what about michigan?

poll source	landline or internet	end date	outcome	valid poll?
https://ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/files/soss/soss95.pdf	internet	oct 19	in the margin	no
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/10/27/democratic-candidate-el-sayed-leads-michigan-us-senate-race-new-poll-finds/	landline	oct 22	in the margin	yes
https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/	internet	oct 22	in the margin	no
https://polisci.msu.edu/_assets/MI_2026_pre_election_report.pdf	mail-outs sms	oct 23	these results were manpulated to "correct for bias". this is invalid. the outcome should not be reported.	no
https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/michigan	landline	oct 23	in the margin	yes
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856720-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-michigan-october/	internet and landline	oct 27	in the margin	low quality mixed sampling
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abdul-el-sayed-haley-stevens-feud-michigan-senate/?intcid=CNR-02-0623	internet	oct 27	in the margin	no
https://x.com/joshorton/status/2115883461076545615	?	oct 28	in the margin	no
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_michigan_senate	internet and landline	oct 29	in the margin	low quality mixed sampling

the only poll with a result that showed el sayed ahead and wasn't in the margin was conducted by a researcher at the university of michigan who claims to have "corrected the results for biases". right. i would describe that as rather open political manipulation.

everything else is pretty weak, given that michigan is historically democratic.

in theory, el-sayed should benefit in michigan from the things republicans have going for them in texas and kansas. if the cultural inertia and ground game is stronger for the republicans in texas, it should be stronger for the democrats in michigan.

however, it's not clear he can rely on that. el-sayed has struggled to win over key components of the democratic coalition and he may struggle to get the vote out. the outgoing governor and his opponent in the primary have been silent or hostile.

you also have to take a bradley effect into account.

i consider michigan to be in play in ways that kansas and texas aren't. i will not claim the data supports a flip, but it certainly doesn't support a hold, either.