so, i'm consolidating over the end of 2016 and...
.....how seriously should you take the idea that doug ford cheated to win?
i think you should take it fairly seriously. all i can do is poke holes in the data, and i'm not going to get more specific than claiming that the distribution is extremely surprising - we're supposed to believe that ford got a disproportionately huge swing in exactly the region he lost badly in the last mayoral election.
and, despite projections to the contrary, that's not something the data suggested. he was supposed to be running neck and neck with the ndp in the 905 - as weird as that is, it's what the data said. instead, we're supposed to believe that all these liberals swung to doug ford. and, we're supposed to believe that they finally beat their projections with doug ford, after decades of trying and failing with the likes of tory, hudak & harper.
...and we're supposed to believe that there was a big increase in turnout, too - in an election where polls suggested half of previous voters wouldn't vote, and the options ranged from widely despised to barely tolerable.
it smells funny.
but, that's not evidence; it's just suspicion. i think the data i presented here is strong enough to prove that clinton stole the 2016 primaries, and my actual prediction for the 2016 election was that clinton would win, but trump would steal it. that was my honest projection: trump is going to steal the election. i don't have that kind of data here, yet.
he didn't give us a platform, and they didn't give us much data, either.
but, on top of that, i'm going to draw attention to two facts: (1) ford appears to be using the same people that were involved in harper cheating his way to winning in 2011 (which has been proven, although the claim is it didn't affect the outcome), and in the same regions and (2) ford and many of his candidates are under investigation for fraud - and specifically for faking voter rolls.
the biggest argument against the idea is going to be that he doesn't have the influence. but, how clear is that, really? i dunno.
and, given that the media appeared to be in on it (as they were in the 2016 presidential election....), how far up does this actually go? who wants this stooge in power? the fucking power corp, or what?
there was a serious investigation into harper in 2011, and ford is under serious investigation for fraud, as it is. i don't have any hard evidence to put forward. but, i would encourage anybody with information to come out with it.
in the meantime, i'm going to suggest that it is likely that some evidence will eventually surface.
Saturday, June 9, 2018
Friday, June 8, 2018
"it was the conservatives that wanted to fund muslim schools?"
well, think about it for a minute. what, exactly. do you think is liberal about funding religious schools? i know that these words are flipped upside down in the united states - where liberals tend to support the democrats, which has always been the more conservative party - but it's kind of the most illiberal thing in the world, isn't it?
it should be expected that a modern conservatism would want to extend support for faith-based funding across the spectrum; but it also should be expected that a liberal party would oppose that, and would oppose any faith-based school funding at all.
the history here is complicated, and i'm not going to get into it, but the liberals have historically been a catholic minority party, and there's a lot of old identity politics around first french and then irish identity attached to this. i went to a catholic school high school in an italian neighbourhood that shipped a lot of irish kids in from the suburbs (st pius, in ottawa).
i don't actually know where the ndp stand on this issue.
well, think about it for a minute. what, exactly. do you think is liberal about funding religious schools? i know that these words are flipped upside down in the united states - where liberals tend to support the democrats, which has always been the more conservative party - but it's kind of the most illiberal thing in the world, isn't it?
it should be expected that a modern conservatism would want to extend support for faith-based funding across the spectrum; but it also should be expected that a liberal party would oppose that, and would oppose any faith-based school funding at all.
the history here is complicated, and i'm not going to get into it, but the liberals have historically been a catholic minority party, and there's a lot of old identity politics around first french and then irish identity attached to this. i went to a catholic school high school in an italian neighbourhood that shipped a lot of irish kids in from the suburbs (st pius, in ottawa).
i don't actually know where the ndp stand on this issue.
of course, for those that are a little slow...
john tory wanted to expand the separate school system to include pubic funding for other types of faith-based schools, most prominently funding for muslim schools. this was ripped apart mercilessly by dalton mcguinty, who may have been a hypocrite about it, but at the least took advantage of widespread opposition to public funding of the catholic school board. many people suggested at the time that he ought to take the next step, but he never did.
the green party is taking that next step by floating the idea of removing all funding for faith-based schools, which is the exact opposite of what john tory proposed - and what a large plurality of voters have wanted for decades.
we would probably end up with a small privately funded catholic school system, and we can only hope it withers away over time.
but, my position is that i support one secular public school system for everybody - which is the most popular position in this province.
john tory wanted to expand the separate school system to include pubic funding for other types of faith-based schools, most prominently funding for muslim schools. this was ripped apart mercilessly by dalton mcguinty, who may have been a hypocrite about it, but at the least took advantage of widespread opposition to public funding of the catholic school board. many people suggested at the time that he ought to take the next step, but he never did.
the green party is taking that next step by floating the idea of removing all funding for faith-based schools, which is the exact opposite of what john tory proposed - and what a large plurality of voters have wanted for decades.
we would probably end up with a small privately funded catholic school system, and we can only hope it withers away over time.
but, my position is that i support one secular public school system for everybody - which is the most popular position in this province.
i'm making progress on this.
it's been brutal in here all day, but i have no course of action at this point to resolve it besides running the hot water to try and steam the space out.
i don't understand why she won't go outside like a decent person would.
i hope that when the cancer does hit her, she has a long and painful death.
it's been brutal in here all day, but i have no course of action at this point to resolve it besides running the hot water to try and steam the space out.
i don't understand why she won't go outside like a decent person would.
i hope that when the cancer does hit her, she has a long and painful death.
i'm actually glad i didn't sign anything. i could have been in for a disaster scenario.
given that everybody knows that doug ford is going to slash disability, i'm at that much more of a disadvantage - if you're a landlord, and you know assistance is going to fall, why would you sign a lease with somebody on disability?
if he had put out a platform, we could at least plan around this. as it is, i have absolutely no idea how big my check is going to be a year from now, or what i'm going to have to do to adjust to less money.
given that everybody knows that doug ford is going to slash disability, i'm at that much more of a disadvantage - if you're a landlord, and you know assistance is going to fall, why would you sign a lease with somebody on disability?
if he had put out a platform, we could at least plan around this. as it is, i have absolutely no idea how big my check is going to be a year from now, or what i'm going to have to do to adjust to less money.
the bottom line is that i don't want to spend my last six months or my last year fighting court battles.
i'm going to focus on completing the discography, and prepare for the worst.
that likely means i'll be staying in more, too.
i'm back in a race against time: how much can i get done before doug ford signs my death sentence?
i'm going to focus on completing the discography, and prepare for the worst.
that likely means i'll be staying in more, too.
i'm back in a race against time: how much can i get done before doug ford signs my death sentence?
i'm kind of back in the mindset i was in over 2014 & 2015.
what's the use in quitting smoking if you're planning on killing yourself?
but, then i got my disability renewed...
now, i'm not sure that's going to happen, so i'm back to planning for suicide.
i don't think i'm going to pick it back up. but, i'm falling into apathy around it. so, maybe it's making me sick and ruining my quality of life? i'm going to fucking die anyways, right?
what's the use in quitting smoking if you're planning on killing yourself?
but, then i got my disability renewed...
now, i'm not sure that's going to happen, so i'm back to planning for suicide.
i don't think i'm going to pick it back up. but, i'm falling into apathy around it. so, maybe it's making me sick and ruining my quality of life? i'm going to fucking die anyways, right?
yeah....i....
i have absolutely no idea what the government is going to do for disability amounts. i suppose there's an obscure possibility that they could put through the gai - which i was kind of half planning around. they claim they'll let the experiment through, but whether what ford says means anything or not is a coin toss.
they could freeze it, which i could deal with.
or, they could slash it by 50%.
the harris government was downright savage in it's attacks on social service recipients, so there's precedent for something very damaging. and, the economy couldn't handle what that would do, either - unemployment would shoot up to 20%. we'd be dealing with an extreme homelessness problem.
but, i expect the next four years to be very dificult for poor people in this province.
it does not make sense to do anything at all until i get some idea of what they're doing. the reason he didn't release a platform was because he knew people wouldn't like what he was cutting. but, that means i'm stuck in the dark.
i need to wait.
i have absolutely no idea what the government is going to do for disability amounts. i suppose there's an obscure possibility that they could put through the gai - which i was kind of half planning around. they claim they'll let the experiment through, but whether what ford says means anything or not is a coin toss.
they could freeze it, which i could deal with.
or, they could slash it by 50%.
the harris government was downright savage in it's attacks on social service recipients, so there's precedent for something very damaging. and, the economy couldn't handle what that would do, either - unemployment would shoot up to 20%. we'd be dealing with an extreme homelessness problem.
but, i expect the next four years to be very dificult for poor people in this province.
it does not make sense to do anything at all until i get some idea of what they're doing. the reason he didn't release a platform was because he knew people wouldn't like what he was cutting. but, that means i'm stuck in the dark.
i need to wait.
so, what's going to happen if my benefits get cut?
i don't really know what the point of telling me to go work at a fast food restaurant is. there are people with kids that need the job. and, i'm not socially capable of dealing with anything more complex than that, either.
when working was a task, i could deal with it - i could go waste however many hours was necessary in order to save numbers to apply to some purpose. but, when you take away that task, and tell me it's forever, i'm left with what's essentially a death sentence - and the reality that i'd rather kill myself.
the problem is that i don't feel i'm done yet. i have a lot more work to do, before it's time to die. the question is whether i have enough time left to waste at a job or not.
i do think that it's a given that doug ford is going to cut disability rather drastically; this is going to hurt me quite a bit. and, i'm almost wondering if i want to cancel the court process in the short run.
i may have to make a call today.
i don't really know what the point of telling me to go work at a fast food restaurant is. there are people with kids that need the job. and, i'm not socially capable of dealing with anything more complex than that, either.
when working was a task, i could deal with it - i could go waste however many hours was necessary in order to save numbers to apply to some purpose. but, when you take away that task, and tell me it's forever, i'm left with what's essentially a death sentence - and the reality that i'd rather kill myself.
the problem is that i don't feel i'm done yet. i have a lot more work to do, before it's time to die. the question is whether i have enough time left to waste at a job or not.
i do think that it's a given that doug ford is going to cut disability rather drastically; this is going to hurt me quite a bit. and, i'm almost wondering if i want to cancel the court process in the short run.
i may have to make a call today.
i'll reiterate: the tories usually poll at the bottom of their error bars. this generally leads to exaggerated predictions that fail to materialize. tonight, they polled in the middle of it. this is an exception to the rule.
the tories have never won a majority government with less than 40% of the vote - and have ended up with leads in the 30s many times, always ending up with minorities. this has also repeatedly produced many exaggerated predictions. but, tonight was the exception to the rule.
while red/blue switchers were the dominant voter in the twentieth century, they have not existed in large numbers for the course of my conscious lifetime. liberal voters simply haven't voted for the conservatives in large numbers in decades. but, tonight they did.
& what the data suggested, when adjusted for all of these known historical errors and biases, was that we were looking at a small pc bump (not much more than the margin of error) that was distributed equally across the province, as well as exaggerated bumps in ndp support in urban ridings, which should have produced big ndp gains in urban seats and not much for the conservatives, who had a less concentrated vote. while we saw these big ndp bumps in the very downtown cores, we also saw large conservative bumps in suburban areas that i maintain was not something that was predictable from the data, besides through projection. but, it happened, nonetheless, whether via projection or via something else.
i'm not going to adjust my methods over this. i'm going to shrug it off as weird.
and, as mentioned repeatedly, both before and after the vote, as very fishy.
the tories have never won a majority government with less than 40% of the vote - and have ended up with leads in the 30s many times, always ending up with minorities. this has also repeatedly produced many exaggerated predictions. but, tonight was the exception to the rule.
while red/blue switchers were the dominant voter in the twentieth century, they have not existed in large numbers for the course of my conscious lifetime. liberal voters simply haven't voted for the conservatives in large numbers in decades. but, tonight they did.
& what the data suggested, when adjusted for all of these known historical errors and biases, was that we were looking at a small pc bump (not much more than the margin of error) that was distributed equally across the province, as well as exaggerated bumps in ndp support in urban ridings, which should have produced big ndp gains in urban seats and not much for the conservatives, who had a less concentrated vote. while we saw these big ndp bumps in the very downtown cores, we also saw large conservative bumps in suburban areas that i maintain was not something that was predictable from the data, besides through projection. but, it happened, nonetheless, whether via projection or via something else.
i'm not going to adjust my methods over this. i'm going to shrug it off as weird.
and, as mentioned repeatedly, both before and after the vote, as very fishy.
turnout appears to have actually been higher than last election.
so, this was an unprecedented shift: after vehemently rejecting him for mayor a few years ago, and living through what was widely seen as hell for his brother's time at city hall, liberals in toronto actually swallowed themselves whole and voted for doug ford. i find this incomprehensible, but, barring the premise of stuffed boxes, that's what happened.
it's fishy enough to be suspicious.
the ndp didn't split the vote. liberal voters made that choice. in large numbers. apparently.
i don't think i made any errors in analysis; i think my criticisms of the mainstream analysis were grounded, and that the results were very much unexpected. i did not see any convincing evidence of large scale movement from red to blue in toronto. this is the lowest popular vote for a tory majority...ever...as far as i can see: the conservatives hadn't ever won a majority with 40% before. the tory vote was not "efficient", so much as liberals voted for them in large numbers, which has never happened before, either. &etc.
this was really just an exercise in mass idiocy, the likes of which i never thought i'd see here - and which, i need to reiterate, was not suggested by historical data, at all. it really is unprecedented.
but, so be it.
now, we must fight as hard as we can to stop him from ruining the province.
so, this was an unprecedented shift: after vehemently rejecting him for mayor a few years ago, and living through what was widely seen as hell for his brother's time at city hall, liberals in toronto actually swallowed themselves whole and voted for doug ford. i find this incomprehensible, but, barring the premise of stuffed boxes, that's what happened.
it's fishy enough to be suspicious.
the ndp didn't split the vote. liberal voters made that choice. in large numbers. apparently.
i don't think i made any errors in analysis; i think my criticisms of the mainstream analysis were grounded, and that the results were very much unexpected. i did not see any convincing evidence of large scale movement from red to blue in toronto. this is the lowest popular vote for a tory majority...ever...as far as i can see: the conservatives hadn't ever won a majority with 40% before. the tory vote was not "efficient", so much as liberals voted for them in large numbers, which has never happened before, either. &etc.
this was really just an exercise in mass idiocy, the likes of which i never thought i'd see here - and which, i need to reiterate, was not suggested by historical data, at all. it really is unprecedented.
but, so be it.
now, we must fight as hard as we can to stop him from ruining the province.
Thursday, June 7, 2018
and, if you're making minimum wage and you voted conservative, you're a fucking idiot.
he's going to reduce your salary and then send you a $14 credit on your tax bill to make up for it. i might advise him to send you a shit sandwich in the mail, along with the refund.
the numbers were not there. i'm kind of shocked. but if i have to spend the next four years marching then so fucking be it.
he's going to reduce your salary and then send you a $14 credit on your tax bill to make up for it. i might advise him to send you a shit sandwich in the mail, along with the refund.
the numbers were not there. i'm kind of shocked. but if i have to spend the next four years marching then so fucking be it.
see, this is a part of why i like the liberals in power - it's relative peace, because the bourgeoisie just pays us off. call me a sellout, but i'm just as happy to take the cash.
when conservatives are in power, and they start launching battles in the class war, we have to ensure we're causing havoc. strikes. marches. whatever causes disruption, whatever hurts capital, whatever leads to mayhem and disorder.
let's strive to make the next four years as chaotic and miserable for capital as is possible.
when conservatives are in power, and they start launching battles in the class war, we have to ensure we're causing havoc. strikes. marches. whatever causes disruption, whatever hurts capital, whatever leads to mayhem and disorder.
let's strive to make the next four years as chaotic and miserable for capital as is possible.
it's a sad day for ontario.
another step in the race to the bottom.
another leap head first into the third world.
& the worst part about is that we're going to have to listen to the fucking idiot talk in public for the next four years. the guy is such a dumbass that he makes dubya sound like a genius.
i don't know what he's going to do. literally. he provided no coherent idea of what his plans are - he ran on cheap beer & cheap gas.
but, generally, these kinds of candidates slash funding for health care, slash funding for education & slash funding for welfare.
we'll have to see what he does before i can figure out how to react in terms of organizing marches & whatnot.
another step in the race to the bottom.
another leap head first into the third world.
& the worst part about is that we're going to have to listen to the fucking idiot talk in public for the next four years. the guy is such a dumbass that he makes dubya sound like a genius.
i don't know what he's going to do. literally. he provided no coherent idea of what his plans are - he ran on cheap beer & cheap gas.
but, generally, these kinds of candidates slash funding for health care, slash funding for education & slash funding for welfare.
we'll have to see what he does before i can figure out how to react in terms of organizing marches & whatnot.
so, this isn't about "voter efficiency" - i was wrong about turnout, and the point they were making about distribution ought to have been irrelevant or wrong due to the swing. when i pointed out that the pcs can't win a majority of seats with 39% of the vote, i was right to do it - assuming that liberals vote one way or the other. if liberals vote conservative, they get over 39%; if they vote ndp or liberal, that's just not enough to win. then they just didn't vote at all. & when the talking heads argued that the ndp vote was poorly distributed, they should have been misinterpreting the evidence - but happened to fluke out because liberals didn't vote at all. i mean, what happened wasn't about the ndp's vote distribution, it was about the evaporation of liberal voters altogether. if the argument was that the conservatives can win via vote suppression, i would have agreed with the point, even if i guffawed at the numbers required to do so.
and is this believable?
i have no evidence regarding voter suppression, but would encourage others to explore the situation.
and is this believable?
i have no evidence regarding voter suppression, but would encourage others to explore the situation.
i didn't vote ndp, either. but the ndp won this riding by 10,000 votes. it was maybe a little more intense than i thought, but not unexpected in the general outcome.
if i was in a swing riding?
it turns out the strategic vote was liberal after all in most of these areas. but, the ndp numbers didn't go up, or not by a lot - the vote wasn't split. that argument's not going to work, here.
it's liberals that just didn't vote, and in huge numbers.
if i was in a swing riding?
it turns out the strategic vote was liberal after all in most of these areas. but, the ndp numbers didn't go up, or not by a lot - the vote wasn't split. that argument's not going to work, here.
it's liberals that just didn't vote, and in huge numbers.
as for the outcome, i'm embarrassed. - not because i was wrong, but because of what the province just did.
we just elected an absolute buffoon who promised to do stupid things, and is going to hurt the province dramatically. i can't believe that the people of this province could be so stupid; we don't have a history of this.
but, now, it's time to organize & fight.
we just elected an absolute buffoon who promised to do stupid things, and is going to hurt the province dramatically. i can't believe that the people of this province could be so stupid; we don't have a history of this.
but, now, it's time to organize & fight.
i'm going to tell you what i'm surprised about.
the range was 34-43, so i wasn't arguing that the polling was wrong so much as i was arguing that the analysis was inaccurate. if the conservatives ended up with 36, that wouldn't mean the polling was wrong, as it was correctly in the range. and, at 39-40%, that doesn't mean the polling is more right: it's a range. i was just pointing out that the conservatives usually poll at the bottom of the range. they did federally in 2015, 2011, 2008 & 2006 - as well as in every provincial election i can remember.
if they end the night in the middle of the range, that is unusual. it's not more right, it's just not consistent with the general trend. & that's what i'm surprised about. this election is consequently an outlier in terms of how results line up with polling measurements.
i haven't seen turnout numbers yet, but what it suggests is that turnout was probably quite low. this is what the models suggested, and that's fine. but, we're used to low turnout, and it's never affected the analysis before. this must have been really low turnout - so low you might want to wonder about it.
so, that's the first thing i'm surprised about - that the conservatives polled in the middle of their range rather than at the bottom of it, like they usually do. and, that would have to be because turnout was low.
the second thing i'm surprised about is that the liberal numbers are as low as they are, and that's the other side of the equation. they could still end up a tad over 20%. but, i was expecting that this is where the error would wash out, and they'd get to 22 or 23.
the end result is the outcome i feared: liberals just didn't vote at all. mostly in the gta. so, you're going to hear people talk about the conservatives swinging liberal votes, but if you look at absolute numbers, that will come out as false: conservative numbers likely stayed flat in the gta, while liberal numbers crashed. so, the conservatives ended up winning seats as a consequence of liberals staying home, the result of voter suppression through media assassination.
my analysis was rooted in rejecting the idea of equally distributing undecideds, which were clearly disproportionately historical liberal voters, and correcting the distribution of liberal voters to account for their ideological leanings. i continually pointed out that if these voters don't vote at all, the pcs would split the vote - but i didn't think that would actually happen.
had all of those liberal voters voted...
alas.
i got my huge swings in downtown toronto, but as soon as you get out of the core, those liberal voters stay home rather than vote liberal or ndp.
so, give the election to the media: it succeeded in suppressing the vote.
...if it was the media & not the machines.
the range was 34-43, so i wasn't arguing that the polling was wrong so much as i was arguing that the analysis was inaccurate. if the conservatives ended up with 36, that wouldn't mean the polling was wrong, as it was correctly in the range. and, at 39-40%, that doesn't mean the polling is more right: it's a range. i was just pointing out that the conservatives usually poll at the bottom of the range. they did federally in 2015, 2011, 2008 & 2006 - as well as in every provincial election i can remember.
if they end the night in the middle of the range, that is unusual. it's not more right, it's just not consistent with the general trend. & that's what i'm surprised about. this election is consequently an outlier in terms of how results line up with polling measurements.
i haven't seen turnout numbers yet, but what it suggests is that turnout was probably quite low. this is what the models suggested, and that's fine. but, we're used to low turnout, and it's never affected the analysis before. this must have been really low turnout - so low you might want to wonder about it.
so, that's the first thing i'm surprised about - that the conservatives polled in the middle of their range rather than at the bottom of it, like they usually do. and, that would have to be because turnout was low.
the second thing i'm surprised about is that the liberal numbers are as low as they are, and that's the other side of the equation. they could still end up a tad over 20%. but, i was expecting that this is where the error would wash out, and they'd get to 22 or 23.
the end result is the outcome i feared: liberals just didn't vote at all. mostly in the gta. so, you're going to hear people talk about the conservatives swinging liberal votes, but if you look at absolute numbers, that will come out as false: conservative numbers likely stayed flat in the gta, while liberal numbers crashed. so, the conservatives ended up winning seats as a consequence of liberals staying home, the result of voter suppression through media assassination.
my analysis was rooted in rejecting the idea of equally distributing undecideds, which were clearly disproportionately historical liberal voters, and correcting the distribution of liberal voters to account for their ideological leanings. i continually pointed out that if these voters don't vote at all, the pcs would split the vote - but i didn't think that would actually happen.
had all of those liberal voters voted...
alas.
i got my huge swings in downtown toronto, but as soon as you get out of the core, those liberal voters stay home rather than vote liberal or ndp.
so, give the election to the media: it succeeded in suppressing the vote.
...if it was the media & not the machines.
the cbc site appears to be getting ddosed by legit users.
personally, i haven't had access to a tv to watch an election on since 2002. guess the world's catching up on me...
...but, considering that the site can't handle the traffic, please turn your tv on if you can, so people like me can access the site online.
personally, i haven't had access to a tv to watch an election on since 2002. guess the world's catching up on me...
...but, considering that the site can't handle the traffic, please turn your tv on if you can, so people like me can access the site online.
again: the conservatives, under stephen harper, managed 45% of the vote in ontario in 2011. that was enough for a majority of seats in ontario.
in 2008, however, which is a better comparison over all, the conservatives got 39% of the vote in ontario - which was only enough for a minority of seats in the province.
the data suggests that doug ford will be lucky to match the 2008 totals - and that he is not even close to the 2011 totals.
historically, bill davis also needed 44%+ to run a majority. davis ran at 36 once and at 39 once and ended up with minorities both times. mike harris ran at 45% for both of his majorities.
it is entirely unclear where the narrative of "conservative vote efficiencies" came from, if not from the ford campaign itself. that sounds like the kind of vacuous bluster that would come out of his mouth, not a reasoned deduction from seasoned pollsters who should be well aware that the conservatives need exaggerated numbers province wide to allow for boosts in urban areas.sufficient enough for them to win elections. they've always had the least efficient vote.
the conservatives are up at most 8 points and they lost dozens of urban ridings by way more than 15 last time. if i'm right and they're up more like 3 or 4 points, they're not likely to improve much on their existing seat total at all - especially considering that the liberals are bleeding so heavily to the ndp.
but, even seasoned liberal propagandists are repeating this pablum.
it shows the power of the tory media to control the narrative.
in 2008, however, which is a better comparison over all, the conservatives got 39% of the vote in ontario - which was only enough for a minority of seats in the province.
the data suggests that doug ford will be lucky to match the 2008 totals - and that he is not even close to the 2011 totals.
historically, bill davis also needed 44%+ to run a majority. davis ran at 36 once and at 39 once and ended up with minorities both times. mike harris ran at 45% for both of his majorities.
it is entirely unclear where the narrative of "conservative vote efficiencies" came from, if not from the ford campaign itself. that sounds like the kind of vacuous bluster that would come out of his mouth, not a reasoned deduction from seasoned pollsters who should be well aware that the conservatives need exaggerated numbers province wide to allow for boosts in urban areas.sufficient enough for them to win elections. they've always had the least efficient vote.
the conservatives are up at most 8 points and they lost dozens of urban ridings by way more than 15 last time. if i'm right and they're up more like 3 or 4 points, they're not likely to improve much on their existing seat total at all - especially considering that the liberals are bleeding so heavily to the ndp.
but, even seasoned liberal propagandists are repeating this pablum.
it shows the power of the tory media to control the narrative.
a lot of urban ridings looked like this:
liberal - 60%
conservative - 20%
ndp - 15%
then, they claim the conservatives have a better chance because they came in second in more ridings. right.
that riding could very well end up like this tonight:
ndp: -35%
liberal - 34%
conservative - 26%
you just want to make sure you actually vote.
liberal - 60%
conservative - 20%
ndp - 15%
then, they claim the conservatives have a better chance because they came in second in more ridings. right.
that riding could very well end up like this tonight:
ndp: -35%
liberal - 34%
conservative - 26%
you just want to make sure you actually vote.
just whatever you do, don't get overwhelmed and not vote.
to an extent, it even doesn't matter; despite the narrative, ford needs to make up so much ground that as long as turnout doesn't collapse, he doesn't really have a serious chance at a majority.
if you can't figure it out, guess. but don't give up - be confident in your guess.
to an extent, it even doesn't matter; despite the narrative, ford needs to make up so much ground that as long as turnout doesn't collapse, he doesn't really have a serious chance at a majority.
if you can't figure it out, guess. but don't give up - be confident in your guess.
this is a good example of what not to listen to today.
"but, the ndp would have to swing 40% of the vote in that riding to win! the liberals are the obvious strategic choice."
i was skeptical until i saw the data, too, but the ndp are swinging 40% of the vote.
or, at least they are in some places.
this is a hard problem; i can't solve it without a lot of data, and i don't have a lot of data. but, don't follow the kind of simplistic analysis presented here. it's just as bad as the projections coming from lispop.
the hard truth is that some of these ridings will swing 45% from liberal to ndp and some of them won't swing at all and it's up to you to guess which is which. good luck. the province depends on it.
don't look at me like that, blame the media for creating havoc.
but, remember: the tories have never won a majority at either level with less than 40% of the vote, and there's not any good reason to think they will this time, either.
https://nowtoronto.com/news/ontario-election-2018-andrea-horwath-kathleen-wynne-doug-ford/
"but, the ndp would have to swing 40% of the vote in that riding to win! the liberals are the obvious strategic choice."
i was skeptical until i saw the data, too, but the ndp are swinging 40% of the vote.
or, at least they are in some places.
this is a hard problem; i can't solve it without a lot of data, and i don't have a lot of data. but, don't follow the kind of simplistic analysis presented here. it's just as bad as the projections coming from lispop.
the hard truth is that some of these ridings will swing 45% from liberal to ndp and some of them won't swing at all and it's up to you to guess which is which. good luck. the province depends on it.
don't look at me like that, blame the media for creating havoc.
but, remember: the tories have never won a majority at either level with less than 40% of the vote, and there's not any good reason to think they will this time, either.
https://nowtoronto.com/news/ontario-election-2018-andrea-horwath-kathleen-wynne-doug-ford/
this cannot be allowed to happen.
if you are in the region, i'd encourage civil disobedience.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/councilman-plans-gender-segregated-beach-days-for-religious-1.3963286
if you are in the region, i'd encourage civil disobedience.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/councilman-plans-gender-segregated-beach-days-for-religious-1.3963286
you'd have to have lungs like michael phelps to reduce 5 grams to 4 tokes.
that's superhuman. really.
it's actually about 20 joints and 200+ tokes.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/senators-marijuana-legalization-abstain-1.4695824
that's superhuman. really.
it's actually about 20 joints and 200+ tokes.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/senators-marijuana-legalization-abstain-1.4695824
can you come up with a valid argument as to why people should have violent dogs?
i can't.
at least with guns, there's a human on the other side. you can make arguments about how gun control isn't the answer, so much as a change in the culture is. and, that remains true with dogs as well - the real answer is that we need a cultural shift away from the machismo that glorifies the ownership of these breeds. sure.
but, a violent dog doesn't have a safety on it. you can't lock it in a cabinet, where the kids can't get at it. it's an omnipresent danger, with it's own personality.
i don't know exactly how you do this, and i would like to ensure that the science is consulted - because i want it to be effective. if the science says it's not going to work, what's the point, right? but i would like to see stronger action taken, nonetheless.
i can't.
at least with guns, there's a human on the other side. you can make arguments about how gun control isn't the answer, so much as a change in the culture is. and, that remains true with dogs as well - the real answer is that we need a cultural shift away from the machismo that glorifies the ownership of these breeds. sure.
but, a violent dog doesn't have a safety on it. you can't lock it in a cabinet, where the kids can't get at it. it's an omnipresent danger, with it's own personality.
i don't know exactly how you do this, and i would like to ensure that the science is consulted - because i want it to be effective. if the science says it's not going to work, what's the point, right? but i would like to see stronger action taken, nonetheless.
ok, and it seems like that's what they're doing.
perhaps the laws in ontario could use a similar rewrite to increase enforcement.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/06/quebecs-proposed-dangerous-dog-law-ditches-breed-specific-ban_a_23452761/
perhaps the laws in ontario could use a similar rewrite to increase enforcement.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/06/quebecs-proposed-dangerous-dog-law-ditches-breed-specific-ban_a_23452761/
i understand the point.
but, rather than back off altogether, i was hoping to see action towards banning all large dogs altogether. i don't feel i should be afraid to walk down the street because people want to express their chauvinism through big stupid dogs, and the fact is that i often am.
pit bulls. rottweilers. german shephards. dobermans. get rid of all of them....
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/06/quebec-abandons-plans-for-pit-bull-ban-citing-lack-of-science-to-back-breed-specific-laws.html
but, rather than back off altogether, i was hoping to see action towards banning all large dogs altogether. i don't feel i should be afraid to walk down the street because people want to express their chauvinism through big stupid dogs, and the fact is that i often am.
pit bulls. rottweilers. german shephards. dobermans. get rid of all of them....
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/06/quebec-abandons-plans-for-pit-bull-ban-citing-lack-of-science-to-back-breed-specific-laws.html
"the liberals are going to end up with the balance of power!? that's terrible..."
nah.
we just came out of 15 years of liberal government. there's not a lot of evidence that the province has undergone a fundamental shift in ideology, either; the premier's policies are quite popular, voters just hate her. there's no convincing evidence that the province has developed an aversion to debt, either.
wynne's argument is really pretty consistent with the way our system works, which the ndp have never liked; it's a check on power, to allow voters to be sure they're making this choice.
we're not stuck with this for four years; the government could fall on the first budget.
so, a likely scenario is that the ndp decide they want to do something to undo the liberal legacy, and voters need to vote on it to confirm it - or return the liberals to power.
more voting is more democratic; it's a feature, it's not a bug.
nah.
we just came out of 15 years of liberal government. there's not a lot of evidence that the province has undergone a fundamental shift in ideology, either; the premier's policies are quite popular, voters just hate her. there's no convincing evidence that the province has developed an aversion to debt, either.
wynne's argument is really pretty consistent with the way our system works, which the ndp have never liked; it's a check on power, to allow voters to be sure they're making this choice.
we're not stuck with this for four years; the government could fall on the first budget.
so, a likely scenario is that the ndp decide they want to do something to undo the liberal legacy, and voters need to vote on it to confirm it - or return the liberals to power.
more voting is more democratic; it's a feature, it's not a bug.
that was a crash last night, but it was a healthy one.
i need to pivot starting today.
but, what i'm going to do over off hours is the following:
1) copy the existing music blog into the master music document.
2) copy the master music document into the complete master document
3) carry on with the same process as previously.
today, i need to vote - for the greens. get some salami. get some ventolin. & get to looking for somewhere else to live.
i need to pivot starting today.
but, what i'm going to do over off hours is the following:
1) copy the existing music blog into the master music document.
2) copy the master music document into the complete master document
3) carry on with the same process as previously.
today, i need to vote - for the greens. get some salami. get some ventolin. & get to looking for somewhere else to live.
this was a weird election.
but, it demonstrates that splitting the vote isn't necessarily catastrophic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1975
but, it demonstrates that splitting the vote isn't necessarily catastrophic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1975
again: i will be surprised if the conservatives poll above 35%. am i ignoring the data? no - i'm just reading it correctly.
the polling data does not suggest that the conservatives will poll at 38-39%. what it suggests, rather, is that there's a ninety some percent chance that they poll in the range of [34, 43]. polling is never an exact number, but always a range. but, we know from experience that the telephone polling has inherent biases that favour the conservatives. so, a prudent reading of the data suggests they should end up near the bottom of it, and that there's a higher chance of them polling polling around 34-36 than there is of them polling around 42-43.
i'll acknowledge a level of intuition in pegging them at the very bottom of this range. this election has been defined by exceedingly nasty media coverage of the ruling party, which is clearly on the opposite side of the broader electorate. further, doug ford is clearly not fit for the job. in electing doug ford, ontario would be suffering a collective experience of mass idiocy that it is not known for. i would consequently assign most of that error to the liberals out of a shy effect, rather than to the ndp.
might i be wrong, though? sure.
so, let's say i'm wrong. let's say the conservatives get 39% of the vote.
look as i may, i cannot find an example of the conservatives winning a majority government in ontario with under 40% of the vote. harris polled around 45% in both wins - numbers that nobody is talking about. bill davis had majorities at 44% and minorities at 36% and 39%. frank miller had a minority at 37%. if we trust the elections bodies to distribute the ridings fairly, we can only conclude that ontario is less rural today than it was in the late 70s, and that it would be harder to win a majority in the high 30s today than it was then.
looking at federal data, stephen harper got 44% in 2011 and 39% in 2008 - which is the difference between a majority and a minority.
so, even if i concede that the conservatives may be running in the middle of their range, i don't concede that that makes a majority government likely. i would rather argue rather forcefully that it makes a minority government likely.
you can come up with whatever theory you want, but i think it is clear that the empirical data suggests that the conservatives need to be running in the 40s to make a majority government an idea to even talk about, and should be running closer to 45 to make it likely.
again: my reading of the data is that the ndp is on the brink of a sweep in toronto. i think we're looking at an ndp majority government.
but, if i'm wrong, this legislature is more likely to end up looking something like the minority government of the 70s than it is to end up looking like the majority government of the 90s - even if we have no real idea of how doug ford would actually govern.
the polling data does not suggest that the conservatives will poll at 38-39%. what it suggests, rather, is that there's a ninety some percent chance that they poll in the range of [34, 43]. polling is never an exact number, but always a range. but, we know from experience that the telephone polling has inherent biases that favour the conservatives. so, a prudent reading of the data suggests they should end up near the bottom of it, and that there's a higher chance of them polling polling around 34-36 than there is of them polling around 42-43.
i'll acknowledge a level of intuition in pegging them at the very bottom of this range. this election has been defined by exceedingly nasty media coverage of the ruling party, which is clearly on the opposite side of the broader electorate. further, doug ford is clearly not fit for the job. in electing doug ford, ontario would be suffering a collective experience of mass idiocy that it is not known for. i would consequently assign most of that error to the liberals out of a shy effect, rather than to the ndp.
might i be wrong, though? sure.
so, let's say i'm wrong. let's say the conservatives get 39% of the vote.
look as i may, i cannot find an example of the conservatives winning a majority government in ontario with under 40% of the vote. harris polled around 45% in both wins - numbers that nobody is talking about. bill davis had majorities at 44% and minorities at 36% and 39%. frank miller had a minority at 37%. if we trust the elections bodies to distribute the ridings fairly, we can only conclude that ontario is less rural today than it was in the late 70s, and that it would be harder to win a majority in the high 30s today than it was then.
looking at federal data, stephen harper got 44% in 2011 and 39% in 2008 - which is the difference between a majority and a minority.
so, even if i concede that the conservatives may be running in the middle of their range, i don't concede that that makes a majority government likely. i would rather argue rather forcefully that it makes a minority government likely.
you can come up with whatever theory you want, but i think it is clear that the empirical data suggests that the conservatives need to be running in the 40s to make a majority government an idea to even talk about, and should be running closer to 45 to make it likely.
again: my reading of the data is that the ndp is on the brink of a sweep in toronto. i think we're looking at an ndp majority government.
but, if i'm wrong, this legislature is more likely to end up looking something like the minority government of the 70s than it is to end up looking like the majority government of the 90s - even if we have no real idea of how doug ford would actually govern.
Wednesday, June 6, 2018
so, what's with the markets? aren't they supposed to have crashed by now?
well, they've been pretty volatile...
there's a class of traders right now with no meaningful concept of reality that is playing the market like a casino and driving up costs through speculation. but, the money is drying up, nonetheless. the longer that they artificially prop these stocks up, the harder they'll crash in the end.
wait it out.
well, they've been pretty volatile...
there's a class of traders right now with no meaningful concept of reality that is playing the market like a casino and driving up costs through speculation. but, the money is drying up, nonetheless. the longer that they artificially prop these stocks up, the harder they'll crash in the end.
wait it out.
if you thought i was going to see a porn star perform at a vape lounge, you've got me very wrong.
my friends tried to take me to a strip club once around my 18th birthday by surprise, like they put me in the car and didn't tell me where we were going because they knew i wouldn't have gone, but i pretended i left my id at home and sat in the car, instead.
i'm 37 years old; i've never been in a strip club.
you'd have to drug me and drag me in unconscious.
my friends tried to take me to a strip club once around my 18th birthday by surprise, like they put me in the car and didn't tell me where we were going because they knew i wouldn't have gone, but i pretended i left my id at home and sat in the car, instead.
i'm 37 years old; i've never been in a strip club.
you'd have to drug me and drag me in unconscious.
so, how do i want to do this?
on second thought, i'm going to need to sync everything up until the end of 2016 before i can release inri000, because that's when it releases in the alter-reality. yeah. & then i'm...ack....i'm going to have to catch up to where i am after all, so i can date the 1997 alter-reality posts to current posting. yeah...
*shrug*.
i should at least be able to start writing notes in the alter-reality by the time get through 2016.
i''ll also need to start editing vlogs again once i get to mid 2017. hrmmn.
it could be a while still, after all.
on second thought, i'm going to need to sync everything up until the end of 2016 before i can release inri000, because that's when it releases in the alter-reality. yeah. & then i'm...ack....i'm going to have to catch up to where i am after all, so i can date the 1997 alter-reality posts to current posting. yeah...
*shrug*.
i should at least be able to start writing notes in the alter-reality by the time get through 2016.
i''ll also need to start editing vlogs again once i get to mid 2017. hrmmn.
it could be a while still, after all.
i have now reached the hook-up; the music blog, while incomplete, is abler to narrate back to mid-2013.
i'm going to continue to push forward with this for the rest of the night, but i must focus on apartment hunting tomorrow.
i still have two years and counting of rebuilding to do, but the focus of the process is going to shift, because i should be able to build the final liner notes for inri000, which means i should be able to get back to the alter-reality and build notes as i go for these release, as well.
so, i'm going to be rebuilding through 2016, writing alter-reality posts and closing the liner notes on discs, simultaneously. that should start within a week or two and run until i catch up on the rebuild up to where i am at the moment i catch up.
once the alter-reality is caught up, i'll try and keep on track with it in real time. &, if i'm lucky, i should be able to get started on period 3 shortly after the move.
so, this place in the end appears to be being utilized mostly as storage. i really wish the people around me weren't revoltingly disgusting, but so be it - i'm almost back on track.
the actual purpose of what i'm doing should be more apparent fairly shortly.
i'm going to continue to push forward with this for the rest of the night, but i must focus on apartment hunting tomorrow.
i still have two years and counting of rebuilding to do, but the focus of the process is going to shift, because i should be able to build the final liner notes for inri000, which means i should be able to get back to the alter-reality and build notes as i go for these release, as well.
so, i'm going to be rebuilding through 2016, writing alter-reality posts and closing the liner notes on discs, simultaneously. that should start within a week or two and run until i catch up on the rebuild up to where i am at the moment i catch up.
once the alter-reality is caught up, i'll try and keep on track with it in real time. &, if i'm lucky, i should be able to get started on period 3 shortly after the move.
so, this place in the end appears to be being utilized mostly as storage. i really wish the people around me weren't revoltingly disgusting, but so be it - i'm almost back on track.
the actual purpose of what i'm doing should be more apparent fairly shortly.
i don't understand why anybody in ottawa ever thought it was worthwhile to treat donald trump as a rational actor.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/canada/didnt-you-guys-burn-down-the-white-house-trump-uses-war-of-1812-to-justify-canada-as-security-threat/wcm/6c181ca0-c129-4a0b-9f32-38d3ff065768
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/canada/didnt-you-guys-burn-down-the-white-house-trump-uses-war-of-1812-to-justify-canada-as-security-threat/wcm/6c181ca0-c129-4a0b-9f32-38d3ff065768
i'm going to say something else though, because i think this was a big factor last time.
polling companies categorize old people as 65+. then, they claim seniors are more likely to vote. and, i don't protest.
but, how many people on the phone are 65-80 and how many are 80+? and are people 80+ more likely to vote?
i suspect that what happened last time is that the polling firms talked to a lot of 90 year old conservatives, categorized them as seniors and then concluded that the conservatives had a big advantage - only to scratch their heads when it didn't materialize.
with life expectancies in their 80s nowadays, and data being collected over multiple generational divides and disparate living realities, pollsters need to split seniors into at least two categories, moving forwards.
polling companies categorize old people as 65+. then, they claim seniors are more likely to vote. and, i don't protest.
but, how many people on the phone are 65-80 and how many are 80+? and are people 80+ more likely to vote?
i suspect that what happened last time is that the polling firms talked to a lot of 90 year old conservatives, categorized them as seniors and then concluded that the conservatives had a big advantage - only to scratch their heads when it didn't materialize.
with life expectancies in their 80s nowadays, and data being collected over multiple generational divides and disparate living realities, pollsters need to split seniors into at least two categories, moving forwards.
i can't tell you who to vote for.
as mentioned, it seems like the ndp and liberals have switched places almost everywhere, with the possible exception of a small number of areas in the 905. but, it's a small number of areas. you'll need to work that out on your own. they should do best in areas with a lot of educated workers; this is an election between demagogues on the left and right, with smart and informed people being disenfranchised - where these people cluster are the handful of seats the liberals will win. the university ridings. the high tech sectors.
i suspect there's a "shy wynne supporter" effect at play and that the liberals will do a little better than projected. but this is impossible to quantify, and impossible to predict the effects of.
you probably want to vote ndp. or, if you're in a likely safe ndp riding and you feel talked down to by andrea horwath and her fake accent, you might want to vote green out of protest.
if the vote coalesces, the ndp will win a big majority. if it doesn't, the media strategy will have been effective, and the tories will succeed in splitting the vote.
that said, 38% should not be enough for a tory majority in ontario. they need more like 42%, because their vote is inefficiently localized in rural ridings and they tend to be uncompetitive in cities. but, they always run at the bottom of their error bars, so they're probably running close to 34-35 anyways. what that means is that the pollsters need to tell you they're running closer to 45% to be seriously worried about a tory majority.
turnout is always a wildcard, but i do not expect a tory majority, even if the vote splits badly. in the scary scenario - i'm not going to say worst case - you're going to end up with a tory minority, and horwath is going to need liberal and maybe green mps to pass a budget.
but, i remain convinced that the ndp are running ahead of the tories province wide and especially in the gta, where it matters.
substituting the ndp for the liberals, the polls are almost identical to where they were four years ago. and, the predictions are almost identical, too. everybody predicted a tory majority...
...but, the liberals won a majority in the end.
it's the ndp's turn, this time, to confound the media's right-wing bias and cheerleading for the ontario tories and frustrate them with a clear majority.
...& part of me hopes they go after the bastards that accidentally elected them.
as mentioned, it seems like the ndp and liberals have switched places almost everywhere, with the possible exception of a small number of areas in the 905. but, it's a small number of areas. you'll need to work that out on your own. they should do best in areas with a lot of educated workers; this is an election between demagogues on the left and right, with smart and informed people being disenfranchised - where these people cluster are the handful of seats the liberals will win. the university ridings. the high tech sectors.
i suspect there's a "shy wynne supporter" effect at play and that the liberals will do a little better than projected. but this is impossible to quantify, and impossible to predict the effects of.
you probably want to vote ndp. or, if you're in a likely safe ndp riding and you feel talked down to by andrea horwath and her fake accent, you might want to vote green out of protest.
if the vote coalesces, the ndp will win a big majority. if it doesn't, the media strategy will have been effective, and the tories will succeed in splitting the vote.
that said, 38% should not be enough for a tory majority in ontario. they need more like 42%, because their vote is inefficiently localized in rural ridings and they tend to be uncompetitive in cities. but, they always run at the bottom of their error bars, so they're probably running close to 34-35 anyways. what that means is that the pollsters need to tell you they're running closer to 45% to be seriously worried about a tory majority.
turnout is always a wildcard, but i do not expect a tory majority, even if the vote splits badly. in the scary scenario - i'm not going to say worst case - you're going to end up with a tory minority, and horwath is going to need liberal and maybe green mps to pass a budget.
but, i remain convinced that the ndp are running ahead of the tories province wide and especially in the gta, where it matters.
substituting the ndp for the liberals, the polls are almost identical to where they were four years ago. and, the predictions are almost identical, too. everybody predicted a tory majority...
...but, the liberals won a majority in the end.
it's the ndp's turn, this time, to confound the media's right-wing bias and cheerleading for the ontario tories and frustrate them with a clear majority.
...& part of me hopes they go after the bastards that accidentally elected them.
why was he handing out flyers to kids too young to vote?
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/06/05/pc-candidate-raymond-cho-apologizes-over-physical-altercation-with-grade-7-student-outside-scarborough-school.html
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/06/05/pc-candidate-raymond-cho-apologizes-over-physical-altercation-with-grade-7-student-outside-scarborough-school.html
i've been opposed to nafta my whole life.
as a teenager, i marched with the unions against it.
it's at the core of my self-awareness, politically. it's one of the things that radicalized me.
the opposition to nafta was lead by the left, by the ndp (although i identified more with the liberal position, which supported actual reciprocity with the united states, but opposed the investors rights agreement that the fta was and any trilateral agreement with mexico) and by the unions and by the socialists. most of what we feared has come to fruition. so, it's disingenuous to suggest this is some kind of right-wing movement devised by donald trump.
i acknowledge there's not any easy way out. but, i've made my views here clear enough.
as a teenager, i marched with the unions against it.
it's at the core of my self-awareness, politically. it's one of the things that radicalized me.
the opposition to nafta was lead by the left, by the ndp (although i identified more with the liberal position, which supported actual reciprocity with the united states, but opposed the investors rights agreement that the fta was and any trilateral agreement with mexico) and by the unions and by the socialists. most of what we feared has come to fruition. so, it's disingenuous to suggest this is some kind of right-wing movement devised by donald trump.
i acknowledge there's not any easy way out. but, i've made my views here clear enough.
i don't think it should be a question of keeping mexico or ditching mexico, but a question of putting in place incentives for them to better themselves.
i'm in favour of some harsh medicine for mexico, but that doesn't have to be permanent.
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-june-4-2018-1.4690285/should-canada-ditch-mexico-and-go-it-alone-with-u-s-on-new-trade-agreement-1.4690431
i'm in favour of some harsh medicine for mexico, but that doesn't have to be permanent.
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-june-4-2018-1.4690285/should-canada-ditch-mexico-and-go-it-alone-with-u-s-on-new-trade-agreement-1.4690431
it seems that i would have to rely on precedent from bc if i were to go forward with this.
i do, in fact, have a puffer from exposure to second-hand smoke as a child.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/pair-handed-8k-after-rights-denied-by-smoking-neighbours-1.809848
i do, in fact, have a puffer from exposure to second-hand smoke as a child.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/pair-handed-8k-after-rights-denied-by-smoking-neighbours-1.809848
ok. i'm sure i'm up now.
15 hours of sleep.
you want to argue this isn't affecting my quality of life, my enjoyment of the property and, ultimately, my health? despite popular misconceptions to the contrary, the law is on my side here; i have all of the rights, all of the rules and all of the social norms on my side. smoking is not a right; that's an insult to the concept of rights.
it doesn't matter if you "believe" in rights or not. it matters what a judge rules. laws are not subject to personal beliefs, they're objective rules that everybody has to follow. and, it doesn't matter if you "believe" in the science underlying the action or not, either.
i don't believe in beliefs.
it's far easier for me to go after the property owners than it is to go after this woman, who appears to be a legit fucking dunce, but if i don't win the case against the landlord, i'm going to have to take her to the human rights board, directly. that's going to be time consuming, and it's going to drag on for a long time. but, somebody needs to compensate me for this rights infringement.
my understanding of the law is that there's two layers, here: the tenant-landlord layer & the human rights layer. i believe that the way the law is meant to operate on the tenant-landlord level is for me to sue the landlord, and for the landlord to recover costs by suing the other tenant, in turn (perhaps in small claims court, for negligence). but, if that fails, i'm absolutely planning to take her to human rights court and making her pay for her behaviour.
smoking inside an apartment building is no longer acceptable behaviour in the 21st century, and we all need to stand up for our rights to ensure people aren't getting away with it. i'd encourage everybody to utilize the tools available to them to crack down on inside smoking and get smokers out of residential areas and into the bars, where they belong.
15 hours of sleep.
you want to argue this isn't affecting my quality of life, my enjoyment of the property and, ultimately, my health? despite popular misconceptions to the contrary, the law is on my side here; i have all of the rights, all of the rules and all of the social norms on my side. smoking is not a right; that's an insult to the concept of rights.
it doesn't matter if you "believe" in rights or not. it matters what a judge rules. laws are not subject to personal beliefs, they're objective rules that everybody has to follow. and, it doesn't matter if you "believe" in the science underlying the action or not, either.
i don't believe in beliefs.
it's far easier for me to go after the property owners than it is to go after this woman, who appears to be a legit fucking dunce, but if i don't win the case against the landlord, i'm going to have to take her to the human rights board, directly. that's going to be time consuming, and it's going to drag on for a long time. but, somebody needs to compensate me for this rights infringement.
my understanding of the law is that there's two layers, here: the tenant-landlord layer & the human rights layer. i believe that the way the law is meant to operate on the tenant-landlord level is for me to sue the landlord, and for the landlord to recover costs by suing the other tenant, in turn (perhaps in small claims court, for negligence). but, if that fails, i'm absolutely planning to take her to human rights court and making her pay for her behaviour.
smoking inside an apartment building is no longer acceptable behaviour in the 21st century, and we all need to stand up for our rights to ensure people aren't getting away with it. i'd encourage everybody to utilize the tools available to them to crack down on inside smoking and get smokers out of residential areas and into the bars, where they belong.
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
the secondhand smoke knocked me out cold again this morning, this time for twelve hours; splitting headache, sore threat, no energy & hot rage - i was unable to do anything but sleep.
it still smells disgusting in here, and i still feel terrible, but i think she's gone for the night, so i need to take advantage of it to try and finish up to the hookup, between coughs and wheezes. i'll have to fill that ventolin prescription next time i'm out.
a part of the problem is the weather. despite the fact that the windows are open and the fans are running, i'm not getting any circulation. we should be back to normal temperatures again on thursday. let's hope it stays nice and hot. this cold weather is depressing...
it still smells disgusting in here, and i still feel terrible, but i think she's gone for the night, so i need to take advantage of it to try and finish up to the hookup, between coughs and wheezes. i'll have to fill that ventolin prescription next time i'm out.
a part of the problem is the weather. despite the fact that the windows are open and the fans are running, i'm not getting any circulation. we should be back to normal temperatures again on thursday. let's hope it stays nice and hot. this cold weather is depressing...
i know i sound like a broken record.
but, there's a big difference between saying the conservatives are running at 38% and saying they're running at 35% - regardless of where the ndp is.
i think the danger inherent here is actually that there's a shy liberal effect, and with the media coverage, it's not impossible. the only way that ford is going to win is if that undecided vote goes to the liberals. it's in two days. why haven't they committed to the ndp yet?
if most of that 10% goes ndp. there's an ndp majority. if most of it goes to the liberals, it's a conservative majority - unless it's distributed almost impossibly well.
so, i'm less concerned about where the tories are here and more concerned about the softness of the ndp vote.
but, there's a big difference between saying the conservatives are running at 38% and saying they're running at 35% - regardless of where the ndp is.
i think the danger inherent here is actually that there's a shy liberal effect, and with the media coverage, it's not impossible. the only way that ford is going to win is if that undecided vote goes to the liberals. it's in two days. why haven't they committed to the ndp yet?
if most of that 10% goes ndp. there's an ndp majority. if most of it goes to the liberals, it's a conservative majority - unless it's distributed almost impossibly well.
so, i'm less concerned about where the tories are here and more concerned about the softness of the ndp vote.
the liberals did not propose a proportional representation system, or an mmp system, but an av - that is, ranked ballots.
the ndp, however, has long proposed proportional representation - and lost several referenda on the topic.
sadly, many journalists in the media were unable to understand the differences in the party proposals, and this created a confused electorate that thought voting liberal would lead to pr. but, that was never actually promoted or presented in any remote way by anybody in the liberal party.
http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/proportional-representation-is-great-for-unelectable-apparatchiks-jean-chretien-says
the ndp, however, has long proposed proportional representation - and lost several referenda on the topic.
sadly, many journalists in the media were unable to understand the differences in the party proposals, and this created a confused electorate that thought voting liberal would lead to pr. but, that was never actually promoted or presented in any remote way by anybody in the liberal party.
http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/proportional-representation-is-great-for-unelectable-apparatchiks-jean-chretien-says
yeah, but that doesn't mean turnout overall is up, it means more people are voting early.
if turnout is high, it's probably going to help the ndp.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4253292/advance-voter-turnout-high/
if turnout is high, it's probably going to help the ndp.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4253292/advance-voter-turnout-high/
this is probably my final analysis of the polling in the upcoming election.
first, let us acknowledge that there has been a deficit of quality polling, and i'm less confident than i was in previous elections as a consequence of it. the aggregates are badly polluted with bad data, and the models are using poorly thought out approaches. it appears that the primary idea in this election is going to be a 20 point shift between the liberals and the ndp, and near stasis in the conservative vote. a swing model based on aggregating data is designed for small proportional changes and is going to completely fail at understanding how this is going to work with such a large shift between two parties.
what the models are going to do is apply the shift everywhere; if they're very good, they may frame a little, but they're all going to miss the point. you should not expect twenty point swings from the liberals to the ndp in every riding. there are plenty of rural ridings where the liberals were barely running at 20 in the first place. rather, what you should expect is minimal swing in rural ridings and exaggerated swings in urban ridings. so, you should expect little change where it doesn't matter - seats conservatives always win anyways - and 30+ percent shifts in downtown toronto.
if the liberals & ndp were both running in the high 20s, we'd have a nightmare scenario where liberal seats turn blue on a 15-20 point swing in the urban centres. but, the propaganda was too effective: we're rather looking at 30+ percent swings, and that should be enough to prevent the conservatives from making gains much of anywhere at all.
so, while it's dangerous to look at the data from a distance and conclude the ndp & liberals will simply switch places in the legislature, the balance of evidence suggests pretty much that. at this point, i expect the ndp to win almost all of the seats in toronto and most of the seats in the 905, as well as the urban seats in the southwest and potentially a few upsets in the rural southwest. but, exact numbers are going to depend on turnout.
the liberals appear to be polling strongly in a few unexpected places, and it may be exposing a new base. they've always done well in ottawa and will likely keep a few seats there. but, i think they're going to keep a few seats around the waterloo area, as well. these are the places where the new economy has asserted itself strongest, and the places where the liberals will need to rebuild from if they want to retake toronto.
this is my prediction:
1) conservatives: i think they'll come in under 35% of the vote, and that should be good for about 35 seats - all the seats they have right now, and a couple more around brampton, + the odd fluke.
2) ndp: i think they'll come in pushing 40% of the vote, but not quite. that should be good for at least 70 seats - all the ones they have now, and at least 50 of the ones the liberals have now.
3) liberals: they're going to beat the models, but it's not clear by how much. it would be absurdly optimistic to suggest they'll get to 25%, but i do think they'll beat 20%. and, i can come up with at least 10 seats they should be able to hang on to.
4) the greens could win a seat, too, but it doesn't look like their vote is going to hit 5% province wide. if they win the seat, they could be a factor in four years.
so, something like the following is plausible:
ndp: 38%, 76 seats
conservatives: 33%, 35 seats
liberals: 23%, 12 seats
greens: 4%, 1 seat
first, let us acknowledge that there has been a deficit of quality polling, and i'm less confident than i was in previous elections as a consequence of it. the aggregates are badly polluted with bad data, and the models are using poorly thought out approaches. it appears that the primary idea in this election is going to be a 20 point shift between the liberals and the ndp, and near stasis in the conservative vote. a swing model based on aggregating data is designed for small proportional changes and is going to completely fail at understanding how this is going to work with such a large shift between two parties.
what the models are going to do is apply the shift everywhere; if they're very good, they may frame a little, but they're all going to miss the point. you should not expect twenty point swings from the liberals to the ndp in every riding. there are plenty of rural ridings where the liberals were barely running at 20 in the first place. rather, what you should expect is minimal swing in rural ridings and exaggerated swings in urban ridings. so, you should expect little change where it doesn't matter - seats conservatives always win anyways - and 30+ percent shifts in downtown toronto.
if the liberals & ndp were both running in the high 20s, we'd have a nightmare scenario where liberal seats turn blue on a 15-20 point swing in the urban centres. but, the propaganda was too effective: we're rather looking at 30+ percent swings, and that should be enough to prevent the conservatives from making gains much of anywhere at all.
so, while it's dangerous to look at the data from a distance and conclude the ndp & liberals will simply switch places in the legislature, the balance of evidence suggests pretty much that. at this point, i expect the ndp to win almost all of the seats in toronto and most of the seats in the 905, as well as the urban seats in the southwest and potentially a few upsets in the rural southwest. but, exact numbers are going to depend on turnout.
the liberals appear to be polling strongly in a few unexpected places, and it may be exposing a new base. they've always done well in ottawa and will likely keep a few seats there. but, i think they're going to keep a few seats around the waterloo area, as well. these are the places where the new economy has asserted itself strongest, and the places where the liberals will need to rebuild from if they want to retake toronto.
this is my prediction:
1) conservatives: i think they'll come in under 35% of the vote, and that should be good for about 35 seats - all the seats they have right now, and a couple more around brampton, + the odd fluke.
2) ndp: i think they'll come in pushing 40% of the vote, but not quite. that should be good for at least 70 seats - all the ones they have now, and at least 50 of the ones the liberals have now.
3) liberals: they're going to beat the models, but it's not clear by how much. it would be absurdly optimistic to suggest they'll get to 25%, but i do think they'll beat 20%. and, i can come up with at least 10 seats they should be able to hang on to.
4) the greens could win a seat, too, but it doesn't look like their vote is going to hit 5% province wide. if they win the seat, they could be a factor in four years.
so, something like the following is plausible:
ndp: 38%, 76 seats
conservatives: 33%, 35 seats
liberals: 23%, 12 seats
greens: 4%, 1 seat
it was bad enough on the evening of the 4th that it knocked me out cold.
now, i'm going to have close the windows for the next several hours due to the rain and shiver under the influence of unnecessary air conditioning and powerful second-hand drugs.
i'm not going to sit here, shit-faced on drugs i don't want, trying to sort through data. what a sad proposition. rather, i'm going to hide under the covers until the rain passes. which means i'm going to lose another day. sadly.
i'll be glad to get the fuck out of here.
now, i'm going to have close the windows for the next several hours due to the rain and shiver under the influence of unnecessary air conditioning and powerful second-hand drugs.
i'm not going to sit here, shit-faced on drugs i don't want, trying to sort through data. what a sad proposition. rather, i'm going to hide under the covers until the rain passes. which means i'm going to lose another day. sadly.
i'll be glad to get the fuck out of here.
Monday, June 4, 2018
once again: i don't have depression.
i'm not a depressed person.
i don't need treatment for depression.
what i have is a social disorder that makes me exceedingly agitated around fucking idiots, and unable to deal with people. i get angry when i'm agitated in this way and can potentially get violent.
i just need to be left alone.
and i can't deal with this fucking pothead. i'm on the brink of going down there and beating the shit of her.
i'm not a depressed person.
i don't need treatment for depression.
what i have is a social disorder that makes me exceedingly agitated around fucking idiots, and unable to deal with people. i get angry when i'm agitated in this way and can potentially get violent.
i just need to be left alone.
and i can't deal with this fucking pothead. i'm on the brink of going down there and beating the shit of her.
i mean, this is what i had to say about the last american election: it was clear that the polling put clinton ahead, but just as clear that trump was going to steal the election. so, i predicted that clinton would win if the polls were fair, but stated clearly that trump was going to win because i knew they weren't.
it's not nearly as clear that ford has the power to do this, but there's clearly something fishy afoot.
it's not nearly as clear that ford has the power to do this, but there's clearly something fishy afoot.
there is of course also a possibility that these companies are all paid off and pushing fake numbers to split the vote.
i have to read the data as it is, i can't imagine it says something else.
but, if the liberals come back from the dead at the last minute, we should be pointing fingers at the pollsters for manipulating data to split the vote.
i have to read the data as it is, i can't imagine it says something else.
but, if the liberals come back from the dead at the last minute, we should be pointing fingers at the pollsters for manipulating data to split the vote.
so, what's the narrative here?
it seems like the tory media intended to do the following:
1) attack wynne.
2) prop up the ndp.
together, this would split the vote, and allow the conservatives to win in ridings they normally aren't competitive in.
but, what has happened instead is that this has backfired - the liberal vote has moved entirely to the ndp, and we're going to get an ndp majority.
maybe a huge one.
that said...
i've seen some articles where ford is criticizing the voting machines, and this is often done to deflect an attempt to cheat. if we start seeing the conservatives win in downtown toronto...
it seems like the tory media intended to do the following:
1) attack wynne.
2) prop up the ndp.
together, this would split the vote, and allow the conservatives to win in ridings they normally aren't competitive in.
but, what has happened instead is that this has backfired - the liberal vote has moved entirely to the ndp, and we're going to get an ndp majority.
maybe a huge one.
that said...
i've seen some articles where ford is criticizing the voting machines, and this is often done to deflect an attempt to cheat. if we start seeing the conservatives win in downtown toronto...
forum is always sketchy.
but, those numbers aren't very different than what was projected for the pcs four years ago, and in the end they only got 30 seats. due to systemic bias in telephone polling, you always need to take the pcs down to the bottom of the error bar and then some, so they're probably running around 34-35.
the big difference is movement from the liberals to the ndp, and it seems to be really monolithic. the numbers in the 905 - which is where the conservatives were supposed to win seats - are most surprising. with a decent sample size, and some consistency, it's starting to look the ndp could be making a huge breakthrough.
i understand that the firms are using likely voter data, but they're undoing their own numbers. why are so many liberals claiming they'll vote ndp if they aren't going to?
again: despite the commentary, i'm looking at this and not seeing any good reason to think the conservatives will win more than 40 seats.
the ndp could be on track to win 80 seats.
but, those numbers aren't very different than what was projected for the pcs four years ago, and in the end they only got 30 seats. due to systemic bias in telephone polling, you always need to take the pcs down to the bottom of the error bar and then some, so they're probably running around 34-35.
the big difference is movement from the liberals to the ndp, and it seems to be really monolithic. the numbers in the 905 - which is where the conservatives were supposed to win seats - are most surprising. with a decent sample size, and some consistency, it's starting to look the ndp could be making a huge breakthrough.
i understand that the firms are using likely voter data, but they're undoing their own numbers. why are so many liberals claiming they'll vote ndp if they aren't going to?
again: despite the commentary, i'm looking at this and not seeing any good reason to think the conservatives will win more than 40 seats.
the ndp could be on track to win 80 seats.
there she goes again.
9:00 am on a monday morning. high as a kite. place smells like a dead skunk's asshole. it's truly absolutely revolting. thankfully, i've got some air flow this morning.
i need to reiterate that the reason i can't just deal with this is that i need to be recording in here, eventually, and i need to be clear-headed to do it. i know there's a popular mythology that musicians do drugs in the studio, but it's just completely wrong - it's a complete myth, a complete fantasy.
the ability to ensure sobriety when recording is paramount; this place is worthless to me if i can't do that.
9:00 am on a monday morning. high as a kite. place smells like a dead skunk's asshole. it's truly absolutely revolting. thankfully, i've got some air flow this morning.
i need to reiterate that the reason i can't just deal with this is that i need to be recording in here, eventually, and i need to be clear-headed to do it. i know there's a popular mythology that musicians do drugs in the studio, but it's just completely wrong - it's a complete myth, a complete fantasy.
the ability to ensure sobriety when recording is paramount; this place is worthless to me if i can't do that.
i'm a little slow to get started today, but i'm back at it, now.
i've got a breeze blowing directly in, which is nice. this apartment only has windows on one side, so i only get a breeze when the wind blows one way. so, that's helped with ventilation. the stench has come up a few times, but i'm not feeling any effects from it just right now.
i'm going to lose the day, but hopefully i'll be past this tomorrow.
i've got a breeze blowing directly in, which is nice. this apartment only has windows on one side, so i only get a breeze when the wind blows one way. so, that's helped with ventilation. the stench has come up a few times, but i'm not feeling any effects from it just right now.
i'm going to lose the day, but hopefully i'll be past this tomorrow.
well, this is less contentious than wynne's statement, but equally less realistic, as well.
i am hoping he wins this seat, but my vote is more about helping the party with funding next time around.
i'll be clear that my riding is probably going to go ndp by a large margin. if local polling is to be believed, the greens may actually beat the liberals in this region - harsh considering they won two elections ago.
i was worried about ford controlling the muslim vote here, they are running muslims in all of the ridings around here, but there doesn't appear to be any actual evidence that this is happening. or, perhaps i overestimated the size of the muslim minority, here.
https://www.guelphtoday.com/local-news/mike-schreiner-says-best-way-to-hold-ndp-or-pcs-accountable-is-to-elect-green-mpps-942770
i am hoping he wins this seat, but my vote is more about helping the party with funding next time around.
i'll be clear that my riding is probably going to go ndp by a large margin. if local polling is to be believed, the greens may actually beat the liberals in this region - harsh considering they won two elections ago.
i was worried about ford controlling the muslim vote here, they are running muslims in all of the ridings around here, but there doesn't appear to be any actual evidence that this is happening. or, perhaps i overestimated the size of the muslim minority, here.
https://www.guelphtoday.com/local-news/mike-schreiner-says-best-way-to-hold-ndp-or-pcs-accountable-is-to-elect-green-mpps-942770
the idea is that the best thing i can do is help the greens oppose the ndp on the left. if the ndp are as.....disappointing.....as i expect, the liberals will gain a lot of support back. but, that opens up a space for the greens on the left of the ndp.
i've written this essay elsewhere; ontario is deindustrializing, and i follow malatesta in his view that workers really have the same interests as capital, which we've seen in the ndp's behaviour over and over, so we need a new concept of the left - and i think it's a libertarian left that seeks distributive justice over things like food and land, seeking to put them in common, while abolishing obsolete concepts like currency. in some ways, it's a retreat to a peasant left, but that's why it's important to ensure it's paired with support for automation and green energy production.
i don't think there's any future in workers politics, when unionized workers are such a small percentage of the population. and, as mentioned, it's hard to get excited about standing up for people that are making products that are wrecking the planet.
we'll have to see what this ndp government looks like, but i expect it to pivot to the right fairly quickly, and for it to come out of it's mandate seeming very right-wing. liberals might be scared right now; they shouldn't be, as the ndp would just be giving them their voters back. if the liberals are going to pretend to be the ndp, voters will eventually vote ndp; as we saw with mulcair, when the ndp pretends to be the liberals, voters just vote liberal. it's a nicely symmetrical truth.
don't get me started on symmetry (or the lack thereof). alas...
but i keep reminding you that i'm not a liberal. not technically, anyways. and, i want to prop up an option on the left, if the ndp insist on hugging the centre.
i've written this essay elsewhere; ontario is deindustrializing, and i follow malatesta in his view that workers really have the same interests as capital, which we've seen in the ndp's behaviour over and over, so we need a new concept of the left - and i think it's a libertarian left that seeks distributive justice over things like food and land, seeking to put them in common, while abolishing obsolete concepts like currency. in some ways, it's a retreat to a peasant left, but that's why it's important to ensure it's paired with support for automation and green energy production.
i don't think there's any future in workers politics, when unionized workers are such a small percentage of the population. and, as mentioned, it's hard to get excited about standing up for people that are making products that are wrecking the planet.
we'll have to see what this ndp government looks like, but i expect it to pivot to the right fairly quickly, and for it to come out of it's mandate seeming very right-wing. liberals might be scared right now; they shouldn't be, as the ndp would just be giving them their voters back. if the liberals are going to pretend to be the ndp, voters will eventually vote ndp; as we saw with mulcair, when the ndp pretends to be the liberals, voters just vote liberal. it's a nicely symmetrical truth.
don't get me started on symmetry (or the lack thereof). alas...
but i keep reminding you that i'm not a liberal. not technically, anyways. and, i want to prop up an option on the left, if the ndp insist on hugging the centre.
so, i've made up my mind on this.
i'm willing to accept an ndp win, but i'm not willing to vote for them because i think they're running a dishonest campaign; i'm also of the view after watching this campaign that the liberals need a time-out, and i'm not willing to vote for them, either. i still prefer the liberal platform. so, i'm left with the choice of whether i want to vote green or not.
i've decided that i do, because i expect them to play a role in the next election, and the candidate here doesn't seem to be one of those goofy libertarian green capitalism pro-market doofuses - she's the kind of green party candidate i'm willing to support.
i like the idea of abolishing catholic schools, too.
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/jarvis-the-green-party-is-finally-invited
i'm willing to accept an ndp win, but i'm not willing to vote for them because i think they're running a dishonest campaign; i'm also of the view after watching this campaign that the liberals need a time-out, and i'm not willing to vote for them, either. i still prefer the liberal platform. so, i'm left with the choice of whether i want to vote green or not.
i've decided that i do, because i expect them to play a role in the next election, and the candidate here doesn't seem to be one of those goofy libertarian green capitalism pro-market doofuses - she's the kind of green party candidate i'm willing to support.
i like the idea of abolishing catholic schools, too.
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/jarvis-the-green-party-is-finally-invited
racial profiling is not something that happens when you have individual police officers breaking ranks and being racist.
rather, racial profiling is something that happens when you have police departments that train police officers to treat minorities differently than the majority.
and, the solution has to go to the very core of the training.
cops aren't accidentally racist. cops are trained to be racist.
rather, racial profiling is something that happens when you have police departments that train police officers to treat minorities differently than the majority.
and, the solution has to go to the very core of the training.
cops aren't accidentally racist. cops are trained to be racist.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
she's been chain smoking by herself for over 8 hours.
i just don't understand who thinks that's a good night. if i were her, i'd be so tired and drained and depressed that i'd feel like i want to kill myself.
and, if i didn't have the window open, i'd be passed out like a fucking heroin addict - from the smoke at the end of her joints.
again: she must have spent $100 tonight to stare at the wall by herself. it's just incomprehensibly stupid.
i just don't understand who thinks that's a good night. if i were her, i'd be so tired and drained and depressed that i'd feel like i want to kill myself.
and, if i didn't have the window open, i'd be passed out like a fucking heroin addict - from the smoke at the end of her joints.
again: she must have spent $100 tonight to stare at the wall by herself. it's just incomprehensibly stupid.
the marijuana chain-smoking has indeed returned as of a few hours ago, and i'm at this point sure that i can tie the fact that i'm tired and sore to it. i've had a few plumes come up, and it's just got me feeling disorientated and unpleasant.
again: this is terrible pot. it's like taking valium, it's not a fun high at all - i just want to sleep another ten hours.
but, i'm going to drink a lot of coffee instead and try to get back to work.
again: this is terrible pot. it's like taking valium, it's not a fun high at all - i just want to sleep another ten hours.
but, i'm going to drink a lot of coffee instead and try to get back to work.
so, what's my projection for an ndp government? what do i think it's going to be like?
well, i'm not concerned about over spending, so much as i'm potentially concerned about cuts. but, i would also expect those cuts to mostly be transferred elsewhere. it would be more like a shift in priorities. and, it's probably not going to affect me much of any way or the other. it will be less money on this particular healthcare priority and more money on this other one, instead, sort of thing. i just hope the people that are affected have done their homework.
it's hard to take her seriously on her plan to buy back hydro one; i wouldn't expect that to happen. she may come up with some middle-point in between. if she does, that won't reduce rates. so, what's the point in doing it? see, this is an empty ideological thing, and while i might agree with her in principle, i don't agree with prioritizing it. and, unfortunately, i think she's misled a lot of people into thinking that buying back the lines will reduce costs, when it won't. ending time of use pricing is not going to reduce my hydro bill by 30%, either - it would be more like 2%, giving that i'm paying more than twice as much for delivery than i am for electricity. so, is she going to dictate terms to the board? it's supposed to be independent. maybe that itself is something that should change - maybe the board should come under stronger democratic oversight. but, if she follows through on her plan to end the refinancing, my hydro bill is going to increase. well, the upside is that i have $200 worth of credits, so it'll be a while before i pay anything. yet, how many people are going to vote ndp and then freak out when their hydro goes back up when she ends the refinancing? if you're voting for either horwath or ford to cut your electricity, you're going to be rightly pissed off in four years because neither of them will succeed in doing so. in the end, i'll be surprised if she does much of anything substantive on this file at all, because she's going to realize that the plans she's presented, while popular amongst low information voters, are going to harm her own re-election prospects if she actually follows through with them. so, i don't expect that an ndp government will actually be much different on hydro at all.
her platform has higher increases in social assistance than the liberals are promising, but the liberals are promising fairly substantive increases, as well. i'm skeptical that this gets changed, in the end - i think she'll probably follow through with what the liberals have already budgeted.
she says she'll let the gai experiment work it's way though, but i would expect the ndp to have a more producerist approach to labour, and not be happy about a gai, on ideological grounds. it was never totally clear if the liberals were going to actually do this or not (it came on the recommendation of a conservative senator, who is seeing it in negative income tax terms), but i think the ndp will probably kill it - and spend the money on job training, instead. this is a situation where the liberals are maybe a little more forward thinking in terms of understanding the future trajectory of the economy and are interested in protecting class interests through the welfare state, while the ndp are maybe stuck in backwards calvinist-style thinking that preaches ideas about personal salvation through hard work. unfortunately, a lot of voters may prefer that. but, as an anarchist advocate of positive freedom, this is the place where i break with workers parties, and maybe find them a little bit scary.
i think the question of the ndp's interest in environmental sustainability is a question mark, as they tend to focus more on pocket-book issues. if they win this election outright, they may argue this is one of the reasons for it. so, they may have less of an interest in pushing recycling programs or green bin programs, arguing it's not worth the money, and unpopular with voters. that's the other side of the ndp: they're a populist party. what that's going to do is shift the responsibility on to the individual, and open up a need for better activism. that might be a net benefit in the long run. if we're lucky, the green party wins their seat in guelph and gets a platform to keep them honest.
on the drug plan & dental plan, people are likely to be disappointed by what actually gets implemented.
broadly speaking, it's not going to be a catastrophe. i'm sure i'll find reasons to criticize them and reasons to praise them. and, while i might prefer the liberal plan for the reasons i've outlined, i'm not likely to find myself in deep opposition to an ndp government, either.
well, i'm not concerned about over spending, so much as i'm potentially concerned about cuts. but, i would also expect those cuts to mostly be transferred elsewhere. it would be more like a shift in priorities. and, it's probably not going to affect me much of any way or the other. it will be less money on this particular healthcare priority and more money on this other one, instead, sort of thing. i just hope the people that are affected have done their homework.
it's hard to take her seriously on her plan to buy back hydro one; i wouldn't expect that to happen. she may come up with some middle-point in between. if she does, that won't reduce rates. so, what's the point in doing it? see, this is an empty ideological thing, and while i might agree with her in principle, i don't agree with prioritizing it. and, unfortunately, i think she's misled a lot of people into thinking that buying back the lines will reduce costs, when it won't. ending time of use pricing is not going to reduce my hydro bill by 30%, either - it would be more like 2%, giving that i'm paying more than twice as much for delivery than i am for electricity. so, is she going to dictate terms to the board? it's supposed to be independent. maybe that itself is something that should change - maybe the board should come under stronger democratic oversight. but, if she follows through on her plan to end the refinancing, my hydro bill is going to increase. well, the upside is that i have $200 worth of credits, so it'll be a while before i pay anything. yet, how many people are going to vote ndp and then freak out when their hydro goes back up when she ends the refinancing? if you're voting for either horwath or ford to cut your electricity, you're going to be rightly pissed off in four years because neither of them will succeed in doing so. in the end, i'll be surprised if she does much of anything substantive on this file at all, because she's going to realize that the plans she's presented, while popular amongst low information voters, are going to harm her own re-election prospects if she actually follows through with them. so, i don't expect that an ndp government will actually be much different on hydro at all.
her platform has higher increases in social assistance than the liberals are promising, but the liberals are promising fairly substantive increases, as well. i'm skeptical that this gets changed, in the end - i think she'll probably follow through with what the liberals have already budgeted.
she says she'll let the gai experiment work it's way though, but i would expect the ndp to have a more producerist approach to labour, and not be happy about a gai, on ideological grounds. it was never totally clear if the liberals were going to actually do this or not (it came on the recommendation of a conservative senator, who is seeing it in negative income tax terms), but i think the ndp will probably kill it - and spend the money on job training, instead. this is a situation where the liberals are maybe a little more forward thinking in terms of understanding the future trajectory of the economy and are interested in protecting class interests through the welfare state, while the ndp are maybe stuck in backwards calvinist-style thinking that preaches ideas about personal salvation through hard work. unfortunately, a lot of voters may prefer that. but, as an anarchist advocate of positive freedom, this is the place where i break with workers parties, and maybe find them a little bit scary.
i think the question of the ndp's interest in environmental sustainability is a question mark, as they tend to focus more on pocket-book issues. if they win this election outright, they may argue this is one of the reasons for it. so, they may have less of an interest in pushing recycling programs or green bin programs, arguing it's not worth the money, and unpopular with voters. that's the other side of the ndp: they're a populist party. what that's going to do is shift the responsibility on to the individual, and open up a need for better activism. that might be a net benefit in the long run. if we're lucky, the green party wins their seat in guelph and gets a platform to keep them honest.
on the drug plan & dental plan, people are likely to be disappointed by what actually gets implemented.
broadly speaking, it's not going to be a catastrophe. i'm sure i'll find reasons to criticize them and reasons to praise them. and, while i might prefer the liberal plan for the reasons i've outlined, i'm not likely to find myself in deep opposition to an ndp government, either.
i think the best outcome for the liberals is probably an ndp majority, as it gives them time to prepare themselves as an alternative to the opposition for the next election. i don't see why ontarians would want to vote for the conservatives in four years, if they've rejected them this vehemently, once again. if the ndp fail, we're going to swing back to the liberals, not to the conservatives.
and, it's hard to believe how the ndp could hold any majority it has, four years from now: meaning you're looking at an almost certain return to influence within four years.
as i've stated repeatedly: it's very hard for the conservatives to win elections in this province. the demographics & the geography are both very much against them. if this massive exercise in groupthink in toronto actually happens, it could be suggestive that we're looking at a future where the ndp & liberals switch back and forth from government to third party, while the conservatives remain forever stuck in opposition.
the conservatives still have a strong angle, in their appeal to right-leaning ethnic voters in the gta, but they appear to have squandered it this time around, and, at this point, there's not a lot of evidence that they want to pick this angle up. if they insist on being the party of white rural ontarians, they're going to remain in opposition forever.
and, it's hard to believe how the ndp could hold any majority it has, four years from now: meaning you're looking at an almost certain return to influence within four years.
as i've stated repeatedly: it's very hard for the conservatives to win elections in this province. the demographics & the geography are both very much against them. if this massive exercise in groupthink in toronto actually happens, it could be suggestive that we're looking at a future where the ndp & liberals switch back and forth from government to third party, while the conservatives remain forever stuck in opposition.
the conservatives still have a strong angle, in their appeal to right-leaning ethnic voters in the gta, but they appear to have squandered it this time around, and, at this point, there's not a lot of evidence that they want to pick this angle up. if they insist on being the party of white rural ontarians, they're going to remain in opposition forever.
no, i need to make this point clear, because i think a lot of canadians don't get it, either.
canada is a three-party+ system, meaning it can have fourth or even fifth parties during crisis points. i've argued that the federal system is most stable in a four-party configuration, with parties on both the right and the left. today, the federal system is in a three-party state, but could be in a fracture point (as there is no substantive left, and the federal liberals seem to want to move to the right). ontario has traditionally had three parties.
in a three party system, you have the following:
1) a government
2) an opposition
3) a third party, that is primarily an alternative to the opposition, but can also act as a wildcard in minority scenarios.
what we're seeing right now is this system working: voters want to vote out the government, but don't support the opposition, and so are voting in the third party. the same thing happened in the 2015 federal election. this is not "weird", it's the fundamental aspect of our system that defines it.
so, what wynne is pointing out is simply that the liberals are accepting their role as the third party in the next legislature - which will be as a wildcard in the case of minority, and to provide an alternative to the opposition in the case of majority.
you can assign motives to that, and i agree that it's a tactical shift, but i think it's silly to suggest some kind of psychologically manipulative ploy.
realistically speaking, would the liberals support an ndp budget? they probably don't want a snap election....
canada is a three-party+ system, meaning it can have fourth or even fifth parties during crisis points. i've argued that the federal system is most stable in a four-party configuration, with parties on both the right and the left. today, the federal system is in a three-party state, but could be in a fracture point (as there is no substantive left, and the federal liberals seem to want to move to the right). ontario has traditionally had three parties.
in a three party system, you have the following:
1) a government
2) an opposition
3) a third party, that is primarily an alternative to the opposition, but can also act as a wildcard in minority scenarios.
what we're seeing right now is this system working: voters want to vote out the government, but don't support the opposition, and so are voting in the third party. the same thing happened in the 2015 federal election. this is not "weird", it's the fundamental aspect of our system that defines it.
so, what wynne is pointing out is simply that the liberals are accepting their role as the third party in the next legislature - which will be as a wildcard in the case of minority, and to provide an alternative to the opposition in the case of majority.
you can assign motives to that, and i agree that it's a tactical shift, but i think it's silly to suggest some kind of psychologically manipulative ploy.
realistically speaking, would the liberals support an ndp budget? they probably don't want a snap election....
so, if you already think that wynne is some kind of evil villain, you're of course going to interpret her premature concession as some kind of a nefarious plot.
i think it's just a realistic analysis of the situation: her internal polling indicated to her that the liberals will be in a third-party role in the next government. canada doesn't have a two-party system; third parties have defined purposes and roles. and, third parties run elections differently than first or second parties do.
i think she should have run as a third party from the start - i made that point clear.
do i think it will make liberals more likely to vote conservative to block the ndp? well, that doesn't actually make any sense. not in the 905. not in the 416. what policies do the conservatives support that liberals would prefer over the ndp? and, if you preferred ford over horwath, why are you still intending to vote for wynne days before the election? the liberals have far more in common with the ndp than the conservatives, nowadays - partly because the ndp have moved a lot to the right. this is logic that's twenty years out of date. that said, there may be some lingering liberal support that's still voting against bob rae, but you'd think it's pretty muted, at this point - and likely not enough to matter much of anywhere. i'm not buying into that, and i don't think the liberal strategy is that meta - if anything, it's demonstrated itself as fairly shallow.
if i want to read an angle into it, i might suggest that kathleen wynne has come to terms with the benefits of retirement. she turned 65 the other day, you know.
i think it's just a realistic analysis of the situation: her internal polling indicated to her that the liberals will be in a third-party role in the next government. canada doesn't have a two-party system; third parties have defined purposes and roles. and, third parties run elections differently than first or second parties do.
i think she should have run as a third party from the start - i made that point clear.
do i think it will make liberals more likely to vote conservative to block the ndp? well, that doesn't actually make any sense. not in the 905. not in the 416. what policies do the conservatives support that liberals would prefer over the ndp? and, if you preferred ford over horwath, why are you still intending to vote for wynne days before the election? the liberals have far more in common with the ndp than the conservatives, nowadays - partly because the ndp have moved a lot to the right. this is logic that's twenty years out of date. that said, there may be some lingering liberal support that's still voting against bob rae, but you'd think it's pretty muted, at this point - and likely not enough to matter much of anywhere. i'm not buying into that, and i don't think the liberal strategy is that meta - if anything, it's demonstrated itself as fairly shallow.
if i want to read an angle into it, i might suggest that kathleen wynne has come to terms with the benefits of retirement. she turned 65 the other day, you know.
that was an unexpectedly hard crash; i just slept for ten hours and woke up with a sore neck. i'm suspicious of the weather, but we'll see how i feel in a bit.
i think i can get done may before i get something to eat in the morning.
i smelled some pot this morning when i got up to eat, but it's clear again tonight with a caveat - she seems to have started smoking cigarettes very heavily. so, now it smells like cigarettes instead of marijuana. which is...it's not going to get me stoned, but is it why i'm sore? i dunno. it's also a saturday night, so she may have had somebody over smoking.
i'll also point out that there was again a strong smell of bay leaves this afternoon, which she seems to start burning when somebody complains about the pot. it wasn't me, and i don't think i'm the only complainant at this point.
like i say: i want to get to the hook-up before i start looking for august 1st. that might be tomorrow, might be the next day.
right now, i'm sore and tired after waking up a little after midnight, but the only thing i smell just right now is cigarettes.
i think i can get done may before i get something to eat in the morning.
i smelled some pot this morning when i got up to eat, but it's clear again tonight with a caveat - she seems to have started smoking cigarettes very heavily. so, now it smells like cigarettes instead of marijuana. which is...it's not going to get me stoned, but is it why i'm sore? i dunno. it's also a saturday night, so she may have had somebody over smoking.
i'll also point out that there was again a strong smell of bay leaves this afternoon, which she seems to start burning when somebody complains about the pot. it wasn't me, and i don't think i'm the only complainant at this point.
like i say: i want to get to the hook-up before i start looking for august 1st. that might be tomorrow, might be the next day.
right now, i'm sore and tired after waking up a little after midnight, but the only thing i smell just right now is cigarettes.
Saturday, June 2, 2018
it's not clear at this point whether voting for the liberals will split the vote or even if voting for the ndp will, in the riding you're in.
this is very much the nightmare scenario that critics of strategic voting tend to point to. there is some data suggesting that the ndp are way ahead, but there's data suggesting otherwise as well, and it's fluctuating fairly frequently. we have imperfect methods with small sample sizes and little consistency.
i was analyzing one poll.
and, i think wynne's announcement was actually premature.
my request to horwath & the ndp still stands - be careful. i suppose that also applies to the liberals, but it's a different context. and, to the rest of the electorate, beware: if you want to play this game this year, there's a chance you're going to get burned.
try to find riding polls; do the best research you can, and prepare for the possibility that you might be wrong.
but, keep this in mind, as well - in general, the strategy promoted by critics of strategic voting is to vote with your heart.
there's still four days of polling left to come in.
this is very much the nightmare scenario that critics of strategic voting tend to point to. there is some data suggesting that the ndp are way ahead, but there's data suggesting otherwise as well, and it's fluctuating fairly frequently. we have imperfect methods with small sample sizes and little consistency.
i was analyzing one poll.
and, i think wynne's announcement was actually premature.
my request to horwath & the ndp still stands - be careful. i suppose that also applies to the liberals, but it's a different context. and, to the rest of the electorate, beware: if you want to play this game this year, there's a chance you're going to get burned.
try to find riding polls; do the best research you can, and prepare for the possibility that you might be wrong.
but, keep this in mind, as well - in general, the strategy promoted by critics of strategic voting is to vote with your heart.
there's still four days of polling left to come in.
so, what are we going to do about these tariffs?
well, i guess we'll have to find new markets and new importers, right? perhaps we could take advantage of that ceta that came into force recently. and, i'd still like to see a bilateral agreement with japan.
if america doesn't want to trade with the rest of the world, we can't force them to. but, the rest of the world can increase trade with itself.
well, i guess we'll have to find new markets and new importers, right? perhaps we could take advantage of that ceta that came into force recently. and, i'd still like to see a bilateral agreement with japan.
if america doesn't want to trade with the rest of the world, we can't force them to. but, the rest of the world can increase trade with itself.
and, again: the media seems to think, across the board, that having your votes distributed in the least populous areas makes your vote more efficient.
that's ridiculous.
the guy's own numbers say the ndp are running over 50% in toronto & in southwestern ontario, which together comprise roughly 60 seats. the conservatives may be running higher in more subregions, but these are the most sparsely populated areas and have the least seats.
it's maybe fitting that doug ford's people don't understand what the word 'efficiency' means, but you'd think the pollsters would get it right, even if the media doesn't.
those numbers suggest the most efficient vote is with the ndp.
that's ridiculous.
the guy's own numbers say the ndp are running over 50% in toronto & in southwestern ontario, which together comprise roughly 60 seats. the conservatives may be running higher in more subregions, but these are the most sparsely populated areas and have the least seats.
it's maybe fitting that doug ford's people don't understand what the word 'efficiency' means, but you'd think the pollsters would get it right, even if the media doesn't.
those numbers suggest the most efficient vote is with the ndp.
but, is the idea of toronto flipping clean from red to orange implausible? we're talking 40 seats moving the same way all at once, here. is that kind of mass groupthink realistic?
it might be more expected in quebec. but, we're sibling provinces, upper and lower; it's just a language difference.
and, i think you want to think it's going to happen all at once or not at all - that there's a tipping point where it flips. certainly, wynne has been going out of her way to alienate torontonians, hasn't she?
i've been talking about the liberal base being hard to move, but i've also been talking about it being pragmatic and less tied to ideology. i just didn't want to make that choice for it without seeing any actual data. and, it hasn't moved in a very long time, either. but, if toronto has decided that it can't let ford win, and horwath is the way to do it, it's not so crazy to think the whole city could flip together at the same time, at all.
unprecedented, perhaps. historic. but not crazy.
that would leave wynne with a few seats hanging around outside the 905, and a few in ottawa.
i look forward to seeing more data framed like this. but, again, regardless of what frank says, the ndp should be happy about those numbers.
it might be more expected in quebec. but, we're sibling provinces, upper and lower; it's just a language difference.
and, i think you want to think it's going to happen all at once or not at all - that there's a tipping point where it flips. certainly, wynne has been going out of her way to alienate torontonians, hasn't she?
i've been talking about the liberal base being hard to move, but i've also been talking about it being pragmatic and less tied to ideology. i just didn't want to make that choice for it without seeing any actual data. and, it hasn't moved in a very long time, either. but, if toronto has decided that it can't let ford win, and horwath is the way to do it, it's not so crazy to think the whole city could flip together at the same time, at all.
unprecedented, perhaps. historic. but not crazy.
that would leave wynne with a few seats hanging around outside the 905, and a few in ottawa.
i look forward to seeing more data framed like this. but, again, regardless of what frank says, the ndp should be happy about those numbers.
ok, this has the kind of sampling frames i wanted to see.
the first three frames are not unexpected - and it may even be a bit of good news for the ndp, at the expense of the conservatives. those are powerful numbers for the ndp in ridings they probably weren't expecting to win. they may be benefiting massively from strategic voting, and that's good - nobody thought the liberals could compete here.
i'm going to presume that the grand river valley means the kitchener-waterloo-guelph tricity area, which is an education & technology hub. it's hard to know exactly what that means, but i don't think there's a big surprise on the three-way split, either. if that's right, the liberals could maybe hold some seats there - but it's just a handful of them in play. nor have the liberals been competitive in niagara or hamilton proper for a very long time, either, although 4% seems kind of obscene. and, it's hard to know where niagara starts and the "grand river valley" ends - which is important given the difference between 30 and 4. i'm suspecting small sample sizes, here. nonetheless, if those numbers are even close to right, don't be surprised if the liberals hold some seats on the end of the horseshoe, there. but, none of this is really that earth-shattering - excluding that 4%, which may end up more like 14% in the end. the shape is not surprising.
but, those numbers in halton/peel are hard to comprehend. the races in halton are traditionally conservative-liberal. it's a wealthy suburb of toronto - the kind of place the ndp just don't do well in. peel, on the other hand, is usually an ndp-liberal race. again: combining these together is tricky. it could mean that the conservatives are running away with halton and the ndp are running away with peel, or it could be obscuring closer races in aggregate. what i'm going to say is that this is weird - and that i don't like the way it's presented, as it suggests you're looking at the pcs v the ndp over a large region, when you're probably actually looking at each of them v the liberals separately in two distinct regions - and it's not clear how close it is. frank, man what are you up to?
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_1_2018b.pdf
i don't have any particular rejection of the brampton numbers, but it's only 3-4 seats. brampton is the kind of demographic that would swing from red to blue under ford. and, those numbers are not particularly bad for the liberals in york/durham, either, where there are a couple of conservative strongholds and a couple of conservative/liberal swing ridings.
at this point, after the first eight frames, this doesn't look like a weird election, and the seat count doesn't look likely to flip much. what's different here is the next two frames...
i accidentally cut the bottom off, but the next two frames are central and suburban toronto and those are powerful numbers that are suggestive of an ndp majority. i don't know what frank is smoking, suggesting otherwise. if the ndp can poll close to 50% over toronto in the end, that's suggestive of a clean sweep - which is 35-40 seats. that would be a near complete absorption of the liberal party by the ndp.
in the east & ottawa, again, the numbers are not exactly surprising. it's not clear what is ottawa and what is east, but the conservatives always dominate the rural east and the liberals usually do well in ottawa. with the liberals running over 30, it might suggest that they may lose a seat or two to the conservatives on the edges of the city.
i've been saying the same thing over and over again - this is about the 416.
and, despite what frank says, if those numbers are correct, you'd be looking at something like the following:
ndp ~65
conservatives ~30
liberals ~15
the first three frames are not unexpected - and it may even be a bit of good news for the ndp, at the expense of the conservatives. those are powerful numbers for the ndp in ridings they probably weren't expecting to win. they may be benefiting massively from strategic voting, and that's good - nobody thought the liberals could compete here.
i'm going to presume that the grand river valley means the kitchener-waterloo-guelph tricity area, which is an education & technology hub. it's hard to know exactly what that means, but i don't think there's a big surprise on the three-way split, either. if that's right, the liberals could maybe hold some seats there - but it's just a handful of them in play. nor have the liberals been competitive in niagara or hamilton proper for a very long time, either, although 4% seems kind of obscene. and, it's hard to know where niagara starts and the "grand river valley" ends - which is important given the difference between 30 and 4. i'm suspecting small sample sizes, here. nonetheless, if those numbers are even close to right, don't be surprised if the liberals hold some seats on the end of the horseshoe, there. but, none of this is really that earth-shattering - excluding that 4%, which may end up more like 14% in the end. the shape is not surprising.
but, those numbers in halton/peel are hard to comprehend. the races in halton are traditionally conservative-liberal. it's a wealthy suburb of toronto - the kind of place the ndp just don't do well in. peel, on the other hand, is usually an ndp-liberal race. again: combining these together is tricky. it could mean that the conservatives are running away with halton and the ndp are running away with peel, or it could be obscuring closer races in aggregate. what i'm going to say is that this is weird - and that i don't like the way it's presented, as it suggests you're looking at the pcs v the ndp over a large region, when you're probably actually looking at each of them v the liberals separately in two distinct regions - and it's not clear how close it is. frank, man what are you up to?
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_1_2018b.pdf
i don't have any particular rejection of the brampton numbers, but it's only 3-4 seats. brampton is the kind of demographic that would swing from red to blue under ford. and, those numbers are not particularly bad for the liberals in york/durham, either, where there are a couple of conservative strongholds and a couple of conservative/liberal swing ridings.
at this point, after the first eight frames, this doesn't look like a weird election, and the seat count doesn't look likely to flip much. what's different here is the next two frames...
i accidentally cut the bottom off, but the next two frames are central and suburban toronto and those are powerful numbers that are suggestive of an ndp majority. i don't know what frank is smoking, suggesting otherwise. if the ndp can poll close to 50% over toronto in the end, that's suggestive of a clean sweep - which is 35-40 seats. that would be a near complete absorption of the liberal party by the ndp.
in the east & ottawa, again, the numbers are not exactly surprising. it's not clear what is ottawa and what is east, but the conservatives always dominate the rural east and the liberals usually do well in ottawa. with the liberals running over 30, it might suggest that they may lose a seat or two to the conservatives on the edges of the city.
i've been saying the same thing over and over again - this is about the 416.
and, despite what frank says, if those numbers are correct, you'd be looking at something like the following:
ndp ~65
conservatives ~30
liberals ~15
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