if el nino is an increase in ocean temperatures relative to the average, and the average is increasing due to climate change, is it not wise to question whether we are returning to el nino or merely observing climate change?

i suppose that what you'd need to do is measure the temperature differential. it is, after all, temperature differences that drive local climate events, rather than temperatures themselves.

if the entire system has increased, we may not be dealing with something we would recognize as "el nino". i mean, we may be dealing with something, for sure. just not el nino....