haley stevens is on the ballot tomorrow as a representative of her district, which has a large jewish population. is it possible that she was actually trying to save her seat? does she have internal polling suggesting that the republicans are not just going to win her riding at the senate level but are going to flip her seat? if she does win the seat, could she hold it as an independent?

all of these things are entirely possible.

i'm not making a prediction as to the outcome of the house. it's not because i haven't looked at it, it's because i think it's too difficult to project. this is a very hard problem to solve; it's certainly not as easy as applying national polling over a curve. the models being deployed are very inaccurate. i will tell you that i think it's going to be close. 

it will be amusing if haley stevens does win and el-sayed doesn't, and if the democrats then need haley stevens' vote to get to a majority. oops.

they should have waited a few days before reacting. outright endorsing mike rogers may not have been the best choice for her political career, unless she thinks she can hold her district as an independent, but she might turn out to be right. the democratic party may very well be the one that ends up looking foolish, again.