Friday, October 30, 2026

what about kansas?

less results, but they're better.
 
poll source landline or internet end
date
outcome valid
poll?
https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/kansas landline oct 23 in the margin yes
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856723-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-kansas-october/ internet
and
landline
oct 26 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/30/we-polled-kansas-democrats-wanted-talk-republicans-not-so-much/ landline oct 26 d+1
past
margin*
yes
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/ internet oct 28 in the margin no


the washington post survey is notable but the analysis posted with the survey indicated that democrats in kansas were eager to talk about politics on the phone and republicans weren't. that makes sense to me. i did phone work as a kid. in kansas, democrats are far less numerous, and perhaps a little lonely.

these results are neither conclusive nor convincing. again, it's extremely unlikely that the democrats flip kansas, given the on the ground difficulties. the data does not support the idea that this is going to flip.