so, as was obvious, biden thinks he can win georgia and is going to campaign on flipping the south, which is exactly the same error that sanders made in the primaries, and exactly the same error that clinton made in 2016.

biden cannot win georgia. in fact, he's less popular amongst blacks than clinton was.

he can't win arizona, either - he's not popular amongst hispanics, at all.

this is why i went through this deconstruction in the primaries - i saw this coming, and wanted to argue against it.

if biden carries through with this strategy, he is going to lose very badly - worse than clinton did. why am i so sure of this? because it's the same strategy that clinton carried out, and he's a less popular candidate than clinton was with the demographics that he needs to carry over that strategy.

while he is less popular amongst blacks than clinton was, biden does seems to be more popular amongst older white voters than clinton was, so he may have a strategy to win states like ohio and pennsylvania, if he does this right. but, while he's more popular with white voters than clinton, and this is the actually reason he beat sanders in actual swing states, it's not clear if it's enough to beat trump in these states.

it's still the better strategy. and, if he sinks his resources into trying to win in the south, he's just going to have the same outcome as the last time somebody tried that, and the time before that, and...

if the democrats want to get 99% of black voters again, if they think that's their best approach, then they're going to have to run an actual black candidate.

and, i don't understand why they're having such a hard time with this, when it's so fucking obvious.