Thursday, June 26, 2014

the americans are planning an invasion, it's very clear - it was the purpose of distracting the russians in ukraine, and it's been expanded to an anti-maliki operation in iraq as well. this is about replacing russian/iranian influence with saudi/american influence. it's the real thing. it can't end with another outcome.

i just want to get a bit more in depth, though...

it's obviously incomparably worse than ukraine, but it's the same kind of irreversible pandora's box. the assad people understand that they're fighting a saudi invasion being driven by a ruthless ideology, and that a cease-fire is just an opportunity for them to regroup and replan. it follows that it is not only the case that the syrian government cannot accept a ceasefire, but it is the case that it cannot restrain from escalating. they've already begun bombing iraq, and they have to eventually begin bombing the saudis. that's the possible serious crisis point, as it brings everybody in, but it's irreversible.

thought experiment: suppose assad can theoretically expel the saudis from the country (and they're centered in iraq, now, remember). can we expect assad to quietly rebuild syria? no, because it understands that the saudis would be planning a new invasion. assad has no option but to seek to control iraq first and ultimately attempt to depose the saudi theocracy.

it follows that the americans have to remove assad. and it's been clear for months that they're preparing us for the action, which will neither be quick nor clean.


note: i thought this was june 5, 2014, rather than june 5, 2013. it doesn't change my comment, but it takes it to a slightly different context.