there seems to be a dip in cold air resulting from yearly decreases in sunlight in the north. it happened to hit bc. it might have gone in any direction depending on localized effects.
that has nothing to do with el nino. it's not an el nino forecast at all. it's a typical polar autumn effect, heading into polar night.
however, the fact that it did dip in bc is curious because the pacific is in fact quite warm. in an exceptional el nino year, you would expect the warmer air to at least slow the cold air down. the cold air ran right over it like it wasn't there at all. so much for el nino, huh?
his explanation, which is an attempt to explain away the mistake he made earlier, is just digging himself deeper into a hole. he should just backtrack and admit it but dipshits tend to be arrogant. he doesn't explain why el nino causes the jet stream to dip, or does he even try. he just admits that el nino wasn't powerful enough to block the spillage and suggests it might be later in the year.
well, ok. but it looks to me like it's probably already peaked. i wouldn't count on that.
it looks to me like the super el nino is just a fucking bust.
again, the issue is temperature differences, not absolute temperatures. a lot of people are missing this, not just this guy. the "super el nino" is a degree or two higher than normal. arctic amplification is running over 10 degrees. that means the change is running in the opposite direction and, despite the super el nino, the pacific is colder than average, in relative terms. did you understand that?
this is going to disrupt and overturn historical weather patterns so that you can no longer predict the weather by relying on old patterns. we call that climate change.
for now, he was right in the first place to point out that the lack of organization in the north is concerning. it suggests that the polar vortex is slowing down and may have difficulty forming, which is an expected eventual outcome of global warming.