| EPIC-MRA[296][F] | July 24–31, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | — | 11% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[219][A] | July 28–30, 2026 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 42% | — | 17% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications[297] | July 28–29, 2026 | 672 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 45% | — | 10% |
| Glengariff Group[298][O] | July 22–24, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 49% | 1% | 11% |
the first number is for the scruffy homeless-looking abdul el sayed. the second number is for the more presentable looking mike rogers.
michigan has not elected a republican senator since the early 90s. the margin has been narrowing in recent years, but the republicans have not won this state in decades. that makes it a reliable democrat-electing state. in fact, debbie stabenow reliably got over 50% and carl levin often got over 60%.
so why are these numbers so low? why can this guy barely poll at 40% when numbers in the state have recently been reliably 50+ for the democrats?
the first thing to note is that the republicans are actually polling about what they usually do; republican senate candidates usually poll in the mid to high 40s. it's rare for them to poll lower than 45%. this same candidate got 48% in 2024, and lost to elissa slotkin, who is turning out to be a very good senator. he will almost certainly get around 48% again.
what's happened is that large amounts of usually democratic voters are saying "i don't like this guy" by telling pollsters that they're undecided, and it's not because he's left-wing. he's not leftwing at all. like most arabs, he's extremely right-wing and accurately described as a quasi-fascist.
that undecided likely does not mean "undecided between the republicans and democrats". that 10-15% undecided is the actual left of the democratic party, who is uncomfortable with supporting a right-wing democrat and may decide not to vote at all. that's what just happened in the primary - very low turnout allowed the right-wing fringe candidate to win. if that is repeated in the general, the republicans will win in michigan for the first time in over 30 years and this tactic of putting scruffy homeless-looking people on the bill to appeal to a 2% minority will expose itself as foolish.
mr el-sayed's task is that he needs to convince the party's left to vote for him, instead of stay home, while not alienating moderates too deeply. he's not likely to succeed.
if turnout goes down by 10% in the end, the results will look something like:
mike rogers - 53%
sayed - 42%
others - 5%
and that would be the worst outcome for democrats in michigan in decades, by far. it is very likely what is coming.