Wednesday, March 23, 2016

j reacts to the mar 22 results

i didn't see the results start coming in, but let me guess: hillary started with 70% "initial results", and it's been coming down all night, right?

there's not enough caucus states. and all evidence suggests that they're going to respond to any push back by stuffing more.

it was over before it started. all you can do in response is refuse to vote for her, and hope a third-party appears with enough of a movement behind it to make a difference.

this is happening in state after state.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/22/live-arizona-primary-coverage-presidential-preference-election/82096726/

http://usuncut.com/news/arizona-polling-disaster/

i claimed bernie needed to be aiming for a 50+ haul tonight, which would have been a 70% floor over all. he did get close to 80% in both utah and idaho, but....arizona carried on the same pattern where clinton's lead in "initial results" was far too big to overcome with real votes. it's come down a lot over the night, as it did in other places. i will reiterate: i don't think clinton or the party is doing this for delegates (if you split a 45/55 result, it's not much of a delegate difference - although it does add up over 30 states if it consistently leans in the same direction) so much as i think it's about the tv coverage. hillary clinton is probably the country's last serious conventional media candidate. her base is not determined by skin colour or language or anything of the sort so much as it's determined by age. so, she's playing to the boomer and early xer tendency to watch the results on tv and go to bed. that's the real reason she's giving herself these insurmountable leads with supposed early voters - so that her base can go to bed seeing her ahead by 20--30 points, and conclude she's winning comfortably.

my math had him win washington 60-40 and pointed out a 70-30 win would give him some breathing room. after underperforming in arizona, he needs to be looking at something more like the 75-80% he just got in idaho and utah in order to just stay on path.

he has to win washington by a huge margin. it may be his last serious stand.