again: this polling firm is not measuring undecideds. but, you can see from the prime minister question that around 20% is non-committal.

this is a guess, but i would suspect that the data would be consistent if it were presented more rigorously; that you would see that scheer has really not moved, but that trudeau is losing support to "none of the above". we've seen this before - it was predictable.

it's going to be hard to avoid discussing the tax changes as a driver, if it cements itself. but, you should be careful: you're probably going to conclude that it's wealthy people that are changing their votes, and you'd probably be wrong. after all, the whole point of going after 1% of the population is that it's not going to swing the election.

increased enforcement for tax confiscation may hurt the liberal party's finances with the upper middle class, but it's going to be the working poor that's going to switch their votes to the conservatives. we're talking about people with very low levels of education that are easily confused by right-wing propaganda. they don't understand marginal tax rates, or even the basic concept of progressive taxation - they see a tax increase and assume they get targeted, that it threatens their employment prospects, etc. they've been brainwashed for decades with the idea that wealth trickles down from tax cuts, and they actually believe it.

i met somebody working at a subway last week that opposed her own wage increases because she was afraid she'd lose her job. she's going to vote conservative for the explicit reason of preventing herself from getting a raise. that's what happens when you get your information from the sun. the root of the problem is that she couldn't calculate the increased cost to the business on an overnight shift: she thinks $20/night in wages is going to cost her her job at a busy 24 hour fast food restaurant. she honestly didn't seem to be aware of how much money a busy subway makes. and, nobody seems to have told her anything about how a general wage increase should actually increase business.

but, they don't just make them ignorant - they make them angry, too. i bit my tongue. i had to.

if a swing to the conservatives comes out of this, it's going to be in the exact demographic that gerald butts thought he was appealing to - your working poor voters that are literally conditioned by the conservative press to reject anything that might be in their own interests.

cynical politicking has consequences.

the ndp have an opening here, too, but they have to understand their voters better.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/12df314f-eb51-46bb-9048-577d7da5cec9Fed%20Horserace%20Release%20Sept%20.pdf