i want to be clear that what the data in michigan suggests is that the democratic party is undergoing white flight - that white people are abandoning the democrats, which is structurally shifting the state to the republicans, without shifting it to the right.

that would suggest that michigan is following a similar path as ohio, and it's on the path to becoming a safe republican state, and will likely start electing more republicans to the senate, house and governorship.

the result is that the democrats may get taken over by these fringe identity groups, but they will be increasingly uncompetitive in state races. this should be disappointing, as the democrats had found a formula that worked in michigan: liberal white women. this is being attacked by a small minority and, as we've seen happen often in michigan, the white majority is getting up and leaving instead of digging in and fighting.

the democrats will need to address the issue of white flight in the party, or prepare to accept minority status in the state. that's the choice ahead of it.