Saturday, February 28, 2026

i don't think that trying to incentivize iran to surrender is a very good strategy.

the action i support is an overwhelming obliteration in one blow, and that's not what the us is doing. they're trying to bully them into submission. that's just giving them an opportunity to plan a counter-offensive.

you can't reason with the faithful. trump doesn't believe in god, but the iranians do, and they think their god will protect them and deliver them. there is no way to rationalize with the psychosis of faith. if trump's deal-making is psychotic with a rational actor, it's idiotic with an irrational one.

it is easy to predict that if the americans try to do this methodically, target by target, negotiating with each one, it's just going to blow up in their face, and lead to a drawn out war. the russians are busy, but the chinese will slip in. the iranians will mobilize all kinds of crazy people.

the right tactic is overwhelming but pinpointed destruction intended to completely eliminate every aspect of the regime with no possibility for surrender, not careful negotiation and case by case litigation by force. you can't negotiate with the religious.

there was a way to do this that might have worked but they're not doing it and this looks like it's doomed to turn into an inescapable mess the americans can't get out of.