i don't think that jd vance is likely to win a republican primary. he's not very representative of the republican party base. he primarily represents key voices in the tech industry. he's an appointment-level bureaucrat, he's not a populist politician.

rubio is a more likely candidate, but his file is going to hurt him, and he should probably consider taking a break to refocus.

the next republican president will likely not be in the current administration. that next person will need to figure out a new post reagan coalition vote driver, in a united states that no longer has abortion as a federal issue. this is going to necessarily dramatically change the composition of the republican coalition. exactly how that falls into place is not entirely predictable. they'll need to run the primaries to figure that out.

it's relatively likely that the democrats will win the presidency in 2028.