we'll see.

but, understand...

if they come in in the end at 15, 16, 17 then what that means is that the pollsters that had them higher - like nanos - were right the whole time, and that the pollsters that had them lower were wrong. that would still be a very poor showing, and they would still lose a lot of seats. with the ndp, the difference between 19 and 14 is nearly the difference between everything and nothing. but, it wouldn't be the clean wipe that they were facing when they were dwindling around 10-12 in some polls. don't argue that 17% support is a win for jagmeet singh; it's not, especially considering the circumstances. if they had run somebody like meghan leslie, they probably would have beaten the liberals.

if they come in at 10-14, then the pollsters that had them lower were right, and we'll be face to face with a bradley effect that we'll have to talk about. the media certainly set us up for it...

....and, if they do poll higher than that, it's increasingly clear that it's because they're pulling from the right of the spectrum, which is...it's not unpredictable. i predicted that, eventually. it's just ahead of schedule. they were supposed to get decimated this election, and then rebuild as a religious and right-wing party that is most attractive to recent immigrants, allowing the liberals to reclaim their historical position as secularists.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this