

These responses are nonsense however. If you live in a place where you are a small reviled minority then you're not going to get any support for your boycott. Black people in the 60s could have all the boycotts they want - they weren't welcome anyway. Also fining people IS coercion. I don't understand why you think financial penalties aren't coercive... that's bizarre... 

deathtokoalas
+L1ttleT3d i am a moderate expert in canadian law; i took three years of it, before i decided it was just a charade for the ruling class. i naively thought it might be a useful way to fight the corporatocracy. the truth is the rules of the game are rigged.

new zealand doesn't count. it's in the middle of nowhere. you have giant crickets and weird birds running around all over the place. you can have your unique legal practices if you wish, but understand that you're living in a bubble. and, to be honest, i'm rather skeptical - although i cannot dispute your point.

the reason i asked you those questions was to have you see that forcing compliance is not a solution to anything. it's not a question of prioritizing one over the other, it's just a realization that you can't get to equality by beating it into people with a stick. at best, it forces people to be dishonest in public. at worst, it fuels resentment. getting to a proper balance that promotes harmony requires working with a scalpel, not a sickle.

so, it's not that i'm arguing against coercion. it's that i'm arguing that forcing people to do things against their will is not a good approach. i'm recognizing that discrimination is an offense, and agreeing it requires compensation - but i'm pointing towards what is almost universally agreed to be the better approach in remedying the injustice.

the civil rights movement in the 60s was a populist movement where whites and blacks worked together. that said, this dynamic was an urban phenomenon. there was a large migration of blacks out of the south in the middle part of the last century. the government passed laws that forced equal treatment in restaurants, motels and other contexts. it didn't work; white southerners just got more violent. in the end, the most immediate answer was escape. but, if you really want to get to the root of discrimination in racialized societies, you need to analyze systemic root causes. this is the basis of the critical race theory that came out of the failure of the 60s reforms; while i'm not entirely in agreement with their analysis, the basic premise that they're working with is quite difficult to dispute. on some level, you're right - but forcing them to sell them the flowers hardly addresses the issue.

anti-discrimination laws are not powerful enough to eliminate discrimination and oppression - they can only provide for compensation in situations where a clear loss or injustice can be demonstrated.

L1ttleT3d
+deathtokoalas i took three years of it, before i decided it was just a charade for the ruling class

We were taught that day 1 of Law 101. I'm not even kidding. I remember it very well. The definition of law was discussed and it was defined as basically a mechanism for maintaining the status quo. The rich keep their stuff because the police work for them. It's a shame your university lecturer wasn't as forthright as mine, I guess. :P

new zealand doesn't count. it's in the middle of nowhere. 

Sure. That's an odd response but I'll take it. It's right next to Australia (and has almost identical laws to Australia and the UK)... but then I guess that's the "middle of nowhere" too, probably.

you have giant crickets and weird birds running around all over the place. 

Well we're not quite overrun. I'm not sitting in my house with Weta's and Kakapo clawing at my windows... but O... K...

it's just a realization that you can't get to equality by beating it into people with a stick 

I disagree. You can do anything you want if you're willing to get violent enough. We're not willing to impose totalitarianism onto ourselves of course - but technically you CAN beat people into doing what you want.

at best, it forces people to be dishonest in public. at worst, it fuels resentment. getting to a proper balance that promotes harmony requires working with a scalpel, not a sickle.
 
Fair point. Fines are a sickle, though. Not a scalpel. You need to find a better tool.

you need to analyze systemic root causes. this is the basis of the critical race theory that came out of the failure of the 60s reforms 

Now THIS I agree with. Treat the disease not the symptom. Couldn't agree more. The main thing overlooked the the race issues of the USA by many is that it really isn't about race... not really. This is a class thing - with Black people as the underclass. Fix social inequality and the rest will follow, in my opinion.

deathtokoalas
+L1ttleT3d white supremacy didn't come to exist by accident. it was very carefully created by a combination of landholding interests and religious groups to enforce an economic system by theological decree. over time, that evolved into a divide and conquer strategy where poor whites and poor blacks were played off against each other in order to prevent them from uniting to change the status quo. the social aspect of it is the part that's hard, not the class aspect of it. the race issue has to be resolved before the class issue can be addressed. it's really the desperately poor and strikingly uneducated white underclass that is the biggest problem on the ground, even as they take their cues from the top.

it's not that i wasn't told that the law is a tool to maintain the status quo. it's a widely held opinion, even amongst people that have never taken a law course. it's that i didn't realize the extent of it until i actually read the cases. you walk in thinking you've got a hill to climb, but with optimism that you can make a difference. it takes some time for it to really sink in.

L1ttleT3d
+deathtokoalas Oh, don't get me wrong, racism exists. I just think the social inequality / class aspect of it is far more meaningful than pretending this is a simple race issue would lead you to believe.

Alicia Etler
+deathtokoalas You make a valid point, and I do agree with you. The cake example is a poor example to use here. The only ones truly hurt are the business owners who aren't making money off of a potential customer. And even more potential business for anyone agreeing with the gay couple's opinion. A business owner shouldn't need to pander to customers. Yes, they tend to be more successful if they do, but it's not a requirement. A florist who doesn't carry daisies doesn't have to suddenly go out and get some just because the customer requests it in a bouquet. A restaurant doesn't have to offer an all-you-can-eat buffet just because a customer wants it.

However, while that example doesn't fit, I'm sure you agree there's plenty of examples that do. A person applying a job shouldn't be turned away for being homosexual or transgender. Beliefs have no right to be used in determining job performance. If they're qualified to perform a task, and perform it well, why shouldn't they be allowed to? As a specific example, my mom works for a bookkeeping company. A few years back, a transgendered individual applied for a job there. They were perfectly qualified, but they were denied for being transgendered. The excuse given was that they were worried about anyone coming into the office and seeing them, given they would sorta be representing the company. The company is even an Equal Opportunity Employer, to make matters worse, but North Carolina law doesn't protect transgendered people under that. This is a very common practice in far too many states.

As an analogy, the saying "women must work twice as hard for the same amount of money", while slightly inaccurate, is generally true, given the proven pay differential between genders. However, being transgender or homosexual means doing even more work than that because of the sheer amount of businesses that will reject them or hinder their progression (raises, etc.) because of it. Far more than if they were cis female.

P.S. For the record, I'm both mtf transgender and lesbian, so the only thing I have going for me in the sense of job security and otherwise being treated like a sentient being is that I'm white.

deathtokoalas
+Alicia Etler i don't have a point of disagreement with you. but what the actual law in both the united states and canada (and i suspect australia, the uk and new zealand, despite the previous poster's comments) says is not that the employer must hire the individual if they are found guilty of breaking discrimination laws, but that they must pay them a fee to compensate them for losses. it's what is called tort law - it deals solely with financial damages. the idea of the government dictating hiring decisions in private businesses is outside of it's jurisdiction in common law countries; it can set hiring practices, but they can only be enforced by threat of fine.

it's not that the cake example is really fundamentally different. it's just that it's difficult to establish any kind of damage or loss.

Alicia Etler
+deathtokoalas Wow... umm... my apologies. I just realized my other comment massively failed to say the original thing I wanted to say: Thank you for opening my eyes, as I never thought much about the cake incident until reading your comment. Once I did, I realized some irony that is probably your underlying main point. That event is getting far too much publicity for what it deserves, and partly due to people associating it with things it doesn't relate to. The owner has as much of a right to not do business with a customer as that customer has to complain about the owner. Anyone who wants the owner to do anything about it is just as bad as those trying to abolish gay marriage. Both acts are attempting to force someone to do something against their will.

Naomi Nabbit
+deathtokoalas IANAL, but my understanding of the law in the US is that if you offer something to one person, you must offer it to everyone. You cannot legally give preferential treatment to one person over another in a business. A landlord can't deny a black man an apartment who meets all the specified conditions for renting just because "I don't like him." A job can't refuse a woman employment but offer the same position to a man (jobs are actually forbidden from knowing the gender of a candidate before the first interview, though the name usually gives it away, just like they can't know the candidate's age or ethnicity) even if they say it was because "I didn't like her."

Do these things happen? Yes, probably all the time, but that doesn't make them legal, and that doesn't mean they'd win a court case. You can refuse anyone service or fire anyone for any reason you want, but if it comes out that the reason was solely due to the person's membership in a protected minority class, it is not legal in the US, no matter what the person says or believes. Of course, different states have different protected minority classifications, which is what that non-discrimination bill is all about. It's about adding protections at the federal level so that in addition to things like race, gender, and religion which are already there, sexual orientation and gender identity are added to the list everyone has to use. 

Donald Lanoux
You see, if all LGBTQ individuals thought like you, they would all collectively better themselves and their community, and have my respect.

deathtokoalas
+Naomi Nabbit you've got the right idea, using official language. i'm just taking what is called a "critical" approach to the law in seeing it how it actually is.

which is that the state cannot prevent or reverse or order behaviour. it can just make you pay a fine if it doesn't like what you're doing.

you're right in saying that if you have general service available, then you need to make it available to everybody. that doesn't apply in this circumstance, and it's easy to come up with circumstances where specific services are not for everybody. like a midwife, for example. or perhaps even a stripper. tutors. and etc. but, if you have something sitting on the shelf, and the transaction involves walking it to the cash? the law says that if you will not serve the person, you are entitled to pay a fine.

that's the "critical" part. the law says "thou shalt not be an asshole". it's just language. in practice, the reality is "thou shalt pay a fine should one decide to be an asshole.". and, worse, half the judges are assholes.

deathtokoalas
+Donald Lanoux i don't think it's a good idea to stereotype people one way or another.

deathtokoalas
+Naomi Nabbit i should clarify a little, i didn't mean to say i'm merely thinking critically. it's a type of legal philosophy. the search term is "critical legal studies". and, it's actually firmly rooted on the left.

Donald Lanoux
+deathtokoalas In a perfect world. Unfortunately a stereotype holds true until presented with opposing evidence. Anyway, I applaud your defense of individual rights 

Alicia Etler
+Donald Lanoux "If all LGBTQ individuals thought like you, they would all collectively better themselves and their community, and have my respect." No disrespect meant, but that stereotype is immensely incorrect. Replacing "LGBTQ" with "Christians" is just as inaccurate and wrong. There's many religious people out there that follow their religion's teachings properly. In this case, that means "Judge not, lest ye be judged yourself." Just because the media focuses on the extreme views doesn't mean the vast majority of us are like them. Most homosexual/transgender people are sensible, just like most religious people are sensible. The media aims to label all of us based on a few extremists under the "one bad apple ruins the bunch" idea, and so far, it looks like they succeeded with you.

deathtokoalas
+Alicia Etler yeah, it runs across the spectrum of portrayal in a lot of ways. with transgendered people, specifically, the whole point is that we're trying to fade in. we want people to focus on everything except that aspect of us. even when the media portrays us in what are really absurd (and often regressive) stereotypes, they get applauded - because those stereotypes are the only way that most people interact with transgendered people on the level of them being transgendered because the vast majority of us are really just trying to not draw attention to it, and the vast majority of people, even people that mean well, consequently legitimately don't know better.

i've been a bit of an activist for a while. both online and off. and i could interact with a group like occupy in ways i couldn't interact with a queer rights group, because the trans component invariably ends up dominated by drag queens, which are essentially very dominant queeny gay men that just don't think like transgendered women. there's a spectrum. i'm not trying to box anybody in or cast anybody out. but even the people in these groups that identify as trans tend to think like gay men. those dominant gay male voices end up drowning everything out, and it becomes very hard to get a word in. the general passivity of trans women in face-to-face circumstances makes it hard to get heard over this.

and, it's not just the dominant gay men. i think there's an argument that the t doesn't really belong in lgbt. often times, the transgendered person ends up presenting what is essentially a straight perspective (straight relative to their transitioned role) in what is an overwhelmingly queer group, and ends up far outside the spectrum of acceptable opinion within it.

but, media doesn't seem to want to get beyond the glamour of drag culture to deal with the reality that your average trans person is really a pretty average person with pretty average perspectives and is really just seeking acceptance on the basis of no longer being interpreted as abnormal.

Naomi Nabbit
+deathtokoalas While I agree with some of your larger points, I feel that there are a lot of holes and assumptions in your arguments. Yes, your average trans person is really a pretty average person just seeking acceptance. So is the average homosexual person, bisexual person, intersexed person, asexual person, queer person, and two-spirit (blanket term for Native American people who identify as their native culture's third or fourth gender) person. The average person in a minority that;s discriminated against doesn't want to be discriminated against and they don't want special treatment. They just want to be treated like any other average person.

Heck, the United States was founded on that very principle - an oppressed minority didn't want to be discriminated against just because of where they lived or what religion they practiced, so they rebelled and made their own country. Yes, it was more complicated than that, but at its core, that's what the Declaration of Independence says - we're being treated differently by the government, and that's wrong. Now, I'm not saying we LGBT(QIA2S) folk should throw a bunch of tea into the harbor next year during Pride, just that the US was founded by people who were upset that they were being treated differently for being a minority.

And the reason the T belongs in LGBTQIA2S is that it was in the original term and the original movement (in the US - can't speak for Canadia). The modern LGBT movement in the states started with the Stonewall Riots, which Pride commemorates every year. There were LGB and T people at Stonewall. Yes, there were dragqueens there, but there were also trans people. (Dragqueens, from what I understand, generally identify as gay male crossdressers, not transwomen, but I haven't actually met any dragqueens.) It's part of the same movement because it is the same movement, started at the same time, in the same place, for the same reasons. Yes, straight transgendered folk have a non-marginalized sexual orientation, just like cisgendered homosexuals/bisexuals/etc have a non-marginalized gender identity. That doesn't innately segregate the civil rights movements (even if trans folk often get thrown under the bus by gay rights activists in exchange for LGB rights - being a minority within a minority isn't always easy).
Also, many of the trans people I happen to know, including myself, are also bisexual (or pansexual). I think it's common because we often see gender differently than cisgendered folk. Or, it's just common for people I know because the social circles I tend to hang around include a substantial number of bisexuals. Either way, referring to transgender people as typically straight is pretty heteronormative.

Yes, most transwomen just want to be treated like any other woman, just like most homosexual couples just want to be treated like any other couple. 

deathtokoalas
+Naomi Nabbit what i'm getting at is that queeny gay men revel in their rejection of norms, their open flamboyancy and their desire to stand apart from the crowd. they want you to know they're gay and will yell it from the loudest rooftops. it forms the core of their identity, and the filter they desire to be interpreted through.

trans people tend to prefer to fade in to the background and not be noticed. broadly speaking, they'd rather you didn't know that they're trans. they tend to be very shy. they don't base their identities around it, or want you to interpret them through that filter.

this is just diversity. that's fine. the problem is that the queeny gay men almost entirely control the narrative on trans issues, which distorts the public perception on it. and, because we interpret things broadly differently, we tend to disagree more often than we agree. that distortion consequently creates a large disconnect between perception and reality.

there's obviously power in numbers. i don't propose that transgendered people disassociate from the broader queer movement. but, outside observers - especially friendly ones - should realize the limitations that exist.

Naomi Nabbit
+deathtokoalas Aren't you using some pretty negative media stereotypes of gay men? Isn't that exactly what you're complaining about other people doing regarding transwomen? I know quite a few gay men - exactly zero of them are as you've described. You can't argue against stereotypes by using them. That's not how this works. Most gay men I know don't want to be perceived as gay men, they want to be perceived as men, just like we transwomen want to be perceived as women.

I guess it's reasonable for a member of one minority group to be prejudiced against members of another minority group and only see them through the lens of stereotype, but it certainly doesn't support your case or make you sound sympathetic. It just makes you sound like the people you are speaking out against.

Donald Lanoux
+Alicia Etler Fair enough. But I'm a firm believer in silencing extremists and zealots who infringe on others. The problem is the individual above is the first of his/her kind that I have witnessed calling out these zealots. Regardless of a zealot advancing your cause, if he or she infringes on the rights of others who disagree with you, IT IS YOUR DUTY for your cause to check them. 

deathtokoalas
+Naomi Nabbit i'm not speaking of these characteristics negatively. if queeny gay men want to be queeny gay men, that's entirely their prerogative - and i don't hold that against them. i'm just pointing out the reasons that the media presentation of transwomen is so thoroughly lacking: transwomen are not gay men.

there's (at least) three transwomen on this thread. we all have pictures up. have you ever seen a media portrayal of a transwoman that looks like one of us?

Dalton Reyburn
+deathtokoalas i'm just curious, would you support the same cake shop's hypothetical decision to not serve people of color? i suppose you're right, ideally the free market would just elevate shops that were more inclusive. but at the same time, don't you think there ought to be some basic protection against people being denied service for things that they can't control? it's not like anybody was asking the baker to graphically depict anal sex on the cake. for all we know, it could have just been the names of two men.

deathtokoalas
+Dalton Reyburn you have to set the hypothetical situation up comparably, and there's not really a very good comparison. an almost comparable situation would be a cake shop owner refusing to make a cake with a black panther flag on it, or something. that's not the same thing as outright refusing general service.

and, i'm also not exactly supporting the decision. i certainly don't actually agree with the store owner. i'm just pointing out that the court ruling is overstepping itself.
thatcher remains a lightning rod. our canadian "new labour" party is modelling itself after blair; it seems to be a bit behind the times. but, she's dead. maybe we can take a step back and be a bit more objective.

in certain terms, she was a disaster to the working class in britain. this is beyond dispute.

but, if you follow her carefully, it's not entirely fair to call her heartless. it's less that she thought the poor ought to starve, and more that she thought it should be up the church to step in and provide the services that were cut by the state. and, that wasn't just lip service. she really honestly believed that, and she was very much behind pushing religious institutions to step into the void.

the criticism should consequently be refocused. at the core of this was a kind of social engineering that attempted to reverse the movement of britons towards secularism. in her mind, a more religiously aware society would both provide for greater services and instill that famous protestant work ethic - the absence of which, is what she felt was at the root cause of poverty.

it's warped. absolutely. deeply flawed - no question. and, it will inevitably need to be reversed.

but it's less that she was heartless and more that she was just a tory - and demonstrated the typical level of delusional thinking that is associated with this.

(posted to google+)

it seems like youtube posts are no longer cross-linked here. that kind of defeats the point, now, doesn't it?

hopefully, they provide a stream somewhere or other.

for now, what i'll be doing is posting hyperlinks to my comments here.
Kevin in Vancouver
Is the economy on the right track. Here are the facts and if you read you will see exports are responding to the low dollar.

Exports grew to CAD 44.6 billion in June, the first increase in six months. Exports of consumer goods rose 17.2 percent to a record CAD 6.0 billion, led by pharmaceutical and medicinal products (+41.7 percent), prepared and packaged seafood products (+128.9 percent) and miscellaneous goods and supplies (+17.1 percent). Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products grew 10.8 percent to CAD 5.1 billion, mainly driven by higher sales of precious metals and precious metal alloys (+18.3 percent). Excluding energy products, shipments were up 6.9 percent.

Jessica Murray
i'm not going to check the numbers, because i believe it. a lower dollar is good for our economy. so, why, then has harper done everything he can to keep the dollar as high as possible?

this growth in exports is in despite of harper, not because of him.

imagine how well we could have been doing if he hadn't gone out of his way to keep the dollar high...

he was beaming with pride when we hit parity, spinning it like it was a source of national pride that had been suppressed by the treasonous "previous government".

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-liberals-infrastructure-deficits-1.3205535
does harper think we have the memories of lab rats? he pushed that stimulus program in 2009 as an exchange for ignatieff's support of the budget. and, he howled and screamed about it at the time. now, he's saying it was his idea and a consequence of his sound training?

again: it's less that he lies. you expect that. it's more that he's the worst liar i've ever seen.

the trolls on this very board, and many boards like it, were going on about the "ignatieff deficit" and howling at the injustice of it all...

"on probation". remember that?

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-liberals-infrastructure-deficits-1.3205535
some sanity! thank you!

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-chris-hall-analysis-deficit-debate-1.3204828
i think the error that a lot of these studies make is that they compare serious music before 1955 to folk music after 1955. there's certainly been a merging of the ideas starting with zappa and the beatles and pink floyd. but, i really don't think these differences come out if you do like comparisons: debussy to stockhausen or nirvana to ledbetter or bjork to billie holiday or one direction to traditional nursery rhymes.

the only thing i'd pull out as probably being substantially different is that you previously wouldn't expect people in their 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s to experience the kind of arrested development they experience today. they would have grown out of the nursery rhymes, not latch on to successive ones until they're grandparents. so, the real issue is the juvenilization of society.

www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/science-proves-pop-music-has-actually-gotten-worse-8173368/?no-ist
"manage the economy", again.

what does that mean !?!?!?

at least we got a little data on budget spending, here. this is what i've been thinking, it's nice to see a little support for it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadians-believe-economy-is-in-recession-okay-with-deficit-poll/article26119298/

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

no, tom. tax cuts *don't* create jobs!

it doesn't work when a conservative does it, it doesn't work when a liberal does it and it doesn't work when a member of the ndp does it, either.

it might work if an mlm did it, because they'd just make up the employment report after and put you in jail if you argue.

in general, though, it doesn't matter what party somebody is in when they cut taxes. nary a job will appear.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-mulcair-manufacturing-1.3204311
i'm in the group of people that doesn't expect a rebound any time soon. the factors keeping oil down are pretty long term, and more likely to exacerbate. there will not be another reset in american-russian relations, nor is russia likely to fall apart any time soon as they've been banking on.

this should hopefully allow local businesses an opportunity to rebuild. i'm sick of buying tomatoes from mexico and strawberries from california. let's get the infrastructure for indoor growing up and running. you do it in bulk, you cut down on costs. and, the bigger the space, the more solar panels you can set up.

the reality is that a low dollar is a far better job creation strategy than any kind of tax cut or pipeline scheme - but it has to be maintained. and, hopefully we can get some leadership in place that's more concerned about jobs in the local economy, and is willing to set rates to keep the dollar low, than it is about investors and money launderers.

www.cbc.ca/news/business/enjoy-canada-s-low-dollar-while-you-can-don-pittis-1.3203133

Andy the Great

Low dollar is good for the super rich, not the common person!

You must be love the super rich then, the low dollar only helps them. Also it does not affect the labour market since most companies are not spending because of the low CDN!

As for Russia. Most people there only earn $500 CDN a year. Yeah let copy them

Jessica Murray
the reason the dollar is down is that the united states has put sanctions in place to hurt the russian economy. it's always funny that conservatives continue to be stuck in the 20th century in their insinuations that leftists have some kind of affiliation with russia. russia is one of the most right-wing countries in the world. and the fact is that stephen harper and vladimir putin have a lot in common.

one of the things they have in common is that they both banked very strongly on high oil prices. what that means is that sanctions designed to hurt russia by cutting the price of oil will also drive down the canadian dollar, because harper's economic policies are very similar to putin's, which has put us in a situation where we will suffer the same effects as they are from the sanctions put in place to harm them.

oops.

the truth is that there's a long list of similar screw-ups, including selling our oil to our protector's largest competitor. that's not going to happen.

it follows that the continued tensions between the united states and russia will have a long-term effect on the canadian dollar. which means you should get used to a low dollar.

one way around this is to diversify the economy. my understanding is that this will require a change in government.

now, regarding the dollar, the idea that it helps the rich is pretty much completely absurd. i'm not sure where you're getting that from, but it sounds like a conservative talking point - because it's the precise opposite of the reality of the situation.

as mentioned, it makes our labour costs relatively lower, which attracts investment. it makes our exports more competitive. and, it acts as somewhat of a tariff in the sense that it makes locally produced products cheaper than imports. these are all excellent things for the working class.

but, it's bad news for people with currency reserves, currency manipulators, certain types of investors and a long list of other wealthy people.

as an aside, the reason there's been little spending by corporations is because there's been little demand for products. this is largely an issue related to stagnant wages and rising *household* debt - people don't have a lot of disposable income. there's a few ways to try and stimulate that. a tax cut for middle wage earners is a good idea in principle. as might be traditional keynesian spending.

i'd personally take somewhat of a step back from that, due to recent structural changes in the economy. a lower dollar might actually help to reverse those changes, in the sense that it acts somewhat as a tariff. that would take time.

but, nobody would ever argue that a lower dollar would act as a disincentive for investment in canada. quite the opposite would be true.

Andy the Great
Good solution, one currency for North America and call it the dollar !

Jessica Murray
that's the one and only way to turn canada into greece. no thanks.
again: it's just all a giant exercise in absurdity. first, we had the conservatives claiming they were best at managing the economy. now, we've got everybody arguing over who is going to best manage the economy.

governments don't manage the economy.

tax cuts for businesses don't create jobs. tax increases for businesses don't destroy jobs. targeted tax cuts for consumers can increase purchases, but it's no longer clear that this creates jobs, either. direct investment can create jobs, but there are now rules in place that restrict our ability to do this. the only thing government can do to create middle class jobs is directly hire people - it can expand itself.

a low dollar makes us more competitive for jobs with high capital mobility (like call centers), and more competitive with exports (like cheese). in the context of expanding free trade, this is a good thing and should be maintained.

budget deficits do not affect the economy.

just, please, do me a favour: when you finally get rid of this government, do everything you can to change the ballot question and the narrative. we've reduced elections to a process of deciding which party is better at doing something that government doesn't do, and erected an entire vocabulary of nonsense in the process. the whole narrative is completely in the realm of fantasy. and, we wonder why nobody votes...

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-justin-trudeau-accuses-tom-mulcair-of-austerity-over-balanced-budget-pledge-1.3202773
i just want to point out that there's no such thing as a blue liberal. i know it seems fair and everything, so your sense of fair play and equal treatment will scream at you. you want the symmetry, at least. but? nope. and there really never has been. there's not a trace of these people in any poll ever taken. the truth is that they're all red tories, there in that fiscally responsible and socially liberal space. once you get left of red tory, harper's never had - and never will have - a fighting chance. it's an impenetrable brick wall of perpetual concern regarding social issues.

but, i'm going to give harper a gift, because i'd like to realign the spectrum. what we've got going on currently isn't of much use to me. i don't want a right-wing ndp government.

something harper seems to have missed in his micro-polling and over-targeting is that there's a significant pool of voters that could be called "tim horton's socialists". i've been in broad contact with these people through various social organizing. the provincial ndp in ontario has been targeting these voters to varying effects, but is limited by where it can move. harper is less limited on this front, because he's more aligned with a syncretic kind of social credit position than anything traditionally conservative. the dynamic is reversed: these are voters that are socially conservative and fiscally socialist. they want big spending and help for the poor, but are rather right-wing on a host of issues from immigration to abortion to the death penalty.

if you conservatives want to help the left get rid of these voters, i think we'd both be better off.

ipolitics.ca/2015/08/25/its-not-your-first-election-mr-harper-time-to-stop-screwing-up/
this is scott brison's riding. i suspect it's a deal to ensure the ndp doesn't split the vote, in exchange for a cabinet position should they win. the ndp were not likely to win the riding, but a bigger than normal ndp turnout could cut into the liberal vote enough to swing it to the conservatives.

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/death-of-a-candidacy

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

thoughts on the latest spencer krug recording

i've listened to a few tracks off this record, and i'll admit that i grasp why a pop audience would react positively to it - it sounds fancy. i'm not being an ass on purpose (although i probably couldn't prevent myself), but it's the basic idea. it gives you the opportunity to put down the garbage you normally listen to and feel sophisticated and upper class for an hour. and, maybe it might act as somewhat of a gateway.

but, it's just so terribly contrived. the cadences. the crescendos. it's blatant cliche, and clearly consciously designed to maximize itself as such. and, on top of that, he plays the instrument like a blunt poke in the eye - most of the record sounds like a player piano. not a sequencer. you can program dynamics into a sequencer. this is just straight artillery fire.

the guy has demonstrated potential. and his refusal to do what he's expected is definitely refreshing. but, i'm sorry to say that this is some of the deadest piano music that i've heard.

this is uncharacteristically interesting, coming from spencer krug. it's evidence that he maybe needs to slow down a little and focus on writing a handful of good songs every few months rather than a constant stream of mediocre ones. to put it another way, it's evidence that he's able to create a really good record if he wants to. electronic pop is such a saturated space nowadays, and so little of it is worth engaging with. it's a treat when you do run across that rare solid disc in the constant stream of fluffy noise.

thoughts on the new pinkish black single

the last one took a bit to click, but it eventually did, and this is likewise a bit disorienting. you have to give this band full marks for a subtle evolution. but it comes with the caveat that they're getting harder to follow because they seem to be getting poppier and poppier.


this is moving slowly into something like spencer krug territory.

(that one record he did, organ music - not vibraphone music like i hoped, is actually uncharacteristically interesting. it's a saturated space, with a lot of mediocrity, but nothing hits you in the gut like a good, dark, smart synth pop song.)
yup.

actual weekly results

To: nnanos@nanosresearch.com

hi.

i'm just curious if you'd be willing to start releasing your actual weekly results in your pdfs. i know your sample sizes are small, so it's important to be cautious and everything. but i'm sure you're aware that the media tends to (on purpose or not) not understand the difference between a snap poll and a rolling average, and is consistently reporting your results as a snap poll. i realize there's value in what you're doing. but, if you were to put the actual weekly data at the bottom of the pdf somewhere, it would help people construct and understand your results better.

j
it's a scam. it's not a way to reduce emissions. it's a way to convert emissions into an abstraction that can be inflated and deflated into profits for investors. in a sense, it's the sacred cow that industry has been looking for since the beginning of industrialization: how can we turn waste products into profits?

the basic premise is that the solution to capitalism is more capitalism.

people are going to look back at cap & trade as the defining symptom of an utterly insane society.

i've never liked this question, because it's not clear what it means for a government to "manage an economy" in a global free market system. i mean, it's a perception thing, i get that. but, then you're not really measuring what people actually think - you're doing market research on the effectiveness of the conservative election propaganda. they themselves never actually explain what they mean by "managing the economy". i pay pretty close attention, and have for many years, and ten years on it's still just a vague slogan. the entire narrative has always been incoherent.

i mean, i could understand the marxist-leninist-maoist party running on a platform of "managing the economy". they'd lay out their four year economic action plans, and we'd get our chance to put some input into it. of course, they probably wouldn't listen. nor would they respect the results of the election. i digress.

it's important because if the question is just a measurement of how people are reacting to ads then it's not actually an election driver. it would become interchangeable with whatever else is being advertised, because it's just the repetition of a slogan. people changing their mind wouldn't suggest any change in opinion so much as it would say something about the effectiveness of various ads. i don't think that's actually true - or at least not broadly. i give people more credit than that. but unless the question is specified, it's not clear what people mean when they're changing their views, or what they even meant in the first place. even if it's just a perception, there must be a thought process underlying it.

if they could be a little bit more specific, it would be helpful in understanding if this is actually an election issue or if it's just an advertising issue.

i've generally interpreted the shift in this question as the populace stepping back from neo-liberalism and free markets and re-evaluating keynesianism and social democracy. there's also some evidence that marx has become somewhat trendy recently, although i'm not sure how relevant that is, or how well people understand any of it. but, the neo-liberal model has taken a bit of a beating in the public sphere (and quite badly over social media) so it seems rational and consistent with my experience that people that are rejecting the conservatives on "managing the economy" - or not managing the economy - are swinging left on it.

but, i'm not entirely sure that that's justified.

it would certainly help the direction of public policy over the next decade if some polling could clarify.

more pointedly: are they rejecting the neo-liberal ideology, or are they rejecting the conservative party?

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-economy-leaders-aug25-1.3201735
you have to understand that the nanos polling is a rolling average, not a snap poll. it's not nik's fault. he's clear about what he's doing. but, it's consistently reported inaccurately.

this report does not suggest that the parties are running at that level right now. it suggests that it is the average level of support that they ran at last month. to present it as a snap poll is dishonest - perhaps accidentally, as i know that journalists are often not so good at math.

the value of this kind of polling is to track long term trends. and, because nik's samples are so small and consequently vary a lot, it works together to smooth itself out.

it's a measure of party viability. and, because this election is so long, it may be useful in understanding where people's brains really are in the long run, rather than where their votes are in the short-run.

it's just important that you understand what you're actually reading. and, it would help if the media were clearer about it.

nik's polls have a lag built into them - it's by design. it's just measuring something else. they will align with the current consensus over the next month, as they catch up. but, by then, the consensus may have changed, and they'll be behind again.

right now, they're useful because the race is young and there's a lot of undecideds. but, as we get closer and closer to the election, this method will be unable to predict last minute changes.

for example, something you can pull out of nik's polling that you won't see elsewhere is that the ndp support base in quebec is relatively weak - some of that support is torn between the bloc and the ndp, whereas some of it is torn between the ndp and the liberals. it's not that snap polling would be over-estimating current support so much as it's pointing out that the current support level is not strong, not decided and still open to switching.

it also suggests that the ndp support in ontario is very weak, and possibly driven by perception about who has a better chance of winning. again: that's not to suggest that the snap polling is wrong. it's to suggest that the support is not strong.

and, so the takeaway is that the race is still wide open, and that the snap polling at this early stage should be taken with some caution.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/three-main-federal-parties-tangled-in-three-way-tie-nanos-poll/article26090470/
see, i share this concern. but, it's why i think it's important to stand up. remember when we claimed no allegiance to countries, to leaders or states? when we would kill the generals on our own side to stop the war, rather than continue to fight it? so, why are we marching in lock stop with this party as it swings well to the right of the liberals?

there's an alternate outcome of this sad tale: the caucus revolts, starts a new party and rejuvenates itself. will there be enough independent voices left to do so? if not in parliament, then certainly outside of it.

we will win most of our battles in court. we all know this. but, if we continue to support the same policies under a different slogan, we embolden them to continue.

you don't have to stand in line. you can vote for another party to send a  message. or not vote at all to send an even stronger one, if you see nothing you can truly support.

and, if harper wins again? well, can you point to a single policy point where the ndp is truly preferable?

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/j-baglow/2015/08/mulcairs-lead-polls-does-not-protect-him-criticism
these articles never say anything about transmarginal inhibition. i think we're all mostly ultra-paradoxical on most advertising, and that it can consequently backfire badly.

the opposition hasn't helped, either. i think the truth is that all the liberals had to do to win last election was not run a war criminal. they couldn't figure out how to find a candidate that wasn't a war criminal, apparently. the liberals that did vote swung to the ndp.

it's a kind of a correlation v. causality thing. when the dust lifts, i think we're going to realize that we're attributing far more to harper than we ought to, and that rather than being some kind of evil genius, the truth is that he's really an absolute imbecile that's had the good fortune of dealing with the most incompetent opposition in canadian history.

thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/08/24/Polarizing-Voter-Tactics/

Monday, August 24, 2015

we need to turf that fixed elections law.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-harper-economy-markets-1.3201727
farmers,

i wouldn't expect the conservatives to move on this. they benefit from maintaining their print media bias, and restricting the spectrum of opinions. and you, our necessary producers of the only thing we all absolutely need, are their rock solid core of support. they'd rather you just keep your subscription to the national post.

this is something you could move on yourselves by laying cables. it's actually very easy and relatively inexpensive to set up a broadband internet connection - it's really just a question of laying cables. with a bit of starting capital, your kids could relatively easily set up isp businesses.

www.techvibes.com/blog/rural-canadians-internet-election-2015-08-24
this is a specific discussion forum. the logic underlying his decision to pull out of general debates without harper is strategically understandable, if questionable - there's a cost-benefit analysis, there. but, there's really only three reasons he could be seen to pull out of something like this:

1) elizabeth may. i think that's the big issue. he'd have been more likely to participate if it were an all male debate, or if there were at least two women. but, he's concerned that putting himself in a women's debate with a single female candidate is something that cannot end well. and, i think everybody can agree that he's probably right. that's something that trudeau's team probably should have thought through a bit better. there is only one possible winner of the debate.

2) the ndp is currently leading in the female vote. he doesn't want to risk that by contrasting himself with the other candidates.

3) how can i say this? his personal hygiene and general appearance is not his utmost priority. even with harper on the stage, he's clearly the least attractive of the candidates. this is a kind of an intangible, but mulcair is running a very psychologically-driven campaign and i have no doubt that this is a big part of the calculus.

to be honest with you, i'm not sure it's a great idea to have three or four guys and a sixty year-old pro-life female minister get together and talk women's rights, anyways. i don't see where that's going...

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/24/womens-issues-debate-called-off-after-mulcair-drops-out-organizers/

dtgraham
Personal hygiene? You can smell him through the TV? This is getting stupid at this point.

deathtokoalas
the beard is flat out gross. deal with it.

(deleted coment)

deathtokoalas
that wasn't intended as an insult. nor am i suggesting that women are going to just pick the cute one. but, there are complex psychological concerns at play here that the mulcair campaign was no doubt aware of.

running for prime minister is not a beauty contest, and this shouldn't be an issue in the campaign. but, that doesn't mean that there aren't certain optics that the mulcair campaign is going to seek to avoid, regarding the context of him standing next to trudeau.

(deleted comment)

deathtokoalas
if you would like to interpret my accurate observations as insults, that's your prerogative. but, a true statement does not have a moral value judgement attached to it. and, if you wish to cry over neutral and valid observations, i would suggest you find yourself a nice, isolated basement to do it in. once there, you won't have to deal with the oppression of the real world anymore. and, there's a bonus for the rest of us adults - we can discuss things openly, honestly and bluntly without having to worry about hurting your feelings.

i don't care if you're insulted or not. his appearance is unhygienic. that's a problem his campaign is aware of and will need to manage.

and, i will continue to speak over your obfuscating, politically correct howls.

Diggersin
Not shaving is not unhygienic. You sound OCD.

deathtokoalas
see, calling me ocd out of the blue is shitty form - that's the kind of thing you don't do, unless you're an asshole and have it branded on your t-shirt.

i live on disability for psychological reasons. i do have symptoms that align with ocd, but they are not very strong. your suspicion is mildly accurate.

but, it doesn't change the reality the facial hair is, in fact, both unhygienic on a practical level and unclean looking on an impressions level.

unlike most of the people that post on these sites, i am neither paid to support a party nor am i partisan hack. i'm interested in breaking through the noise and providing an objective, fact-based analysis. and i'm not concerned about tip-toeing around people's feelings as i do so.

fwiw, my education is more broad than it is specialized. like many young people, i was not able to determine what i wanted to study. in the process, i ended up completing multiple partial degrees. i only have one piece of paper, but you will find few people that have completed as many credits as i have. and i'm very confident that i'm speaking from an informed perspective.

if you are an expert in psychology, i would behoove you to expand upon my point rather than deflect from it.

dtgraham
Yes, you are suggesting that women are going to just pick the cute one. Otherwise why on earth would Mulcair have a problem with appearing on stage with Trudeau at a women's issues debate when he has no problem being on stage with him at any other debate that Harper attends? You have a very shallow opinion of women voters. If what you're saying were actually true, then Elizabeth May might as well skip it too.

deathtokoalas
i'm sorry that you were not able to understand the subtlety of my observations. it's a subconscious, psychological thing. and, it's not an obscure point, either. it's well understood that we form opinions based on first impressions, and that appearances are paramount in that process. if you set up a debate about women's issues with a bunch of dudes talking, you exacerbate that process. then, you end up with unconscious biases.

again: mulcair is running a very psychological campaign. this is first year stuff that his campaign is no doubt aware of. you can bet it was a part of the calculus.

every candidate has pros and cons. mulcair's a policy wonk, but he's kind of creepy looking and that's a liability in certain contexts. you can expect his campaign to continue to strategize around that.

i believe that the technical term for what i'm describing is "beardo".
this is definitely the set up to a stephen king novel, where the marionette takes control of the person that finds it and slowly drives them insane.

like, i'm sorry - but this is pornography. it's even porn music. i don't want to get all moral on your ass or something; i don't care if you enjoy porn. whatever. but, let's stop pretending that this is a music video. it's porn.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWnXB2tDvog
is this a plea to restore nasa funding?

"baby, you were there when we took our first step,
but now you've sold me out to investors on the free MAR-KET!"

baby, take me back..