but you expect an electable candidate to get the vote out and just plow over the fringe. they should be able to get 10% of the vote out, even in a low turnout primary. she couldn't do that; she got something more like 5% out.
my analysis still holds, the arab vote in michigan is concentrated in some areas and can result in local representation, but is actually very small overall statewide and really less important than the chinese or indian votes, although this outcome is certainly annoying to me. the guy won with like 8% of the vote because the mainstream candidate had no enthusiasm and swaths of people didn't vote at all. if you can't get the vote out at all, the fringe wins, and that's what happened. but, usually, the result of that is that they then get smashed in the general.
what i'm suspicious about here, however, is the influence of foreign arab governments as that seems to be a growing problem for the democrats, and it's clear that he was the big money candidate. the big money candidate didn't win by getting voters out. did all the money succeed in suppressing the vote, or did the congresswoman just not succeed in building her support? or did something more sinister happen, and votes disappear?
regardless, it seems like stevens couldn't get the vote out enough. even if there was fraud, american elections often have fraud and strong candidates beat fringe candidates anyways. money or not, and fraud or not, the fact that she lost to a fringe candidate indicates she wasn't a strong candidate.
with this matchup, rural michigan is going to vote 99% for the republicans in november and that's probably enough for an easy win. further, this candidate will have difficulty generating a voting coalition in the urban centres of liberal white women and blacks, which he just very convincingly proved. if you can't get urban blacks to vote for you in michigan, the rural whites will win in a landslide.