what if they stay shut down in toronto and los angeles and see a rapid ramp up, anyways?
well, that's what i think we're about to see.
and, we'll all have to learn the right lessons from that.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
i'm going to repeat myself a little, to clarify the point i'm making.
this is a jpg of an earlier image i posted, scrawled over slightly in a javascript clone of microsoft's paint.
new york is bigger and more densely populated than anywhere else on this continent, so the numbers in new york will inevitably be bigger than anywhere else. so, we can scratch the numbers out, along with the dates. it's the shape of the curve you want to look at...
we have been getting mixed messages about where we are on this curve in places like toronto and los angeles, with some suggestions that we are passing the peak. that's where the green arrow points.
however, i think these suggestions are past the point of optimistic and are rather just flat out delusional. deaths are piling up in both of these places, at higher rates, not lower rates. lower case counts are probably better explained in both jurisdictions by under-testing than they are by decreasing transmission rates.
further, it would seem as though the introduction of the virus into new york was very, very early - which is why it peaked very, very early, relative to other jurisdictions. toronto is probably not days behind new york, as the green arrow would suggest, but weeks - or even months.
rather, i think we're in the part of the curve that the red arrow points to.
we'll see who is right over the next seven to ten days or so.
my track record, so far, has been pretty good...but it's your prerogative as to what you should believe and what you shouldn't. don't take me or anybody else on authority. what do you think, based on the evidence presented to you?
if toronto and los angeles are where the red arrow points, it would mean that cities like calgary and winnipeg are at an even earlier stage. they may not peak in calgary until july. i suspect that detroit and montreal are both further along, but are not at the peak quite yet. i got very sick in detroit in early december....
so, what does that mean for re-opening?
first, you have to realize that it means that much of the country shut down too early, and is now talking about reopening before they peak. is that potentially catastrophic? is it worse than staying shut down until the fall?
see, i'm not yet sold on the efficacy of any of these measures, so i'm not yet sold on the idea that any of these measures have made any difference, or that staying shut down will reduce transmission, much. it's easy to say "this is working", but we don't know that, yet.
if they ease up in toronto and see a spike in cases, they may very well blame it on easing up too early and call it a "second wave". but, i need to insist on rigour, here - there's no convincing evidence of a peak, and, rather, quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. that "second wave" may actually be the initial wave cresting.
i would favour re-opening, with specific measures taken to protect the weak. but, there's no clearly correct answer at this point, and the responses need to be strictly regional to account for it.
this is a jpg of an earlier image i posted, scrawled over slightly in a javascript clone of microsoft's paint.
new york is bigger and more densely populated than anywhere else on this continent, so the numbers in new york will inevitably be bigger than anywhere else. so, we can scratch the numbers out, along with the dates. it's the shape of the curve you want to look at...
we have been getting mixed messages about where we are on this curve in places like toronto and los angeles, with some suggestions that we are passing the peak. that's where the green arrow points.
however, i think these suggestions are past the point of optimistic and are rather just flat out delusional. deaths are piling up in both of these places, at higher rates, not lower rates. lower case counts are probably better explained in both jurisdictions by under-testing than they are by decreasing transmission rates.
further, it would seem as though the introduction of the virus into new york was very, very early - which is why it peaked very, very early, relative to other jurisdictions. toronto is probably not days behind new york, as the green arrow would suggest, but weeks - or even months.
rather, i think we're in the part of the curve that the red arrow points to.
we'll see who is right over the next seven to ten days or so.
my track record, so far, has been pretty good...but it's your prerogative as to what you should believe and what you shouldn't. don't take me or anybody else on authority. what do you think, based on the evidence presented to you?
if toronto and los angeles are where the red arrow points, it would mean that cities like calgary and winnipeg are at an even earlier stage. they may not peak in calgary until july. i suspect that detroit and montreal are both further along, but are not at the peak quite yet. i got very sick in detroit in early december....
so, what does that mean for re-opening?
first, you have to realize that it means that much of the country shut down too early, and is now talking about reopening before they peak. is that potentially catastrophic? is it worse than staying shut down until the fall?
see, i'm not yet sold on the efficacy of any of these measures, so i'm not yet sold on the idea that any of these measures have made any difference, or that staying shut down will reduce transmission, much. it's easy to say "this is working", but we don't know that, yet.
if they ease up in toronto and see a spike in cases, they may very well blame it on easing up too early and call it a "second wave". but, i need to insist on rigour, here - there's no convincing evidence of a peak, and, rather, quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. that "second wave" may actually be the initial wave cresting.
i would favour re-opening, with specific measures taken to protect the weak. but, there's no clearly correct answer at this point, and the responses need to be strictly regional to account for it.
my reaction to the modeling update in canada is that they're still over-estimating the mortality rate by about a factor of 10, despite apparently having roughly halved it. i'm not going to repeat myself.
i'd guess around 2-3% of the population is already infected, but that is national, and a bad calculation, conceptually - it would be lower than that in areas like manitoba or saskatchewan, and higher than that in the 401 corridor. as mentioned, off the cuff calculations suggest that the gta could be nearing 20%, even as swift current is still less than 1%.
as the nature of how this disease spreads is inherently local, it's probably a bad idea to rely on federal modeling, and i'm not really going to blame the feds for bad modelling - asking them to do this is actually really the wrong approach. you don't even really want to even look at provincial models, except maybe in small provinces like pei. the six major provinces in this country are each geographically equivalent to the order of 10-15 different states, and the low population density just exacerbates the point. you really want to look specifically at cities, and metropolitan areas.
there are areas of canada that are so remote and so sparsely populated, that they might not have serious epidemics at all and, if they do, may only see first waves in the fall. even a city like thunder bay, which is a substantive population centre, is unlikely to be experiencing much through traffic of the sort that spreads disease.
it's cities like toronto, montreal, calgary and vancouver (as well as border cities like windsor and niagara falls) that are potentially moving into the upswing of the curve over this week and the next, and that you shouldn't be expecting to peak for quite a while, still.
but, the basic analysis is that when you take diverse data sets and combine them too much, you water them down, and just create a worthless mess. that's what the updated federal models are doing - but that's all they ever could do. rather, you need to separate the data very carefully and look at things hyper-locally....
so, if i tell you it's propaganda, you should realize that it's intended to be.
i'd guess around 2-3% of the population is already infected, but that is national, and a bad calculation, conceptually - it would be lower than that in areas like manitoba or saskatchewan, and higher than that in the 401 corridor. as mentioned, off the cuff calculations suggest that the gta could be nearing 20%, even as swift current is still less than 1%.
as the nature of how this disease spreads is inherently local, it's probably a bad idea to rely on federal modeling, and i'm not really going to blame the feds for bad modelling - asking them to do this is actually really the wrong approach. you don't even really want to even look at provincial models, except maybe in small provinces like pei. the six major provinces in this country are each geographically equivalent to the order of 10-15 different states, and the low population density just exacerbates the point. you really want to look specifically at cities, and metropolitan areas.
there are areas of canada that are so remote and so sparsely populated, that they might not have serious epidemics at all and, if they do, may only see first waves in the fall. even a city like thunder bay, which is a substantive population centre, is unlikely to be experiencing much through traffic of the sort that spreads disease.
it's cities like toronto, montreal, calgary and vancouver (as well as border cities like windsor and niagara falls) that are potentially moving into the upswing of the curve over this week and the next, and that you shouldn't be expecting to peak for quite a while, still.
but, the basic analysis is that when you take diverse data sets and combine them too much, you water them down, and just create a worthless mess. that's what the updated federal models are doing - but that's all they ever could do. rather, you need to separate the data very carefully and look at things hyper-locally....
so, if i tell you it's propaganda, you should realize that it's intended to be.
he says he was being "sarcastic", which is....listen, everybody's known for years that americans do not understand irony.
he should have used the word facetious, instead. it's at least an explanation. i'll cite occam's razor on this.
so, do you blame jim jones for the massacre? the idiots willingly drank it...
what is the opposite hypothesis - that we shouldn't question the president? that we should just shut up and do what he says, and blame him if he he's wrong?
you can keep your bacon cheeseburgers with french fries under the bun. but, that would be the end of the american revolution, wouldn't it?
he's right: you need to take responsibility for your own actions. the absurdity of the scenario is just demonstrative of the point....
he should have used the word facetious, instead. it's at least an explanation. i'll cite occam's razor on this.
so, do you blame jim jones for the massacre? the idiots willingly drank it...
what is the opposite hypothesis - that we shouldn't question the president? that we should just shut up and do what he says, and blame him if he he's wrong?
you can keep your bacon cheeseburgers with french fries under the bun. but, that would be the end of the american revolution, wouldn't it?
he's right: you need to take responsibility for your own actions. the absurdity of the scenario is just demonstrative of the point....
yeah.
i think we need a darwin award for this one, really.
personally, i was thinking about injecting lysol, but where am i going to find a needle when everything is under lockdown?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-said-he-takes-no-responsibility-for-any-spike-in-people-using-disinfectants-improperly-1.4914851
i think we need a darwin award for this one, really.
personally, i was thinking about injecting lysol, but where am i going to find a needle when everything is under lockdown?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-said-he-takes-no-responsibility-for-any-spike-in-people-using-disinfectants-improperly-1.4914851
This marks the lowest number of patients reported in a single day since April 13, but the highest death count since the province began tracking cases daily earlier this year.
well, what does that tell you about testing loads?
we're going to end up with a 20% death rate due to undertesting...and it's not an accident....
let's hope it doesn't get too awful this week.
but, you need to brace for the reality that it probably will.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-57-more-deaths-sees-decrease-in-new-covid-19-cases-for-3rd-straight-day-1.4913266
well, what does that tell you about testing loads?
we're going to end up with a 20% death rate due to undertesting...and it's not an accident....
let's hope it doesn't get too awful this week.
but, you need to brace for the reality that it probably will.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-57-more-deaths-sees-decrease-in-new-covid-19-cases-for-3rd-straight-day-1.4913266
so, these were the re-releases from jan, 2014 that i'm working on, now:
1) the liquify single, newly split off from inrimake (see entry 3). this is now inri031. this is dated to the summer of 1999. it was remastered in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/liquify-ep
2) the book it! single, newly split off from inridiculous (see entry 4). this is now inri034. this is dated to late 1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/book-it-single
3) the newly expanded and finalized inrimake, without the liquify single (entry 1), which is download only. this is a covers & remixes collection, entirely unauthorized. it's now inri032. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from 1998.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inrimake-covers-lp-2
4) my third official record, inridiculous, was uploaded without modification, except to strip out the last track into the book it! single (entry 2). this is now inri033. i did not even remaster this record. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from as far back as 1996.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inridiculous
5) the inricycled b compilation was initially released in parallel to inricycled a as a way to salvage material from the 1997-1999 period that i thought was otherwise unworkable. when i realized in 2015 that i could actually remaster this material from tape, this compilation was deleted from my discography by appending it to the inrijected collection, inri022. i suppose the compilation dates to jan, 2014, even if the material is raided from 1996-1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/track/inricycled-b
6) the let freedom ring single, newly created from a discarded remix of a track on deny everything (see entry 11) that included martin luther king and doonesbury samples. this is now inri036. this is dated to late 1999 and early 2000. it was updated in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/let-freedom-ring-ep
7) the first ever release of the full curious george suite in it's original form, which was thought lost until it was found later in the year. this is dated to the spring of 2000. it is now inri037.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/the-curious-george-suite-ep
8) the ignorance is bliss single, with a comprehensive exploration of remixes of the track over the period of 2000-2014. the track was first written in 2000, but the lead track at this time was recreated from source in early 2014. it was updated with a final lead mix in 2017. this is inri038.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/ignorance-is-bliss-ep-single
9) my fourth symphony, released in final standalone form as the acidosis ep, for the first time. this recording was created in the summer of 2000 and has not been modified since. this is inri039.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/acidosis-ep
10) i also had to split off a separate curious george single, as the sample version did not exist until late 2000 and neither makes sense in the context of the suite, nor in the context of the record (now without any samples). this is a comprehensive collection of remixes created after 2000. this is inri040.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/curious-george-single
11) my fourth official record, deny everything, was initially created near the end of 2000 out of material created since late 1999. this record was re-released several times between 2000 and 2014; this is the final version, void of all vocal samples, except the star trek sample in gravity's rainbow. this is inri041.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/deny-everything-lp
12) my truncated experimental guitar experiment, an ep called j's adventures in guitarland, was one of the first things i uploaded to bandcamp back in 2010. it was re-released without further modification at this time. these are renaissance guitar pieces that i recorded in 2001. this is inri045.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/js-adventures-in-guitarland-ep
1) the liquify single, newly split off from inrimake (see entry 3). this is now inri031. this is dated to the summer of 1999. it was remastered in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/liquify-ep
2) the book it! single, newly split off from inridiculous (see entry 4). this is now inri034. this is dated to late 1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/book-it-single
3) the newly expanded and finalized inrimake, without the liquify single (entry 1), which is download only. this is a covers & remixes collection, entirely unauthorized. it's now inri032. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from 1998.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inrimake-covers-lp-2
4) my third official record, inridiculous, was uploaded without modification, except to strip out the last track into the book it! single (entry 2). this is now inri033. i did not even remaster this record. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from as far back as 1996.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inridiculous
5) the inricycled b compilation was initially released in parallel to inricycled a as a way to salvage material from the 1997-1999 period that i thought was otherwise unworkable. when i realized in 2015 that i could actually remaster this material from tape, this compilation was deleted from my discography by appending it to the inrijected collection, inri022. i suppose the compilation dates to jan, 2014, even if the material is raided from 1996-1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/track/inricycled-b
6) the let freedom ring single, newly created from a discarded remix of a track on deny everything (see entry 11) that included martin luther king and doonesbury samples. this is now inri036. this is dated to late 1999 and early 2000. it was updated in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/let-freedom-ring-ep
7) the first ever release of the full curious george suite in it's original form, which was thought lost until it was found later in the year. this is dated to the spring of 2000. it is now inri037.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/the-curious-george-suite-ep
8) the ignorance is bliss single, with a comprehensive exploration of remixes of the track over the period of 2000-2014. the track was first written in 2000, but the lead track at this time was recreated from source in early 2014. it was updated with a final lead mix in 2017. this is inri038.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/ignorance-is-bliss-ep-single
9) my fourth symphony, released in final standalone form as the acidosis ep, for the first time. this recording was created in the summer of 2000 and has not been modified since. this is inri039.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/acidosis-ep
10) i also had to split off a separate curious george single, as the sample version did not exist until late 2000 and neither makes sense in the context of the suite, nor in the context of the record (now without any samples). this is a comprehensive collection of remixes created after 2000. this is inri040.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/curious-george-single
11) my fourth official record, deny everything, was initially created near the end of 2000 out of material created since late 1999. this record was re-released several times between 2000 and 2014; this is the final version, void of all vocal samples, except the star trek sample in gravity's rainbow. this is inri041.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/deny-everything-lp
12) my truncated experimental guitar experiment, an ep called j's adventures in guitarland, was one of the first things i uploaded to bandcamp back in 2010. it was re-released without further modification at this time. these are renaissance guitar pieces that i recorded in 2001. this is inri045.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/js-adventures-in-guitarland-ep
...which means that i'm also finally ready to build the master document for january.
well, if i can recalibrate to understand what i was actually doing, anyways.
this is going to be tricky because i'm splitting tasks between the chromebook, which is online, and the pc, which is not. again: i don't connect my pcs to the internet at all. it's just not safe.
it's just going to mean an extra step in compiling....
well, if i can recalibrate to understand what i was actually doing, anyways.
this is going to be tricky because i'm splitting tasks between the chromebook, which is online, and the pc, which is not. again: i don't connect my pcs to the internet at all. it's just not safe.
it's just going to mean an extra step in compiling....
ok.
i've eaten and showered and tried to drink some coffee, but i'm oddly still sleepier than i should be. more coffee. more coffee. more....
it's getting better, i think.
i did try a few more versions of chrome on the 90s laptop as a backup, and it just spun out on me, indicating i'm missing some kind of internal files. that means that, if it turns out to be unworkable after all, i'll have to go to the next level of complexity in the image. i might be missing some directx files or something...
it's somehow the end of april already, so the next thing to do is build the list of shows that i can't go to in may - which should be shorter than usual, for obvious reasons.
i've eaten and showered and tried to drink some coffee, but i'm oddly still sleepier than i should be. more coffee. more coffee. more....
it's getting better, i think.
i did try a few more versions of chrome on the 90s laptop as a backup, and it just spun out on me, indicating i'm missing some kind of internal files. that means that, if it turns out to be unworkable after all, i'll have to go to the next level of complexity in the image. i might be missing some directx files or something...
it's somehow the end of april already, so the next thing to do is build the list of shows that i can't go to in may - which should be shorter than usual, for obvious reasons.
the who has apparently quietly walked back it's outlandish claims that there's no evidence that the presence of antibodies suggests immunity.
expect the associated retractions to be buried on page 57 of the new york times.
maybe you might require such a retraction before you believe it. but, any political leader that fell for that should be embarrassed, and any public health expert that fell for it should resign.
expect the associated retractions to be buried on page 57 of the new york times.
maybe you might require such a retraction before you believe it. but, any political leader that fell for that should be embarrassed, and any public health expert that fell for it should resign.
they are in some trouble, here.
they've borderline ruined the country trying to shut down a virus that's almost as contagious as the measles, and roughly as deadly as the flu.
so, they've got a major catastrophe of their own making on their hands.
what we know of this government is that they'll spin doctor everything they can until they can't get away with it anymore, so expect massive levels of face-saving bullshit for months.
and, i'll do what i can to cut through it and draw attention to what the actual science actually says.
they've borderline ruined the country trying to shut down a virus that's almost as contagious as the measles, and roughly as deadly as the flu.
so, they've got a major catastrophe of their own making on their hands.
what we know of this government is that they'll spin doctor everything they can until they can't get away with it anymore, so expect massive levels of face-saving bullshit for months.
and, i'll do what i can to cut through it and draw attention to what the actual science actually says.
on one side, you have a slew of peer-reviewed papers and a developing scientific consensus.
on the other side, you have the government of canada, as led by a trust fund kid and a couple of truly amateur spin doctors.
which of these two options exists in an alternative reality?
the scientific consensus? or the government?
on the other side, you have the government of canada, as led by a trust fund kid and a couple of truly amateur spin doctors.
which of these two options exists in an alternative reality?
the scientific consensus? or the government?
i have posted numerous peer-reviewed or pre-print studies that draw attention to the increased contagiousness and decreased mortality of the disease.
the government needs to accept this data and adjust to it, not pretend it's an "alternative theory".
i mean, alternative to what? the government models? lol.
it's the government that's in an alternative reality, but that's the status quo, isn't it?
the government needs to accept this data and adjust to it, not pretend it's an "alternative theory".
i mean, alternative to what? the government models? lol.
it's the government that's in an alternative reality, but that's the status quo, isn't it?
the scientific consensus right now is that there are very high infection rates in most places (certainly much higher than reported), and this is variable on geography and connectivity. so, toronto would have much higher infection rates than moose jaw or swift current - for now.
how much higher? that's what we don't know yet.
we need to do antibody testing to put proper bounds on this, but the consensus is that it is many orders of magnitude greater than has been tested for directly, or ever could be - 50x, 80x, 100x.
certainly, 10% would be a lower bound for cities right now, based on data from sewage. but, just based on the death rate in ontario, which is about 900, infection rates around 20% are very easy to calculate with off the cuff calculations. this is the consensus opinion, and has been from the start, regardless of what your twitter feed says.
how much higher? that's what we don't know yet.
we need to do antibody testing to put proper bounds on this, but the consensus is that it is many orders of magnitude greater than has been tested for directly, or ever could be - 50x, 80x, 100x.
certainly, 10% would be a lower bound for cities right now, based on data from sewage. but, just based on the death rate in ontario, which is about 900, infection rates around 20% are very easy to calculate with off the cuff calculations. this is the consensus opinion, and has been from the start, regardless of what your twitter feed says.
am i a reliable source?
well, it depends on what i'm citing, doesn't it?
i think i tend to base my analysis and deduction on fairly reliable evidence, but i'll leave it up to you to work that out.
you'd be daft to ever, ever believe a politician, though - they are the absolute worst source of information out there.
well, it depends on what i'm citing, doesn't it?
i think i tend to base my analysis and deduction on fairly reliable evidence, but i'll leave it up to you to work that out.
you'd be daft to ever, ever believe a politician, though - they are the absolute worst source of information out there.
every day, more and more science is being published that debunks the ridiculous narrative put forward by our governments - a narrative that educated people knew from the start was tentative at best, and in truth clearly outlandish.
they can't continue along this path very much longer, before they fall into the realm of conspiracy theory.
we've seen the likes of chrystia freeland do this before, with counter-factual narratives about venezuela, as one example.
we need to stay vigilant, here.
we need to stay skeptical.
the science in the journals takes precedent over the narratives by the media and government, or viral memes on social media. let's not forget that, as they increasingly diverge, and our governments increasingly fall into nonsense-based delusions.
they can't continue along this path very much longer, before they fall into the realm of conspiracy theory.
we've seen the likes of chrystia freeland do this before, with counter-factual narratives about venezuela, as one example.
we need to stay vigilant, here.
we need to stay skeptical.
the science in the journals takes precedent over the narratives by the media and government, or viral memes on social media. let's not forget that, as they increasingly diverge, and our governments increasingly fall into nonsense-based delusions.
however, very high infection rates - over 20% - are not an "alternate theory". that's what the science actually says, and has said all along.
rather, it's this idea being spread in the media that there are very low infection rates, along with the efficacy of social distancing and "flattening the curve", that are an "alternative theory" that is not aligned with the facts or with the scientific consensus.
science is not worked out on msnbc, it's worked out in peer-reviewed journals - and the latter has not upheld the narrative in the former.
rather, it's this idea being spread in the media that there are very low infection rates, along with the efficacy of social distancing and "flattening the curve", that are an "alternative theory" that is not aligned with the facts or with the scientific consensus.
science is not worked out on msnbc, it's worked out in peer-reviewed journals - and the latter has not upheld the narrative in the former.
saskatchewan has not seen the kind of numbers yet that would be reflective of widespread infection and immunity.
in north america, the only place where that seems to be true at this point are a handful of major cities that include new york for certain, and potentially detroit. it is likely far more widespread in europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748
in north america, the only place where that seems to be true at this point are a handful of major cities that include new york for certain, and potentially detroit. it is likely far more widespread in europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748
Monday, April 27, 2020
so, i'm eating before i shower and move on, and we're back to this again, which i'm just starting over from the start.
the gravitation example of F=mg is actually quite useful, because we know that newton's cosmology does not have infinite precision at all, but is rather governed by error relating to what we call the n-body problem. in a newtonian approach to this problem, however deprecated, we need to work in the effects of perturbations from the sun, jupiter and all of the other planetary bodies in order to come up with a perfect orbit, which is not spherical or elliptical at all but, rather, a bumpy and chaotic ride through extreme turbulence.
the point i want to get across is this - in the context of newton's theory, we don't consider this to be "randomness". it's a very hard problem, certainly - unsolvable, in fact. the best we can do is make guesses using differential equations. however, if we didn't understand gravity, we could model the problem using a statistical analysis, and replace the physics that we know exists and call gravity with randomness. and, you know what? we'd get something that's startlingly accurate, if we did that.
just think that through a bit.
the gravitation example of F=mg is actually quite useful, because we know that newton's cosmology does not have infinite precision at all, but is rather governed by error relating to what we call the n-body problem. in a newtonian approach to this problem, however deprecated, we need to work in the effects of perturbations from the sun, jupiter and all of the other planetary bodies in order to come up with a perfect orbit, which is not spherical or elliptical at all but, rather, a bumpy and chaotic ride through extreme turbulence.
the point i want to get across is this - in the context of newton's theory, we don't consider this to be "randomness". it's a very hard problem, certainly - unsolvable, in fact. the best we can do is make guesses using differential equations. however, if we didn't understand gravity, we could model the problem using a statistical analysis, and replace the physics that we know exists and call gravity with randomness. and, you know what? we'd get something that's startlingly accurate, if we did that.
just think that through a bit.
there's another test, the situational judgement test, which evaluates how you behave in the workplace.
i've failed this test repeatedly, and would probably fail it again if asked to write it, now.
as far as i can tell, i just fundamentally disagree with the answers in such a way that i can't actually grasp how to answer the scenarios correctly - i don't think i'm failing a judgement test, so much as i think i'm failing a values test. you'd have to send me to boot camp....
but, maybe my answers are actually correct - maybe the government is wrong.
i'm sleepy this evening and i'm not sure why, but let's try to get some coffee and wake up.
i've failed this test repeatedly, and would probably fail it again if asked to write it, now.
as far as i can tell, i just fundamentally disagree with the answers in such a way that i can't actually grasp how to answer the scenarios correctly - i don't think i'm failing a judgement test, so much as i think i'm failing a values test. you'd have to send me to boot camp....
but, maybe my answers are actually correct - maybe the government is wrong.
i'm sleepy this evening and i'm not sure why, but let's try to get some coffee and wake up.
i think i've told you the story about the gct2 test.
the gct2 test is a basic iq test for the canadian public service, so a very large number of canadians have written it and know what it is. i don't think i ever wrote the gct1 test. i last wrote the gct2 some time around 2007 or 2008, for an entry level position with statscan, which i caved in and applied for after getting nagged about it for however long.
my father was keenly interested in the results of this test because everybody knows that you never beat your dad at chess. he projected confidence that he'd score higher, but you could tell he was worried. so, i had to deal with daily haranguing from him ("did you get the score yet?") for what seemed like months...
i'll never forget the reaction.
he wouldn't actually tell me his mark until he saw mine, he just told me i wouldn't beat it because it was higher than anybody he knew.
"did you get it? did you get it?"
it finally came in the form of a letter, and was 80/90, which is 89%. that's not that high a grade for me, so i'm initially not that impressed with myself. i knew the pass was 51/90, so i'm at least feeling good about the job, depending on the competition. so, i'm figuring he's bragging because he got somewhere in the 70s or 80s. you don't beat your dad at chess. so, i rounded up..
"yeah, it came in today. i got a 90, which i guess is not bad."
what?
"yeah, i could have maybe done a little better if i wasn't so tired, but hopefully that gets me an interview."
it's out of 90. you didn't get 90.
"no, i got 90 percent. it was 80/90."
he changed the topic very quickly, and i don't know what he actually got; he never brought it up again.
but, i get to the interview and the interviewer actually thinks it's a typo.
"that must be 80%, which is itself very high. a pass is 51. when i hire managers, they need to get over 70. i've never even heard of a score that high. we're going to get that checked..."
i didn't hear anything back from the interview, but nobody corrected the score.
i've looked this up since, and that mark is in the 99th percentile.
i had the same thing happen when we did standardized testing in elementary school, midway through the sixth grade. the teacher just did not believe the results when they came through. but, they were what they were.
are iq tests that useful? probably not, no. but, when you consistently ace them, it does tell you something.
so, i've frequently been frustrated for being misunderstood. maybe it's not your fault.
(edit - i can't find the document, so the exact numbers are from memory and they might be somewhat off. but, the scope of the story is the idea i'm trying to get across. the 99th percentile bit is precise, at least.)
the gct2 test is a basic iq test for the canadian public service, so a very large number of canadians have written it and know what it is. i don't think i ever wrote the gct1 test. i last wrote the gct2 some time around 2007 or 2008, for an entry level position with statscan, which i caved in and applied for after getting nagged about it for however long.
my father was keenly interested in the results of this test because everybody knows that you never beat your dad at chess. he projected confidence that he'd score higher, but you could tell he was worried. so, i had to deal with daily haranguing from him ("did you get the score yet?") for what seemed like months...
i'll never forget the reaction.
he wouldn't actually tell me his mark until he saw mine, he just told me i wouldn't beat it because it was higher than anybody he knew.
"did you get it? did you get it?"
it finally came in the form of a letter, and was 80/90, which is 89%. that's not that high a grade for me, so i'm initially not that impressed with myself. i knew the pass was 51/90, so i'm at least feeling good about the job, depending on the competition. so, i'm figuring he's bragging because he got somewhere in the 70s or 80s. you don't beat your dad at chess. so, i rounded up..
"yeah, it came in today. i got a 90, which i guess is not bad."
what?
"yeah, i could have maybe done a little better if i wasn't so tired, but hopefully that gets me an interview."
it's out of 90. you didn't get 90.
"no, i got 90 percent. it was 80/90."
he changed the topic very quickly, and i don't know what he actually got; he never brought it up again.
but, i get to the interview and the interviewer actually thinks it's a typo.
"that must be 80%, which is itself very high. a pass is 51. when i hire managers, they need to get over 70. i've never even heard of a score that high. we're going to get that checked..."
i didn't hear anything back from the interview, but nobody corrected the score.
i've looked this up since, and that mark is in the 99th percentile.
i had the same thing happen when we did standardized testing in elementary school, midway through the sixth grade. the teacher just did not believe the results when they came through. but, they were what they were.
are iq tests that useful? probably not, no. but, when you consistently ace them, it does tell you something.
so, i've frequently been frustrated for being misunderstood. maybe it's not your fault.
(edit - i can't find the document, so the exact numbers are from memory and they might be somewhat off. but, the scope of the story is the idea i'm trying to get across. the 99th percentile bit is precise, at least.)
i tell people i have three degrees, but it's a gloss.
i have an actual diploma for a b. mathematics, 2006. my first & second year grades were reflective of reality, i wasn't really engaged. some As, some Bs. i then ended up homeless over third year due to being thrown out of the house (my step-mother may claim otherwise, but i was thrown out for being transgendered), and found myself trying to juggle getting through the third year of an honours degree in mathematics, while living on my girlfriend's floor - my grades were reflective of the reality of the situation. but, when i finally got things back to some semblance of normality, i got very high marks in fourth year, which allowed me to graduate with a strong B+.
when you look at my transcript, it's straight Ds in third year and straight As in 4th year - unusual, and reflective of an odd underlying reality.
when i applied for grad school, i tried to get the point across - i was homeless in third year, and math is hard anyways, and especially when you're struggling to find somewhere safe to sleep. in hindsight, i wonder if those essays hindered more than helped. i didn't really have a class analysis at the time; i just assumed the school administrators were all far leftists and would see the obvious need to be empathetic. rather, what people saw was no doubt a B+ student with uneven grades, not an A student that got screwed over by a bigoted stepmother that literally told her to starve to death for being queer.
within a few years, i'd decided i was happier working part time in a call center doing surveys than i would be with a full time job, anyways. it was enough to pay the rent, and i had a lot of free time to write and record. for perhaps the first time in my life, i was actually legitimately happy, and it came via rejecting labour rather than embracing it. i really changed a lot in those years.
my father, however, was not satisfied with the scenario, and he continually badgered me to apply for government jobs that i didn't actually want. he even tried to buy me a car at one point to make me a better management candidate (which i turned down - i told him that if he wanted to throw money at me, he should pay my student debt down, which he declined. i had no interest in a vehicle, whatsoever; i didn't, and still don't, even have a driver's license. i didn't want to be anybody's boss.). i was, i think, the first person in his extended family to ever graduate from university, and he didn't seem to understand why i wasn't instantly transformed into the monopoly guy once i got my diploma - he'd been told his whole life that education was the way out of poverty, and was baffled to watch his oldest child get through school with decent grades and then end up worse off than he was, given that he never even graduated high school. my mother was an army brat and did not graduate high school, either. when i managed to convince him that an undergraduate degree in math with a B+ average isn't exactly the most impressive education, he just reacted by trying to send me to grad school. he was insistent that i'd go to school and get ahead through it.
he was delusional; that's not how our society works. rather, you're born into your place, and there's not much you can do about it. i am the offspring of poor, uneducated people. going to school and "working my way up" is no solution to that, and you'd have to be daft to actually think otherwise. my father was lucky enough to marry into the middle class, but it then predictably rejected me as unworthy. i'm exactly what i had little choice but to be...
so, the reason it didn't work was his wife's fault, in the first place. most third year students that find themselves homeless due to conflicts with their stupid parents don't end up graduating at all - i'm the exception. but, it wasn't enough. those Ds are there forever.
i actually didn't want to go to grad school anymore and, by that time, i was old enough and independent enough to tell him "no.". i had an apartment downtown that i liked, a job across the street that paid the bills and tons of free time to spend on things i actually cared about; i didn't want to move back to the suburbs to live in his basement and work towards a math degree to get a job i didn't want (and probably wouldn't get, anyways). i was legitimately happy for probably the first time, and didn't actually want things to change. i had finally defined myself in terms i was happy about, in ways that transcended the childishness of careerism.
in the middle of 2008, just before the economy crashed, he managed to talk me into it by presenting me with a bribe: if i'd only agree to go back to school, he'd pay the tuition out of his savings account and pay my rent, as well. but, i'd have to get straight As.
i decided that that was even better than things were. that was a huge mistake...
so, carleton let me back in on a qualifying year with that B+, because they at least knew me and realized i did good work most of the time. if i could get straight As in the qualifying year, as i did in 4th year, i could start the master's degree the next year. but, i got cold feet before it started.
i looked at the potential outcomes and bailed - i interpreted the outcome, a job at cra, as an absolute death sentence. i just couldn't go through with it. nor did i want to be an academic. if i was going to do this, i wanted a job in the private sector, in the end. living in ottawa, all of the private sector jobs were technology-oriented. so, i switched into an undergraduate computer science program, instead.
then, the market crashed and my father bailed on me, forcing me to take out a student loan at the last minute in order to pay my rent. he promised he'd pay it down when the economy recovered, but he never did. i've been broke without caring much ever since. that loan is now somewhere near $100,000, and he's long dead.
so, yes, i went back in 2008 and eventually got 19.5/20 credits for a computer science degree at a very high gpa (around 95%.) before deciding that i didn't want to do it anymore. i spent the last several semesters getting through the requirements of a three year sociology of law degree. i didn't graduate from either program. while i was in the computer science program, i also took enough graduate level math courses as electives to complete a master's degree, but i did not consider having that formally acknowledged. a large number of these courses would be categorized as "computer math".
rather, i was accepted into disability at the end of 2012 and realized that this is what i actually wanted out of life - financial stability, and the freedom to exist outside of the constraints of careerism. so, i essentially dropped out of school to go on odsp - because i interpreted that as a preferable path, as a way out of careerism.
so, yes - i essentially have a programming degree. but, i'm really not very techy.
it's a reality of capitalism - we need to center our labour aspirations around market demand. i didn't choose that subject out of a legitimate interest in it, i chose it because it looked like that's where the jobs were.
in the years since, i haven't kept up, but it's not because i lost interest - it's because i didn't have any interest in the first place.
if i could do it over again, i would have stayed in the part time job and told my father to fuck off.
i have an actual diploma for a b. mathematics, 2006. my first & second year grades were reflective of reality, i wasn't really engaged. some As, some Bs. i then ended up homeless over third year due to being thrown out of the house (my step-mother may claim otherwise, but i was thrown out for being transgendered), and found myself trying to juggle getting through the third year of an honours degree in mathematics, while living on my girlfriend's floor - my grades were reflective of the reality of the situation. but, when i finally got things back to some semblance of normality, i got very high marks in fourth year, which allowed me to graduate with a strong B+.
when you look at my transcript, it's straight Ds in third year and straight As in 4th year - unusual, and reflective of an odd underlying reality.
when i applied for grad school, i tried to get the point across - i was homeless in third year, and math is hard anyways, and especially when you're struggling to find somewhere safe to sleep. in hindsight, i wonder if those essays hindered more than helped. i didn't really have a class analysis at the time; i just assumed the school administrators were all far leftists and would see the obvious need to be empathetic. rather, what people saw was no doubt a B+ student with uneven grades, not an A student that got screwed over by a bigoted stepmother that literally told her to starve to death for being queer.
within a few years, i'd decided i was happier working part time in a call center doing surveys than i would be with a full time job, anyways. it was enough to pay the rent, and i had a lot of free time to write and record. for perhaps the first time in my life, i was actually legitimately happy, and it came via rejecting labour rather than embracing it. i really changed a lot in those years.
my father, however, was not satisfied with the scenario, and he continually badgered me to apply for government jobs that i didn't actually want. he even tried to buy me a car at one point to make me a better management candidate (which i turned down - i told him that if he wanted to throw money at me, he should pay my student debt down, which he declined. i had no interest in a vehicle, whatsoever; i didn't, and still don't, even have a driver's license. i didn't want to be anybody's boss.). i was, i think, the first person in his extended family to ever graduate from university, and he didn't seem to understand why i wasn't instantly transformed into the monopoly guy once i got my diploma - he'd been told his whole life that education was the way out of poverty, and was baffled to watch his oldest child get through school with decent grades and then end up worse off than he was, given that he never even graduated high school. my mother was an army brat and did not graduate high school, either. when i managed to convince him that an undergraduate degree in math with a B+ average isn't exactly the most impressive education, he just reacted by trying to send me to grad school. he was insistent that i'd go to school and get ahead through it.
he was delusional; that's not how our society works. rather, you're born into your place, and there's not much you can do about it. i am the offspring of poor, uneducated people. going to school and "working my way up" is no solution to that, and you'd have to be daft to actually think otherwise. my father was lucky enough to marry into the middle class, but it then predictably rejected me as unworthy. i'm exactly what i had little choice but to be...
so, the reason it didn't work was his wife's fault, in the first place. most third year students that find themselves homeless due to conflicts with their stupid parents don't end up graduating at all - i'm the exception. but, it wasn't enough. those Ds are there forever.
i actually didn't want to go to grad school anymore and, by that time, i was old enough and independent enough to tell him "no.". i had an apartment downtown that i liked, a job across the street that paid the bills and tons of free time to spend on things i actually cared about; i didn't want to move back to the suburbs to live in his basement and work towards a math degree to get a job i didn't want (and probably wouldn't get, anyways). i was legitimately happy for probably the first time, and didn't actually want things to change. i had finally defined myself in terms i was happy about, in ways that transcended the childishness of careerism.
in the middle of 2008, just before the economy crashed, he managed to talk me into it by presenting me with a bribe: if i'd only agree to go back to school, he'd pay the tuition out of his savings account and pay my rent, as well. but, i'd have to get straight As.
i decided that that was even better than things were. that was a huge mistake...
so, carleton let me back in on a qualifying year with that B+, because they at least knew me and realized i did good work most of the time. if i could get straight As in the qualifying year, as i did in 4th year, i could start the master's degree the next year. but, i got cold feet before it started.
i looked at the potential outcomes and bailed - i interpreted the outcome, a job at cra, as an absolute death sentence. i just couldn't go through with it. nor did i want to be an academic. if i was going to do this, i wanted a job in the private sector, in the end. living in ottawa, all of the private sector jobs were technology-oriented. so, i switched into an undergraduate computer science program, instead.
then, the market crashed and my father bailed on me, forcing me to take out a student loan at the last minute in order to pay my rent. he promised he'd pay it down when the economy recovered, but he never did. i've been broke without caring much ever since. that loan is now somewhere near $100,000, and he's long dead.
so, yes, i went back in 2008 and eventually got 19.5/20 credits for a computer science degree at a very high gpa (around 95%.) before deciding that i didn't want to do it anymore. i spent the last several semesters getting through the requirements of a three year sociology of law degree. i didn't graduate from either program. while i was in the computer science program, i also took enough graduate level math courses as electives to complete a master's degree, but i did not consider having that formally acknowledged. a large number of these courses would be categorized as "computer math".
rather, i was accepted into disability at the end of 2012 and realized that this is what i actually wanted out of life - financial stability, and the freedom to exist outside of the constraints of careerism. so, i essentially dropped out of school to go on odsp - because i interpreted that as a preferable path, as a way out of careerism.
so, yes - i essentially have a programming degree. but, i'm really not very techy.
it's a reality of capitalism - we need to center our labour aspirations around market demand. i didn't choose that subject out of a legitimate interest in it, i chose it because it looked like that's where the jobs were.
in the years since, i haven't kept up, but it's not because i lost interest - it's because i didn't have any interest in the first place.
if i could do it over again, i would have stayed in the part time job and told my father to fuck off.
so, this is what was happening, apparently.
and, that's a fairly recent thing.
there doesn't appear to be an active chromium-for-xp fork to use as a backup, meaning i need any alternative to chrome to both have tls 1.2 and be xp compatible, in addition to being html5 compliant. vivaldi 1.0 is the last xp version, and it's not tls 1.2 compliant. uc might be useful for xp, but i'm a little apprehensive about downloading a browser from china, still.
so, it seems like the best back up still remains chrome - spyware and all.
https://www.ghacks.net/2019/10/02/tls-1-0-and-1-1-deprecation-chrome-to-display-your-connection-is-not-fully-secure-warnings/
and, that's a fairly recent thing.
there doesn't appear to be an active chromium-for-xp fork to use as a backup, meaning i need any alternative to chrome to both have tls 1.2 and be xp compatible, in addition to being html5 compliant. vivaldi 1.0 is the last xp version, and it's not tls 1.2 compliant. uc might be useful for xp, but i'm a little apprehensive about downloading a browser from china, still.
so, it seems like the best back up still remains chrome - spyware and all.
https://www.ghacks.net/2019/10/02/tls-1-0-and-1-1-deprecation-chrome-to-display-your-connection-is-not-fully-secure-warnings/
the javascript is indeed still somewhat of a problem, which is partly because youtube is a pig with javascript, and partly due to the age of the machine. you can't turn that off, either.
but, the choppiness issue seems to be mostly fixed...
it works, at least - and it was updated at the beginning of this month. so, this is certainly my best option, so long as it runs smoothly enough to be usable.
ok.
i'm behind on eating again, so i'm going to focus on that before i get in the shower and probably crash.
so, i would have liked to get a bit more done today, certainly. but, if this solution holds, then it's at least a major step in the right direction towards being able to do the rather normal thing of making my self something to eat and watching a youtube stream at the table while i'm eating it. if i don't have to think about that anymore, it should be a step towards greater productivity in finishing the liner notes up.
if not, i think what i've learned is that my only other real option is to hone in on the correct older version of chrome.
but, the choppiness issue seems to be mostly fixed...
it works, at least - and it was updated at the beginning of this month. so, this is certainly my best option, so long as it runs smoothly enough to be usable.
ok.
i'm behind on eating again, so i'm going to focus on that before i get in the shower and probably crash.
so, i would have liked to get a bit more done today, certainly. but, if this solution holds, then it's at least a major step in the right direction towards being able to do the rather normal thing of making my self something to eat and watching a youtube stream at the table while i'm eating it. if i don't have to think about that anymore, it should be a step towards greater productivity in finishing the liner notes up.
if not, i think what i've learned is that my only other real option is to hone in on the correct older version of chrome.
there's some more people talking the issue out over here:
https://www.vogons.org/viewtopic.php?t=68054
i'm very much like tricia - if i literally don't go anywhere except academic pages on youtube, there is an exceedingly low chance i'm going to run into a virus on this machine.
but, i keep my access speed very low for this reason, and the reality is that there's nothing on the machine - and i'm happy to run an automated format/reinstall if it gets dirty, through whatever accident.
my concern is malicious hacking from the outside in, not picking up random worms or viruses, and moving to windows 7 isn't going to protect me from that.
i need to point something else out, though - this isn't your average windows xp machine, it's exceedingly stripped down to nearly nothing. i've ripped out almost everything, and that means that it's probably actually safer than running a stock seven, which has all kinds of goodies for bad guys to use.
what's going to actually happen if i pick up a worm is that it's going to error out because it can't find the system files it needs to operate and replicate.
https://www.vogons.org/viewtopic.php?t=68054
i'm very much like tricia - if i literally don't go anywhere except academic pages on youtube, there is an exceedingly low chance i'm going to run into a virus on this machine.
but, i keep my access speed very low for this reason, and the reality is that there's nothing on the machine - and i'm happy to run an automated format/reinstall if it gets dirty, through whatever accident.
my concern is malicious hacking from the outside in, not picking up random worms or viruses, and moving to windows 7 isn't going to protect me from that.
i need to point something else out, though - this isn't your average windows xp machine, it's exceedingly stripped down to nearly nothing. i've ripped out almost everything, and that means that it's probably actually safer than running a stock seven, which has all kinds of goodies for bad guys to use.
what's going to actually happen if i pick up a worm is that it's going to error out because it can't find the system files it needs to operate and replicate.
29 is better, but it's not actually working....
let's try 30, then.
and, yes: i'm being forced to download from shady places, because google won't offer secure downloads. clearly, they're not actually concerned about security, if they're forcing people with old machines to go to shady sites, are they?
let's try 30, then.
and, yes: i'm being forced to download from shady places, because google won't offer secure downloads. clearly, they're not actually concerned about security, if they're forcing people with old machines to go to shady sites, are they?
i guess the final workaround would have to be to move to a different site, like vimeo or dailymotion, but there's no guarantee that the encryption requirements are less advanced.
it does also seem as though there are more lightweight browsers for linux that are being more readily maintained.
if i could get a bit more ram in that laptop, i could probably upgrade it to vista, but that doesn't actually help me.
i'm not sure if the windows 7 setup disc would let me install to that machine, or if there might be a workaround in a version for "developing markets".
fuck, i just don't want to put a working machine in the landfill. this is stupid...
it does also seem as though there are more lightweight browsers for linux that are being more readily maintained.
if i could get a bit more ram in that laptop, i could probably upgrade it to vista, but that doesn't actually help me.
i'm not sure if the windows 7 setup disc would let me install to that machine, or if there might be a workaround in a version for "developing markets".
fuck, i just don't want to put a working machine in the landfill. this is stupid...
some of youtube is even using tls 1.3, apparently, which was enabled in chrome 70.
the last version with xp support is 49.
but, if i'm getting blocked due to not having tls 1.3, then firefox 52 would have to have tls 1.3, too, and that's certainly untrue.
it does, however, have tls 1.2.
i think that should be the end fix, but let's find out.
i'm really bad at letting things go.
surely, somebody is still supporting xp?
k-meleon? no. but, i tried the last available version from 2015 anyways, and it wouldn't load the codec. i don't know why, but i'm not the only person with the problem.
if there's a good html5-ready firefox fork that still supports xp, i can't find it.
i think the problem i was having with chrome was that the early versions didn't have tls 1.2. that clicks in with v 29. so, let's give that a run.
surely, somebody is still supporting xp?
k-meleon? no. but, i tried the last available version from 2015 anyways, and it wouldn't load the codec. i don't know why, but i'm not the only person with the problem.
if there's a good html5-ready firefox fork that still supports xp, i can't find it.
i think the problem i was having with chrome was that the early versions didn't have tls 1.2. that clicks in with v 29. so, let's give that a run.
i mean, what is the basis of our prosperity, in the first place?
if we were a poor country, how would our oldest and weakest fare?
so, let's try to think a little bit more clearly than setting up a false dichotomy between public health and the economy. leftists are supposed to think in dialectics. we can, should and must do better than a dumb argument like that.
if we were a poor country, how would our oldest and weakest fare?
so, let's try to think a little bit more clearly than setting up a false dichotomy between public health and the economy. leftists are supposed to think in dialectics. we can, should and must do better than a dumb argument like that.
did stalin starve the ukrainians on purpose? he starved some of them. the fact that stalin was a caucasian aside, there is no ethnic difference between a russian, a pole and a ukrainian, and trying to argue for a russian genocide targeted at ukranians is hard to properly define.
the reality is that, as a geopolitical entity and nation-state, ukraine didn't really exist yet, at the time. it was just southern russia. the concept of the holodomar is consequently rooted in a historical anachronism.
it is true that there was a lot of opposition to stalin in the southern regions of russia, and he does appear to have taken advantage of the famine, which was indeed brought on by his policies. that is a different idea, though, than claiming that he planned it all out from the start, like hitler did the holocaust - this wasn't something that was mapped out years earlier, and ukrainians were not specifically targeted due to their...i don't want to even use the word ethnicity. they have the same religion, even. their dialect? what identifiable characteristic do you even base the claim of difference on?
it would be like white new englanders carrying out a genocide against white southerners. you couldn't even figure out who was who, if it wasn't for the different accents.
rather, i think that obfuscating the primary point of history here, which was that the forced collectivization fucked up the farming industry, is rather unhelpful in understanding what actually happened.
and, there remain lessons here about what happens when you shut down the economy too fast, in the wrong way - millions of people starve to death.
the reality is that, as a geopolitical entity and nation-state, ukraine didn't really exist yet, at the time. it was just southern russia. the concept of the holodomar is consequently rooted in a historical anachronism.
it is true that there was a lot of opposition to stalin in the southern regions of russia, and he does appear to have taken advantage of the famine, which was indeed brought on by his policies. that is a different idea, though, than claiming that he planned it all out from the start, like hitler did the holocaust - this wasn't something that was mapped out years earlier, and ukrainians were not specifically targeted due to their...i don't want to even use the word ethnicity. they have the same religion, even. their dialect? what identifiable characteristic do you even base the claim of difference on?
it would be like white new englanders carrying out a genocide against white southerners. you couldn't even figure out who was who, if it wasn't for the different accents.
rather, i think that obfuscating the primary point of history here, which was that the forced collectivization fucked up the farming industry, is rather unhelpful in understanding what actually happened.
and, there remain lessons here about what happens when you shut down the economy too fast, in the wrong way - millions of people starve to death.
"when they came for the potatoes, you said nothing."
ok, ok - and, you know, this isn't trivial, because the kind of mismanagement we're dealing with in canada right now does have serious consequences.
our government is acting like an authoritarian state, right now. there's a history of famine resulting from states that act in this manner.
so, i want you to ask the question - do you not think your health is reliant on the economy? do you really think these are separable ideas?
ok, ok - and, you know, this isn't trivial, because the kind of mismanagement we're dealing with in canada right now does have serious consequences.
our government is acting like an authoritarian state, right now. there's a history of famine resulting from states that act in this manner.
so, i want you to ask the question - do you not think your health is reliant on the economy? do you really think these are separable ideas?
the streaming option is preferable on an older machine like this, but youtube doesn't want you to do it (for obvious reasons.), so you have to play cat and mouse with them, and nothing's supported anymore.
i don't see any other conclusion to draw - the next time this happens, i'm going to have to move to linux.
for now, the esr version of firefox works, and i'm going to have to suffer through the scripting errors.
ok.
so, i'm going to eat and move on.
Sunday, April 26, 2020
i'm just thinking back, and i don't think i've ever bought potatoes at a grocery store.
i don't think i've bought a package of pre-cut french fries in upwards of fifteen years.
on the rare occasions that i'll buy a burger at a restaurant, i essentially never get fries.
i'd guess i might buy at most a poutine once a year, and over the last ten or so it's certainly been less frequent than that.
i'm more likely to get hash browns with a breakfast special. and, i guess i might get a small fry from time to time if i'm waiting somewhere.
but, in sum, i've probably had less than a bag of potatoes, in total, over the last 20 years.
i don't think i've bought a package of pre-cut french fries in upwards of fifteen years.
on the rare occasions that i'll buy a burger at a restaurant, i essentially never get fries.
i'd guess i might buy at most a poutine once a year, and over the last ten or so it's certainly been less frequent than that.
i'm more likely to get hash browns with a breakfast special. and, i guess i might get a small fry from time to time if i'm waiting somewhere.
but, in sum, i've probably had less than a bag of potatoes, in total, over the last 20 years.
potatoes really aren't very good for you.
so, i don't really have a lot of sympathy, here. we'd be better off if the demand for this product crashed permanently.
why don't they shift to growing more nutritious fruit and vegetables, instead?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6870689/coronavirus-canada-food-supply/
so, i don't really have a lot of sympathy, here. we'd be better off if the demand for this product crashed permanently.
why don't they shift to growing more nutritious fruit and vegetables, instead?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6870689/coronavirus-canada-food-supply/
what this means is that standing two metres from each other at the grocery store is completely pointless.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
so, smplayer seems to run fine on xp, but in order to stream from youtube, i'd need to replace mplayer with mpv, and the latter will no longer work with xp.
so, i'm basically doing the same thing with this that i was with chrome, except that i'm less confident in this working, because i suspect youtube has already banned it.
ugh.
i'm going to try it, at least...
i'm going to try it, at least...
i'm not going to adjudicate this decision from a distance without the facts.
but, i will point out that approaching the issue case-by-case is far preferable in a free society - and that a few bad apples shouldn't be allowed to ruin the situation for everybody.
i would suspect that this is probably symbolic. i don't know...
i know i'd prefer to have not seen it happen, but i don't know the facts.
i know i'd prefer to have not seen it happen, but i don't know the facts.
this appears to be happening in new york as well, where herd immunity in new york city is being offset (or distorted) by a rising problem in buffalo. i pointed this out looking at the italian numbers - you need to be sure that you're looking at the data in a granular enough manner, to ensure you're not misinterpreting the interference patterns.
this is going to be an expected feature of this, as things develop - very localized waves, at the city or even neighbourhood level, rather than broad waves at the state, provincial or national level.
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-surges-grand-rapids-area-bucking-trends-rest-michigan
this is going to be an expected feature of this, as things develop - very localized waves, at the city or even neighbourhood level, rather than broad waves at the state, provincial or national level.
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-surges-grand-rapids-area-bucking-trends-rest-michigan
but, again - if your body doesn't remember the antibodies when you meet this thing in the wild, it won't remember them when you get a vaccine, either.
i keep asking the question: what's really going on?
and, the incredible levels of stupidity and ignorance coming from these bodies is strongly suggestive of what was an early hypothesis: man made or not, it seems like big pharma is driving the response to this.
you're going to be immunized at great profit margins, whether you need it or not.
i keep asking the question: what's really going on?
and, the incredible levels of stupidity and ignorance coming from these bodies is strongly suggestive of what was an early hypothesis: man made or not, it seems like big pharma is driving the response to this.
you're going to be immunized at great profit margins, whether you need it or not.
the choice that we have is between dragging the process out and maximizing exposure to the weak or hurrying it up and minimizing exposure to them.
i don't need to be an epidemiologist to tell you that there's a 100% chance that we'll get to widespread immunity before a commercially available vaccine is ready, regardless of what we do.
i don't need to be an epidemiologist to tell you that there's a 100% chance that we'll get to widespread immunity before a commercially available vaccine is ready, regardless of what we do.
we don't have a choice between getting to immunity and waiting for a vaccine - you can't stop an airborne virus with a half-ass quarantine.
we're already most of the way there, despite our best efforts.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-25/could-a-controlled-avalanche-stop-the-coronavirus-faster-and-with-fewer-death
we're already most of the way there, despite our best efforts.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-25/could-a-controlled-avalanche-stop-the-coronavirus-faster-and-with-fewer-death
so, it seems like this post:
when is the ndp going to get rid of jagmeet singh and put a serious leadership candidate in place, already?
(https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2020/04/blog-post_13.html)
disappeared.
and then reappeared inside of the previous post:
as horribly ignorant as justin trudeau is, we don't need a return to conservative stupidity in this country.
what the fuck?
i've been clear with you, google - i do not tolerate deleted posts. and, i don't want you fucking with my writing.
so, fuck off.
when is the ndp going to get rid of jagmeet singh and put a serious leadership candidate in place, already?
(https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2020/04/blog-post_13.html)
disappeared.
and then reappeared inside of the previous post:
as horribly ignorant as justin trudeau is, we don't need a return to conservative stupidity in this country.
what the fuck?
i've been clear with you, google - i do not tolerate deleted posts. and, i don't want you fucking with my writing.
so, fuck off.
so, his concern is that it's disincentivizing people from working.
why is pierre poutine even being interpreted as a serious candidate?
the guy should be in jail.
lock him the fuck up.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6870332/coronavirus-freakonomics-conservative/
why is pierre poutine even being interpreted as a serious candidate?
the guy should be in jail.
lock him the fuck up.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6870332/coronavirus-freakonomics-conservative/
i would imagine that youtube doesn't want you doing this.
but, this is likely to become more widespread than less so, so long as google insists on blocking such a wide variety of devices from the site.
it would be a lot easier if i could use a browser - but they won't let me.
i don't even run adblock on that machine because 99% of the videos i watch don't even monetize.
but, this is likely to become more widespread than less so, so long as google insists on blocking such a wide variety of devices from the site.
it would be a lot easier if i could use a browser - but they won't let me.
i don't even run adblock on that machine because 99% of the videos i watch don't even monetize.
iirc, the problem i was having was with playlists, specifically. at the time, i had this giant playlist i was running through, and it just wouldn't stream right.
i'm not actually doing that, anymore; what i was doing when i switched over was watching all of the stanford videos since the beginning, in order.
so, for now, at least, i wonder if i could just try it again in the version of vlc in the image from 2009...
i'm not actually doing that, anymore; what i was doing when i switched over was watching all of the stanford videos since the beginning, in order.
so, for now, at least, i wonder if i could just try it again in the version of vlc in the image from 2009...
i had something called a tv card for a while in the 90s, which literally let me watch tv on my computer. this wasn't streaming internet - i plugged the cable line into my video card.
it worked flawlessly for years on a pIII with windows 98 and 64 mb of ram, which was a high-end machine at the time.
but, i can't event connect to youtube with a laptop that has a processor that is twice as fast and 4x as much ram?
it's ridiculous...
it worked flawlessly for years on a pIII with windows 98 and 64 mb of ram, which was a high-end machine at the time.
but, i can't event connect to youtube with a laptop that has a processor that is twice as fast and 4x as much ram?
it's ridiculous...
and, why don't i use netflix?
i wouldn't even want to watch anything on netflix. that's not about technology, and it's not about price, it's actually about what i'd want to watch vs what i wouldn't.
youtube has university lectures and independent documentaries and whatnot, and that's far more interesting to me than movies or tv shows. the fact that it's free is a bonus, sure, but the reality is that if you gave me an unlimited netflix account for free then i'd probably never use it - i'd rather watch youtube, anyways.
i wouldn't even want to watch anything on netflix. that's not about technology, and it's not about price, it's actually about what i'd want to watch vs what i wouldn't.
youtube has university lectures and independent documentaries and whatnot, and that's far more interesting to me than movies or tv shows. the fact that it's free is a bonus, sure, but the reality is that if you gave me an unlimited netflix account for free then i'd probably never use it - i'd rather watch youtube, anyways.
this shouldn't be this complicated, really.
my concern is not safety, or security - it's making the best use of perfectly good aging equipment, while minimizing the environmental effects of consumerism.
the laptop works perfectly fine. it's a pentium grade computer, with hundreds of megabytes of ram. compared to the devices that sent neil armstrong to the moon, this thing is a super computer.
but, i can't connect to youtube with it?
that's absurd.
my concern is not safety, or security - it's making the best use of perfectly good aging equipment, while minimizing the environmental effects of consumerism.
the laptop works perfectly fine. it's a pentium grade computer, with hundreds of megabytes of ram. compared to the devices that sent neil armstrong to the moon, this thing is a super computer.
but, i can't connect to youtube with it?
that's absurd.
why don't i just use the chromebook?
the chromebook is in my bedroom, which is where it's going to need to be until i can build an image for the main laptop. i don't think there's anything wrong with the battery, but the operating system won't read it. so, the device is no longer mobile - it's in my bedroom, and it's plugged in.
i don't have any desire to buy a new battery, and i don't have time to learn how to reprogram the chip. buying laptop batteries is one of the worst things you can do for the environment. so, it's probably not going to have a battery for...for years, really. it may never get fixed...or, i may need to wait until google decides i can't use it anymore, and i have to flash the chip to turn it on, anyways.
this device was purchased for mobile use. i log in as a guest account, and i'll be turning it off as soon as everything else works properly, again.
i fundamentally dislike the chrome os, and i actually wish i'd have bought something else.
so, i've been eating in bed over the last few months as everything else has been broken or disabled, and am trying to stop doing it. that's the point of what i'm trying to do.
what i'd have to do is turn the machine off and move it into the kitchen every time i eat, which means i couldn't pause the lecture halfway through, which is what i'm trying to facilitate.
so, there's basically no way to use this device for that purpose at this time - and it's not what i want to use it for, anyways.
the chromebook is in my bedroom, which is where it's going to need to be until i can build an image for the main laptop. i don't think there's anything wrong with the battery, but the operating system won't read it. so, the device is no longer mobile - it's in my bedroom, and it's plugged in.
i don't have any desire to buy a new battery, and i don't have time to learn how to reprogram the chip. buying laptop batteries is one of the worst things you can do for the environment. so, it's probably not going to have a battery for...for years, really. it may never get fixed...or, i may need to wait until google decides i can't use it anymore, and i have to flash the chip to turn it on, anyways.
this device was purchased for mobile use. i log in as a guest account, and i'll be turning it off as soon as everything else works properly, again.
i fundamentally dislike the chrome os, and i actually wish i'd have bought something else.
so, i've been eating in bed over the last few months as everything else has been broken or disabled, and am trying to stop doing it. that's the point of what i'm trying to do.
what i'd have to do is turn the machine off and move it into the kitchen every time i eat, which means i couldn't pause the lecture halfway through, which is what i'm trying to facilitate.
so, there's basically no way to use this device for that purpose at this time - and it's not what i want to use it for, anyways.
i don't even really understand why chrome would need to use encryption to go to youtube.
what is being encrypted, exactly?
i'm just watching lectures at stanford. i don't care if hackers steal the information, so long as they don't slow down the stream. but, i'd suggest that it would be faster if they'd just go there, themselves.
i'm going to end up moving to linux....
what is being encrypted, exactly?
i'm just watching lectures at stanford. i don't care if hackers steal the information, so long as they don't slow down the stream. but, i'd suggest that it would be faster if they'd just go there, themselves.
i'm going to end up moving to linux....
so, i woke up and googled coronavirus like i have every day for however long, now and realized something...
i don't even care anymore.
just let me know when it's over.
i started updating chrome sequentially from 4 upwards and ended up blocked from accessing youtube by the server. i'm not sure what to do next if that's not temporary.
but, i'm very close to refocusing and it's what i really want to be doing, right now.
i'm going to need to make some calls early in the morning. right now, i want to find an acceptable solution with the 90s laptop and get to work on finishing that master document for 01/14.
i don't even care anymore.
just let me know when it's over.
i started updating chrome sequentially from 4 upwards and ended up blocked from accessing youtube by the server. i'm not sure what to do next if that's not temporary.
but, i'm very close to refocusing and it's what i really want to be doing, right now.
i'm going to need to make some calls early in the morning. right now, i want to find an acceptable solution with the 90s laptop and get to work on finishing that master document for 01/14.
this really ought to be taxable, if the government is treating them as a business (which is what they actually are.)
https://globalnews.ca/news/6869703/coronavirus-wage-subsidy-parishes/
https://globalnews.ca/news/6869703/coronavirus-wage-subsidy-parishes/
firefox 28 loads well on the 90s laptop, but youtube won't default to the webm codec, so the minimal version i have to run to get to youtube is firefox 46. with versions of 46 or higher, the html5 video works, but the javascript constantly hangs, which is probably a processor issue, rather than a ram issue.
it's still at 256 mb. i should look into ordering something from ebay, which is probably both my best and only option with a laptop that old. it's probably going to cost something like $20 for 1 gb of ram. but, i might also even have some of the right kind of ram, too. i don't even know...
the comodo fork seems to be trying to access a lot of system files that i've purposefully removed, which is worrying me a little. these look like ie files. so, i'm going to back away from this.
i'm going to try chrome again, after i check to optimize for the best version.
i just want to address a point i'm making about forcing migrants to come in the front door.
am i not denying the hardships that they're going through? well, i'm directing them to the proper application process, i'm not denying them offhand. so, your argument essentially reduces to urgency, and, yes, i am going to push back against that, because everybody's situation is urgent in their own way, and to decide that your own situation is more urgent than everybody else's without consulting anybody or leaving it up to analysis is actually pretty selfish, isn't it?
we've got thousands of people sleeping on the streets here. are their situations not urgent?
so, what gives you the self-importance and flat out gall, really, to show up here uninvited and demand that your issues are prioritized?
queues suck, but they're real. i would support prioritization, at some level - but, as the sovereign nation, that decision needs to be in our own hands, and not decided by the people seeking refuge.
my understanding is that a lot of people get here and are shocked to come face to face with the homeless population; they don't expect that - they expect a disney reality, with gold-paved streets and free money raining down from the skies. and, that's partly our own fault for mismarketing ourselves, going back a very long time.
equality runs in every direction.
am i not denying the hardships that they're going through? well, i'm directing them to the proper application process, i'm not denying them offhand. so, your argument essentially reduces to urgency, and, yes, i am going to push back against that, because everybody's situation is urgent in their own way, and to decide that your own situation is more urgent than everybody else's without consulting anybody or leaving it up to analysis is actually pretty selfish, isn't it?
we've got thousands of people sleeping on the streets here. are their situations not urgent?
so, what gives you the self-importance and flat out gall, really, to show up here uninvited and demand that your issues are prioritized?
queues suck, but they're real. i would support prioritization, at some level - but, as the sovereign nation, that decision needs to be in our own hands, and not decided by the people seeking refuge.
my understanding is that a lot of people get here and are shocked to come face to face with the homeless population; they don't expect that - they expect a disney reality, with gold-paved streets and free money raining down from the skies. and, that's partly our own fault for mismarketing ourselves, going back a very long time.
equality runs in every direction.
why would they re-open the salons first, of all things?
this reliance on other people for basic hygiene seems to be strangely widespread in the united states.
i wonder if it's ultimately a legacy of slavery, because i don't think people anywhere else in the world put that kind of importance on paying other people to groom them.
whatever you think of all of this nonsense, you'd think that something as frivolous and intimate as a salon would be the first thing to close and the last thing to re-open - if not based on the science, then at least based on importance.
this reliance on other people for basic hygiene seems to be strangely widespread in the united states.
i wonder if it's ultimately a legacy of slavery, because i don't think people anywhere else in the world put that kind of importance on paying other people to groom them.
whatever you think of all of this nonsense, you'd think that something as frivolous and intimate as a salon would be the first thing to close and the last thing to re-open - if not based on the science, then at least based on importance.
Saturday, April 25, 2020
the comodo setup wouldn't load.
i was able to get the thing to run using an esr version of firefox 52, so i at least know i'm not missing files. but, even that is painfully slow....
i'm going to actually eat, because it's just been too long. but, i should be able to optimize it better than that afterwards.
i was able to get the thing to run using an esr version of firefox 52, so i at least know i'm not missing files. but, even that is painfully slow....
i'm going to actually eat, because it's just been too long. but, i should be able to optimize it better than that afterwards.
ok.
i'm caught up.
completely.
finally....
i need to reimage the 90s laptop again before i eat and shower, as i've been having difficulty finding the right combination of software. the reason i moved to the laptop in the first place was that the processor on the 90s pc (the one that shipped with windows 98....) couldn't load a modern browser, and thus couldn't get native html5 support. it consequently couldn't access youtube.
the workaround i found was with chrome & xp, but i thought i had saved the setup files for chrome, and apparently had not. i don't know what version it was. the versions i've tried haven't worked. worse, i don't remember what image i was using. i should have taken better notes.
what i want is just a front end for youtube; it really doesn't need to do anything else.
so, i should at least start with the most primitive versions of chrome, firefox and opera that will run html5 video natively.
i'd really rather find something even lighter, though. and, i'm toying with a minimal linux distro, if none of that works.
i'm caught up.
completely.
finally....
i need to reimage the 90s laptop again before i eat and shower, as i've been having difficulty finding the right combination of software. the reason i moved to the laptop in the first place was that the processor on the 90s pc (the one that shipped with windows 98....) couldn't load a modern browser, and thus couldn't get native html5 support. it consequently couldn't access youtube.
the workaround i found was with chrome & xp, but i thought i had saved the setup files for chrome, and apparently had not. i don't know what version it was. the versions i've tried haven't worked. worse, i don't remember what image i was using. i should have taken better notes.
what i want is just a front end for youtube; it really doesn't need to do anything else.
so, i should at least start with the most primitive versions of chrome, firefox and opera that will run html5 video natively.
i'd really rather find something even lighter, though. and, i'm toying with a minimal linux distro, if none of that works.
i bet the 0.5% of people that twitter represents will have some mean things to say about the beachgoers in california today, as well - who are vastly representative of the dominant majority.
and, our out of touch political leaders that pathetically live vicariously through their phones won't get the point. at all. they'll just snicker...
whatever.
can we have an election asap, please?
where? everywhere...
and, our out of touch political leaders that pathetically live vicariously through their phones won't get the point. at all. they'll just snicker...
whatever.
can we have an election asap, please?
where? everywhere...
the virus is said to live in your upper respiratory tract. so, supplementing your water with bleach is unlikely to be helpful, because it's unlikely to come into contact with it - you're just going to end up with bleach in your stomach, which might increase your likelihood of ulcers.
but, what if you could find a way to kind of gargle the bleach through your nose?
if you doused this contraption in a low-level bleach solution, it would probably be more useful than meditation, at least.
but, what if you could find a way to kind of gargle the bleach through your nose?
if you doused this contraption in a low-level bleach solution, it would probably be more useful than meditation, at least.
broadly speaking, the recommendation to put bleach in water is to protect against water-borne illnesses - parasites and bacteria, mostly. hepatitis and polio are also known to spread through water, although the water is just a medium for the real vector, which is......shit. well, we still dump it in the river in a lot of places...
if you think there's polio in your water, i'd say you should find a different source of water. if you can't? well, that's what the rec is for.
is there any reason to think that something like this would be useful for covid-19?
well, we've found it in feces, indicating it is potentially in the water supply in some places. but, you'd think that the things we're doing to get rid of other viruses would be largely useful for this one, too. and, what do we do to our water at the purification plant?
the answer is that we basically bleach it.
if you think there's polio in your water, i'd say you should find a different source of water. if you can't? well, that's what the rec is for.
is there any reason to think that something like this would be useful for covid-19?
well, we've found it in feces, indicating it is potentially in the water supply in some places. but, you'd think that the things we're doing to get rid of other viruses would be largely useful for this one, too. and, what do we do to our water at the purification plant?
the answer is that we basically bleach it.
drinking bleach is actually recommended in some scenarios....
https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/pdf/emergency/09_202278-B_Make_Water_Safe_Flyer_508.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/pdf/emergency/09_202278-B_Make_Water_Safe_Flyer_508.pdf
i repeat: if we discover that this virus is unlike any other virus and that natural immunity won't protect against it, then that actually proves that a vaccine is also impossible, because that's what a vaccine does - it stimulates your body into producing protective antibodies.
if that's actually true, then we're fucked and we'd might as well reopen tomorrow.
do you understand that?
if that's actually true, then we're fucked and we'd might as well reopen tomorrow.
do you understand that?
you'd also want to note the following - while we have been unable to create vaccines for some viruses like aids/hiv, if natural immunity does not exist for this virus then we can't find a vaccine.
so, you have to understand that arguing that we need to wait for a vaccine because we can't rely on immunity is a distressingly ignorant and stupid position, despite being the one that the prime minister and his office appear to be taking.
if we can't build immunity, we can't get a vaccine either. it's the same fucking thing...
so, you have to understand that arguing that we need to wait for a vaccine because we can't rely on immunity is a distressingly ignorant and stupid position, despite being the one that the prime minister and his office appear to be taking.
if we can't build immunity, we can't get a vaccine either. it's the same fucking thing...
i'm going to flip the issue over.
if you could somehow demonstrate that antibodies don't produce immunity for this virus, you would be presenting exceedingly strong evidence that it's bioengineered - because every other virus, ever, leaves us with immunity in the presence of antibodies.
you'd probably have to stop calling it a virus - it would be something else, entirely.
if you could somehow demonstrate that antibodies don't produce immunity for this virus, you would be presenting exceedingly strong evidence that it's bioengineered - because every other virus, ever, leaves us with immunity in the presence of antibodies.
you'd probably have to stop calling it a virus - it would be something else, entirely.
the frustrating thing is that we had good planning documents here, and they were following them, initially.
but, at some point, twitter became a better source of information to the people that are making decisions than the existing white papers, based on peer-reviewed science.
now, we're all suffering for it.
but, at some point, twitter became a better source of information to the people that are making decisions than the existing white papers, based on peer-reviewed science.
now, we're all suffering for it.
that's what they're basing their concept of public opinion on: twitter feeds.
it's why we're in such a ridiculous situation, where we've lost every meaningful freedom we had in order to chase policies that no educated person thought would be effective, have utterly failed and are failing more and more every day.
it's why we're in such a ridiculous situation, where we've lost every meaningful freedom we had in order to chase policies that no educated person thought would be effective, have utterly failed and are failing more and more every day.
how long is this going to go on for?
we're going to have to get out on the streets, clearly.
right now, the government seems to think we want to stay inside.
we'll need to demonstrate otherwise with a show of force; otherwise, we're waiting two-three years for a vaccine. that's their messaging, right now - not weeks, not months but years.
we're going to have to get out on the streets, clearly.
right now, the government seems to think we want to stay inside.
we'll need to demonstrate otherwise with a show of force; otherwise, we're waiting two-three years for a vaccine. that's their messaging, right now - not weeks, not months but years.
testing to ensure that you can't get reinfected by a virus you have antibodies for is not "being cautious".
it is foolishly reinventing the wheel - and either driven by ignorance or stupidity.
perhaps it is true that we don't have studies to back the claim up directly, but this is a situation where this is such basic science that it isn't necessary. we know that. it's not a high risk deduction.
what we need to be concerned about is if the virus is mutating or not, not whether or not we can be "reinfected", which is an incoherent concept.
it is foolishly reinventing the wheel - and either driven by ignorance or stupidity.
perhaps it is true that we don't have studies to back the claim up directly, but this is a situation where this is such basic science that it isn't necessary. we know that. it's not a high risk deduction.
what we need to be concerned about is if the virus is mutating or not, not whether or not we can be "reinfected", which is an incoherent concept.
it's too bad he didn't get so angry that he had a heart attack.
again: i'd rather see people just move on. stop protesting, and just do it...
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/a-bunch-of-yahoos-ford-says-of-people-protesting-covid-19-emergency-measures-1.4911861
again: i'd rather see people just move on. stop protesting, and just do it...
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/a-bunch-of-yahoos-ford-says-of-people-protesting-covid-19-emergency-measures-1.4911861
“But it’s very clear that the science is not decided on whether or not having COVID once prevents you from getting it again… it is something that we need to get clearer answers to and until we have those clear answers, we have to err on the side of more caution.” - justin trudeau
ugh.
this guy is an ignorant fucking idiot....
ugh.
this guy is an ignorant fucking idiot....
see, i'm an anarchist - i like voluntarism.
but, it comes with a concept of personal responsibility, absolutely.
the fact that your health is your own individual responsibility means you also have an obligation to avoid the vulnerable if you're a potential carrier. it's actually the latter issue that we seem to be getting wrong here, but i wonder how much of it is due to widespread misplaced faith in authority.
if our governments had given us more personal responsibility in dealing with this, would we have risen to the challenge? as an anarchist, that's what i'd like to see - and it's encouraging to see the swedes deliver.
we always say this, right. the social revolution must come first. perhaps it's already begun in scandinavia....
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x
but, it comes with a concept of personal responsibility, absolutely.
the fact that your health is your own individual responsibility means you also have an obligation to avoid the vulnerable if you're a potential carrier. it's actually the latter issue that we seem to be getting wrong here, but i wonder how much of it is due to widespread misplaced faith in authority.
if our governments had given us more personal responsibility in dealing with this, would we have risen to the challenge? as an anarchist, that's what i'd like to see - and it's encouraging to see the swedes deliver.
we always say this, right. the social revolution must come first. perhaps it's already begun in scandinavia....
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x
this was entirely predictable, too.
hey - i'm consistent. i want to be more like sweden all of the time.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866
hey - i'm consistent. i want to be more like sweden all of the time.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866
at this stage in history, the proper evolution is from a prison-industrial complex to a system of mechanized labour. that's what abolition means, now - past the agrarian era of free markets, and past the industrial area of socialization in production.
we are post-industrial.
we should start acting like it.
we are post-industrial.
we should start acting like it.
i also want to clarify the realities in the united states around the issue, as the debate largely exists in the realm of fantasy. both sides of the debate in the united states are utterly delusional, with democrats pretending that they're dealing with people fleeing violence that need sanctuary, and republicans pretending that they're dealing with rapists and drug dealers.
what exists in the united states is a prison-industrial complex. chomsky has a daughter, and she wrote the book on this.
the jails acts as intake systems for influxes of cheap labour, which end up distributed to participating property owners. the state is a human resources department. and, the status quo continues because the system wants it to continue - because it benefits capital, at the expense of labour.
so, you end up with democrats that want to make the system a little more humane, and republicans that don't care - it's the choice between what is presented as the enlightened capitalists, and what is presented as the evil bastards.
but, i'm not in solidarity with capitalists that want to make the system a little bit better while essentially keeping it in place.
no.
i want to abolish this system altogether - and that means going after the real criminals, which are the corporations driving the abuses.
what exists in the united states is a prison-industrial complex. chomsky has a daughter, and she wrote the book on this.
the jails acts as intake systems for influxes of cheap labour, which end up distributed to participating property owners. the state is a human resources department. and, the status quo continues because the system wants it to continue - because it benefits capital, at the expense of labour.
so, you end up with democrats that want to make the system a little more humane, and republicans that don't care - it's the choice between what is presented as the enlightened capitalists, and what is presented as the evil bastards.
but, i'm not in solidarity with capitalists that want to make the system a little bit better while essentially keeping it in place.
no.
i want to abolish this system altogether - and that means going after the real criminals, which are the corporations driving the abuses.
as mentioned, in the long-run, i would support essentially erasing the borders of the nafta states to start, and then gradually erasing more and more borders as the class relationships absolve.
but, i do see the world in terms of class, and i know which class i stand with. so long as the rules in this country are erected so that migrant labour benefits the middle class at the expense of the working class in a way that is strictly exploitative, the state should be implementing rules to prevent that exploitation from occurring - which means criminalizing illegal border crossings, however nominally.
there should also be a strict crackdown on people that "sponsor" these refugees in order to exploit them. let's drop the bullshit - these people are buying and importing slaves. that should be ended immediately, and they should face steep punishments for it. it's the unscrupulous employers that really deserve stiff and lengthy jail sentences, not the imported workers.
the point is to incentivize proper entry procedures, and if the policy is successful then it will lead to lower crossings, not more people in jail.
but, there is nothing left-wing about supporting systems that exploit migrant labour - that is support for modern day slavery.
if you can't work that out, or you're too selfish to care, you should be ashamed of yourself.
but, i do see the world in terms of class, and i know which class i stand with. so long as the rules in this country are erected so that migrant labour benefits the middle class at the expense of the working class in a way that is strictly exploitative, the state should be implementing rules to prevent that exploitation from occurring - which means criminalizing illegal border crossings, however nominally.
there should also be a strict crackdown on people that "sponsor" these refugees in order to exploit them. let's drop the bullshit - these people are buying and importing slaves. that should be ended immediately, and they should face steep punishments for it. it's the unscrupulous employers that really deserve stiff and lengthy jail sentences, not the imported workers.
the point is to incentivize proper entry procedures, and if the policy is successful then it will lead to lower crossings, not more people in jail.
but, there is nothing left-wing about supporting systems that exploit migrant labour - that is support for modern day slavery.
if you can't work that out, or you're too selfish to care, you should be ashamed of yourself.
so, what is my proposal for dealing with illegal immigration?
1) try them for it.
2) send them to jail for a few months for breaking the law. these should not be lengthy sentences, and in most cases will reduce to time already served.
3) give them a criminal record for entering the country illegally.
4) release them, without deporting them.
they will leave on their own relatively quickly, when they realize they can't get jobs with a criminal record. and, this should incentivize refugees to go through the process properly.
1) try them for it.
2) send them to jail for a few months for breaking the law. these should not be lengthy sentences, and in most cases will reduce to time already served.
3) give them a criminal record for entering the country illegally.
4) release them, without deporting them.
they will leave on their own relatively quickly, when they realize they can't get jobs with a criminal record. and, this should incentivize refugees to go through the process properly.
i actually don't expect that the science would uphold the premise that being held in a jail increases the risk of contracting the disease if the alternative is living in a shelter. if anything, you're at least sitting in one place, so your access to random people is restricted.
rather, i would expect that they would have better access to health care inside of the facilities than outside of it, as canada's coverage for refugees is patchy and uneven (and, i think should be). some of these people may end up denied access to health care altogether, as soon as they end up released. but, anybody that is incarcerated in this country should (at least in theory) get proper health care on demand.
i don't tend to support deporting people, but i would argue that crossing borders illegally should result in a criminal record and a period of detention, because it is in fact a crime in this country to do so. it's a kind of compromise that i think addresses the issue properly - if you can find a way in, then you can stay, but you should have a criminal record for breaking the rules in doing so.
refugee applicants that wish to avoid criminal records should enter the country through official ports of entry, as is directed by international law. or, those would be the rules under my direction, anyways...
arguments to look the other way at illegal labour stand in solidarity with the middle class that benefits from the exploitation of refugee labour and not with the working class, which ends up harmed by it.
so, again - say what you will of this, but this isn't evidence-based. and, it will no doubt just increase strains on the social system, potentially making the problem worse in the shelters, where the chances of spread are likely far higher than they are in jails.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6861756/canada-releasing-immigration-detainees-coronavirus-covid-19/
rather, i would expect that they would have better access to health care inside of the facilities than outside of it, as canada's coverage for refugees is patchy and uneven (and, i think should be). some of these people may end up denied access to health care altogether, as soon as they end up released. but, anybody that is incarcerated in this country should (at least in theory) get proper health care on demand.
i don't tend to support deporting people, but i would argue that crossing borders illegally should result in a criminal record and a period of detention, because it is in fact a crime in this country to do so. it's a kind of compromise that i think addresses the issue properly - if you can find a way in, then you can stay, but you should have a criminal record for breaking the rules in doing so.
refugee applicants that wish to avoid criminal records should enter the country through official ports of entry, as is directed by international law. or, those would be the rules under my direction, anyways...
arguments to look the other way at illegal labour stand in solidarity with the middle class that benefits from the exploitation of refugee labour and not with the working class, which ends up harmed by it.
so, again - say what you will of this, but this isn't evidence-based. and, it will no doubt just increase strains on the social system, potentially making the problem worse in the shelters, where the chances of spread are likely far higher than they are in jails.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6861756/canada-releasing-immigration-detainees-coronavirus-covid-19/
and, this is a subsequent survey on the efficacy of travel restrictions after covid-19 began spreading, which upholds the point made by the earlier epistemological modeling.
again: this is not controversial research.
https://www.cato.org/blog/travel-restrictions-spread-covid-19-what-does-research-say
again: this is not controversial research.
https://www.cato.org/blog/travel-restrictions-spread-covid-19-what-does-research-say
the border is not closed to stop the spread of the virus.
the border is closed because our politicians have decided that closing the border is popular, and leaving it open would create uprisings, or otherwise open up an electoral vulnerability.
it's a political decision, it's not a public health policy.
the border is closed because our politicians have decided that closing the border is popular, and leaving it open would create uprisings, or otherwise open up an electoral vulnerability.
it's a political decision, it's not a public health policy.
it's not often that i'll post a link to an article at the cato institute without ripping it apart. this is a survey of the existing literature, and is worth sorting through to realize just how stupid we're being right now.
they are mostly echoing points i've been making for weeks.
the fact that i am able to do this right now demonstrates how uncontroversial the point is. if there was any controversy around the topic at all, there's little question that i'd come down on the other side of the debate. but, there's certain things - like gravity - that i can agree with the cato institute on.
note that i said gravity and not something that has even the slightest bit of controversy, rightly or not. they wouldn't a post an article like this about climate change. and, i'm not sure you'd even get something from them upholding evolution.
why are our governments being so retarded about this?
because you're retarded, and they caved into your demands - it's a reflection of our own collective stupidity, our own mass ignorance.
the science was clear from the start: these borders should have stayed open through this entire process. but, you can't deal with that, and the government caved to your ignorance.
https://www.cato.org/blog/research-provides-no-basis-pandemic-travel-bans
they are mostly echoing points i've been making for weeks.
the fact that i am able to do this right now demonstrates how uncontroversial the point is. if there was any controversy around the topic at all, there's little question that i'd come down on the other side of the debate. but, there's certain things - like gravity - that i can agree with the cato institute on.
note that i said gravity and not something that has even the slightest bit of controversy, rightly or not. they wouldn't a post an article like this about climate change. and, i'm not sure you'd even get something from them upholding evolution.
why are our governments being so retarded about this?
because you're retarded, and they caved into your demands - it's a reflection of our own collective stupidity, our own mass ignorance.
the science was clear from the start: these borders should have stayed open through this entire process. but, you can't deal with that, and the government caved to your ignorance.
https://www.cato.org/blog/research-provides-no-basis-pandemic-travel-bans
so, these graphs where they normalize different cities or countries based on a number of days since the first known case, or since the first known death...
i wouldn't take them very seriously, in terms of actually comparing outcomes in different regions.
1) the decision to plot these graphs was taken back when we thought r-not was much smaller than we know it is now. we also thought the virus was much more deadly than we know it is now.
2) we now know that the virus was circulating in highly connected regions months before we really detected it, so the starting dates are very hard to pin with any accuracy.
3) as we've received more data about who the disease affects, the disparities have just become greater.
so, in city a, the first person that caught the disease might have come in contact with an elderly person within hours, and that elderly person may have died a fast and miserable death. if the first person is quickly isolated, that might be the end of that vector altogether.
on the other hand, the first person that caught the disease in city b may have flown in to the city to see a concert populated by teenagers, who then infected their relatively young and healthy parents. it could in theory take weeks or months for any sort of mortality to develop, and in the process you could see thousands or tens of thousands of cases.
these are extreme opposite scenarios, but it gets the point across - the metric is actually really not very standardized at all, and lining these curves up on top of each other based on it could very well lead to some very wrong conclusions about how the disease is spreading in any particular place.
you might be able to salvage the concept if you shift the alignment to a more advanced point in the curve, but it seems to me that this would mostly undo what people want to see, which is what's happening in early stages of transmission. really, this is a tool of analysis that should only be employed after the fact, and by lining the different cities up at their respective peaks. that would help us understand what already happened, but wouldn't help us predict the future.
a better idea to understand how the curve is growing is to dispense with the visual comparison and just rely on some basic calculus. after fitting the data to an equation, what is the derivative of that equation? how is the instantaneous rate of change evolving over time?
i wouldn't take them very seriously, in terms of actually comparing outcomes in different regions.
1) the decision to plot these graphs was taken back when we thought r-not was much smaller than we know it is now. we also thought the virus was much more deadly than we know it is now.
2) we now know that the virus was circulating in highly connected regions months before we really detected it, so the starting dates are very hard to pin with any accuracy.
3) as we've received more data about who the disease affects, the disparities have just become greater.
so, in city a, the first person that caught the disease might have come in contact with an elderly person within hours, and that elderly person may have died a fast and miserable death. if the first person is quickly isolated, that might be the end of that vector altogether.
on the other hand, the first person that caught the disease in city b may have flown in to the city to see a concert populated by teenagers, who then infected their relatively young and healthy parents. it could in theory take weeks or months for any sort of mortality to develop, and in the process you could see thousands or tens of thousands of cases.
these are extreme opposite scenarios, but it gets the point across - the metric is actually really not very standardized at all, and lining these curves up on top of each other based on it could very well lead to some very wrong conclusions about how the disease is spreading in any particular place.
you might be able to salvage the concept if you shift the alignment to a more advanced point in the curve, but it seems to me that this would mostly undo what people want to see, which is what's happening in early stages of transmission. really, this is a tool of analysis that should only be employed after the fact, and by lining the different cities up at their respective peaks. that would help us understand what already happened, but wouldn't help us predict the future.
a better idea to understand how the curve is growing is to dispense with the visual comparison and just rely on some basic calculus. after fitting the data to an equation, what is the derivative of that equation? how is the instantaneous rate of change evolving over time?
Friday, April 24, 2020
i understand that the graph isn't perfect.
but, the up and down nature of it (no plateau of sustained levels) is pretty strongly suggestive of the lockdown having almost no effect.
this is just one city, and i must concede that new york was often presented in the modeling as the worst case scenario, as what happens when you do nothing at all - despite the fact that they did in fact do quite a bit. so, if it turns out that the actions taken by statist authorities had little to no effect on the outcome in new york, that may actually have minimal forecasting effects for other cities, for the reason that they acted too late; we don't yet know whether the numbers we're seeing in new york are proof of the futility of acting against the virus, or just evidence that they were too slow to act. we'll need to see the numbers in other cities, first.
but, they're saying now that there were thousand of cases in new york as early as january, meaning it took months to actually ramp up like this. what that means is if you're a city like toronto which we think is weeks behind new york, and you're watching your numbers tick up from 30ish to 50ish, this graph should scare the hell out of you.
one thing that we appear to have learned from this week is that immunity was high enough in new york to prevent an easter spike, but wasn't in detroit. it seems like toronto isn't far enough along the curve to be able to even detect an easter spike, yet.
this could be a vicious week here, in eastern canada. and, i suspect it will be. so, despite confusing messages, it's more important to be careful in ontario if you're at high risk than ever before.
whatever the effects of the quarantine end up being here in the end, i hope that locking down too early doesn't have the effect of creating lockdown fatigue. but, if people don't understand the risk this causes the elderly at this point, will they ever?
right now, convincing examples of bent curves are almost non-existent - almost everywhere, we're seeing peaks and falls or slower ramp ups than initially thought. but, it will be this week and the next that the regions that locked down as early as possible will get to the point in the curve where you can start to really make more serious deductions.
i hope that the loss of life is minimal.
but, eastern canada should brace for the worst.
thankfully, it seems clear that we have.
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