if mulroney pulls out, it doesn't change much, the votes just go directly to elliot.

but, what if tga pulls out?

then ford's life gets a little harder, as those votes mostly go to mulroney first.

let's say first choices are this:

ford: 48%
mulroney - 27%
elliot: 25%

you would expect elliot's votes to go mostly to mulroney. but, ford isn't going to need many of them...

i guess the way to say it is this: the new candidate turns a probable ford victory into a guaranteed one, via vote splitting with female voters.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.